Gary West previews the Arkansas Derby
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
For a million bucks, you might have expected more, especially since so many horses coming out of Oaklawn Park have enjoyed success in recent years, most notably Curlin and Smarty Jones. On the other hand, two of the most prominent Triple Crown candidates, Nobles Promise and Dublin, are in this Arkansas Derby -- not many preps this year have had as many, or at least didnt appear to have as many before the horses crossed the wire and there are three at Oaklawn if you include Super Saver, the winner of last years Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill.
After Saturdays million-dollar race, we might want to include him. His effort in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he made his seasonal debut, was deceptively good. He shot to the lead immediately, taking the field through an opening half-mile in 47.02 seconds, a very solid split over a surface that was rather dull. Schoolyard Dreams made an early move to challenge him, and they eyeballed each other until deep stretch, where Odysseus got up just in time for the victory.
But Super Saver persevered courageously, and it appeared to be the sort of solid effort on which to start or build a campaign. The son of Marias Mon should move forward from that. Most important, he could have a clear early lead Saturday and may be able to slow the pace down to something thats quite comfortable for him. Pulsion flashed speed in the Florida Derby, a futile strategy as it turned out, and the blinkers come off Saturday, suggesting different tactics will be employed.
Uh Oh Bango has speed, too. After being squeezed at the start, he rushed into a stalking position, 1 1/2 lengths behind Royal Express opening half in 47.70, in the Rebel. He remained a factor until the top of the stretch, where he faltered. He, too, could move forward, but hes most comfortable in that stalking position and probably wont be able to overtake Super Saver.
Dublin, last years Hopeful winner, has turned in two solid efforts at Oaklawn, finishing second in the Southwest and third in the Rebel. In both races, he overcame trouble. He raced wide in both turns of the Rebel and probably moved a little early. Hes capable of winning Saturday, no doubt about that, but hell need circumstances to smile on him if hes to be successful.
From here, Nobles Promise, a two-time stakes winner who has earned nearly $800,000, appears to be the horse to beat. Making his seasonal debut in the Rebel, he had a perfect trip sitting behind the two leaders and then advancing in the second turn. He looked like a winner in mid-stretch, where Lookin At Lucky rolled up on the outside. Nobles Promise fought back and finished with good energy, but he was neither as photogenic or as determined as the champion. In each of their three meetings, Nobles Promise has finished just behind Lookin At Lucky, and that alone would be a high recommendation.
Frankly, Ive always been skeptical about Nobles Promise, especially his ability to succeed in longer races. Hes by Cuvee, after all, and out of a Clever Trick mare, The Devils Trick. Thats not a pedigree that suggests classic possibilities. And Nobles Promise has been passed twice in deep stretch after making the lead, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and in the Rebel. But, of course, it was champion (along with Vale of York in the Juvenile) who passed him. And Nobles Promise galloped out on even terms with that same champion after the Rebel.
For me, Super Saver and Nobles Promise are nearly impossible to separate, and I suspect theyll be hard to separate at the wire, too.
For a million bucks, you might have expected more, especially since so many horses coming out of Oaklawn Park have enjoyed success in recent years, most notably Curlin and Smarty Jones. On the other hand, two of the most prominent Triple Crown candidates, Nobles Promise and Dublin, are in this Arkansas Derby -- not many preps this year have had as many, or at least didnt appear to have as many before the horses crossed the wire and there are three at Oaklawn if you include Super Saver, the winner of last years Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill.
After Saturdays million-dollar race, we might want to include him. His effort in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he made his seasonal debut, was deceptively good. He shot to the lead immediately, taking the field through an opening half-mile in 47.02 seconds, a very solid split over a surface that was rather dull. Schoolyard Dreams made an early move to challenge him, and they eyeballed each other until deep stretch, where Odysseus got up just in time for the victory.
But Super Saver persevered courageously, and it appeared to be the sort of solid effort on which to start or build a campaign. The son of Marias Mon should move forward from that. Most important, he could have a clear early lead Saturday and may be able to slow the pace down to something thats quite comfortable for him. Pulsion flashed speed in the Florida Derby, a futile strategy as it turned out, and the blinkers come off Saturday, suggesting different tactics will be employed.
Uh Oh Bango has speed, too. After being squeezed at the start, he rushed into a stalking position, 1 1/2 lengths behind Royal Express opening half in 47.70, in the Rebel. He remained a factor until the top of the stretch, where he faltered. He, too, could move forward, but hes most comfortable in that stalking position and probably wont be able to overtake Super Saver.
Dublin, last years Hopeful winner, has turned in two solid efforts at Oaklawn, finishing second in the Southwest and third in the Rebel. In both races, he overcame trouble. He raced wide in both turns of the Rebel and probably moved a little early. Hes capable of winning Saturday, no doubt about that, but hell need circumstances to smile on him if hes to be successful.
From here, Nobles Promise, a two-time stakes winner who has earned nearly $800,000, appears to be the horse to beat. Making his seasonal debut in the Rebel, he had a perfect trip sitting behind the two leaders and then advancing in the second turn. He looked like a winner in mid-stretch, where Lookin At Lucky rolled up on the outside. Nobles Promise fought back and finished with good energy, but he was neither as photogenic or as determined as the champion. In each of their three meetings, Nobles Promise has finished just behind Lookin At Lucky, and that alone would be a high recommendation.
Frankly, Ive always been skeptical about Nobles Promise, especially his ability to succeed in longer races. Hes by Cuvee, after all, and out of a Clever Trick mare, The Devils Trick. Thats not a pedigree that suggests classic possibilities. And Nobles Promise has been passed twice in deep stretch after making the lead, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and in the Rebel. But, of course, it was champion (along with Vale of York in the Juvenile) who passed him. And Nobles Promise galloped out on even terms with that same champion after the Rebel.
For me, Super Saver and Nobles Promise are nearly impossible to separate, and I suspect theyll be hard to separate at the wire, too.