Gary West advocates changing the Derby selection system
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Finally, someone in the racing media talking some common sense...
from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
When Mine That Bird won last year, with his 50-1 odds and his modest credentials, he guaranteed that for the foreseeable future the entry box for the Kentucky Derby will be full. Of course, even before Mine That Bird, Derby fever addled more minds than Sudoku, but this year the fever seems pandemic.
An inoculation is needed.
Churchill Downs limits Derby entries to 20 based on earnings in graded stakes. But that system, if its purpose is to produce the most worthy group and the most competitive race, doesn't seem to be working very well. The system doesn't distinguish between races run on dirt and those run on other surfaces, including turf; it doesn't distinguish between sprints and routes, or races run last year and this year. And it doesn't acknowledge that some stakes, such as the Wood Memorial and the Arkansas Derby, have become over the years a proving ground for Derby talent.
And so at this moment, about 40 horses are aimed at the Kentucky Derby, which will be run in 15 days. At least half of those horses haven't given anybody, except perhaps their feverish owners, reason to believe they could be competitive at Churchill at 11/4 miles against the best 3-year-olds in the country.
In his only race beyond a mile, for example, Homeboykris was beaten nearly 10 lengths. In his only race on dirt, Dean's Kitten was beaten 33 lengths. But they will probably line up in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, where they'll have about as much chance as a couple of marshmallows at a Boy Scout campfire.
Meanwhile, Pleasant Prince, who ran second by a nose in the Florida Derby, and Setsuko, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby, may not have sufficient earnings to get into the roseate field. A couple of horses could even try to boost their graded earnings up to Derby standards by running April 24 in the Derby Trial.
Trainer Wesley Ward recently explained that you only had to get into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby to have a 1-in-20 chance of winning the race. That, of course, is unmitigated flapdoodle, inspired by Mine That Bird and Derby fever. Not every horse in the gate has the same chance of winning; all Derby horses aren't equal. The Kentucky Derby isn't a lottery.
And to inoculate owners against that feverish attitude, Churchill should revise its criterion for restricting the field. Just as all the horses in the starting gate for the Derby aren't equal, all graded stakes aren't equal, either.
from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
When Mine That Bird won last year, with his 50-1 odds and his modest credentials, he guaranteed that for the foreseeable future the entry box for the Kentucky Derby will be full. Of course, even before Mine That Bird, Derby fever addled more minds than Sudoku, but this year the fever seems pandemic.
An inoculation is needed.
Churchill Downs limits Derby entries to 20 based on earnings in graded stakes. But that system, if its purpose is to produce the most worthy group and the most competitive race, doesn't seem to be working very well. The system doesn't distinguish between races run on dirt and those run on other surfaces, including turf; it doesn't distinguish between sprints and routes, or races run last year and this year. And it doesn't acknowledge that some stakes, such as the Wood Memorial and the Arkansas Derby, have become over the years a proving ground for Derby talent.
And so at this moment, about 40 horses are aimed at the Kentucky Derby, which will be run in 15 days. At least half of those horses haven't given anybody, except perhaps their feverish owners, reason to believe they could be competitive at Churchill at 11/4 miles against the best 3-year-olds in the country.
In his only race beyond a mile, for example, Homeboykris was beaten nearly 10 lengths. In his only race on dirt, Dean's Kitten was beaten 33 lengths. But they will probably line up in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, where they'll have about as much chance as a couple of marshmallows at a Boy Scout campfire.
Meanwhile, Pleasant Prince, who ran second by a nose in the Florida Derby, and Setsuko, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby, may not have sufficient earnings to get into the roseate field. A couple of horses could even try to boost their graded earnings up to Derby standards by running April 24 in the Derby Trial.
Trainer Wesley Ward recently explained that you only had to get into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby to have a 1-in-20 chance of winning the race. That, of course, is unmitigated flapdoodle, inspired by Mine That Bird and Derby fever. Not every horse in the gate has the same chance of winning; all Derby horses aren't equal. The Kentucky Derby isn't a lottery.
And to inoculate owners against that feverish attitude, Churchill should revise its criterion for restricting the field. Just as all the horses in the starting gate for the Derby aren't equal, all graded stakes aren't equal, either.