Interesting article include Ragozin numbers for the Oaks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
from Thoroughbred Times:
A year ago, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) was the setting for a parade of superlatives as it produced one of the most breathtaking victories in years by one of the fastest three-year-old fillies in decades.
On Friday, history will be put to the test rather quickly when another lightning-quick filly attempts to resurrect memories of Rachel Alexandras breakthrough performance in the 2009 Oaks at Churchill Downs.
While it would be foolish to expect Blind Luck to match Rachel Alexandras awe-inspiring 20¼-length victory, she does enter the 1 1/8-mile stakes with at least one striking similarity to the reigning Horse of the Year. Each had an exceptionally fast performance prior to the Oaks as Rachel Alexandra owned a career-best Ragozin speed figure of 3 and Blind Luck registered a top of 3½ earlier this month.
The comparison ends there. While Rachel Alexandra notched her 3 in February, Blind Lucks 3 1/2 came in her previous start, the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Reviewing what happened to Rachel Alexandra after her breakthrough figure is perhaps the best way to send up a red flag about banking on Blind Luck as a 6-to-5 favorite in a bulky field of 14.
After running her 3a demanding figure for a three-year-old filly in the early part of the yearRachel Alexandra slipped to a 6. She took a small step forward in her subsequent start with a 5 1/4 and then in her next race skyrocketed into the history books with a ¼ in the Oaks.
Given that scenario, chances are that Blind Luck, with Ragozin speed figures of 3 ½-95 ¾ in her previous three starts, also will take a step backward in her first race since her huge performance. Although she must be used in the exotics, a three- or four-point slide could spring open the door for an upset.
The filly most likely to take advantage of that opportunity should be the John Sadler-trained Crisp, who was fourth behind Blind Luck in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G1) on February 13 and then beat her when she won the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) on March 6. She has a line of 9 ¾-811 and could be ready for a new top off eight weeks of rest.
The California shipper has never raced on dirt but her breeding (by El Corredor out of a Sir Cat mare) indicates she will not be fazed by the switch in surfaces.
At 8-to-1, she looms the value in the race and is the horse to key in exotic wagers.
Another threat at highly attractive 8-to-1 odds is Amen Hallelujah, whose pattern is similar to that of Rachel Alexandra. She also opened her three-year-old campaign with a 3, then went backward to a 7 ¾ and inched forward to a 6 ¾ in her previous start, the Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2). With six weeks rest, she too could jump up a few points and pose a major threat to Blind Luckif the favorite bounces.
She might have been tabbed as the value in the race except that she faces the prospect of a wide trip from post 13.
If you are shopping for someone to add even more spice to the superfecta, the best choices would be one of three horses who last raced five weeks ago in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).
Quiet Temper won the race and has a line of 9 ¼ -9 ¼-14. She is 10-to-1 on the morning line. At a much more appealing 30-to-1, there is Champagne dOro, who was second and has a slight edge with a pair of 8 ¾ figures in her previous two starts.
Not to be overlooked is Jody Slew, who was seventh in the Fair Grounds Oaks and beat Quiet Temper one race earlier in the Silverbulletday Stakes (G3). She has a line of 11 ½-8 ½-11 ¾ and could circle back to a new top with the five weeks off.
She also is 30-to-1, which poses an intriguing backdrop to the possibility of déjà vu in race that gave us a superstar 12 short months ago.
P
Horse
Jockey
ML odds
Bob Ehalts comment
1.
Its Tea Time
A. Garcia
15-to-1
A 6¾ last time but 11 points of development this year and no dirt form are turnoffs
2.
Jody Slew
M. Mena
30-to-1
Worthy of inclusion in the exotics at the odds with a line of 11½ -8½-11¾
3.
Quiet Temper
R. Albarado
10-to-1
Has paired 9¼s but there is better value elsewhere in the field
4.
Age of Humor
R. Maragh
30-to-1
Has a forward-moving line of 10-14¼-15¾ but is on the slow side
5.
Blind Luck
R. Bejarano
6-to-5
Fastest horse in the race with a 3½ last time but may bounce at low odds
6.
Beautician
A. Solis
15-to-1
Needs more than makeup to hide a 15¼-10-31
7.
Crisp
J. Rosario
8-to-1
Looms the value play with a 9¾-811
8.
Tidal Pool
C. Borel
8-to-1
Regressed 3 points from a 3¾ with longer rest last time and might not improve now
9.
Bella Diamante
M. Smith
30-to-1
Has yet to crack a 10. Pass
10.
Champagne dOro
M. Garcia
30-to-1
Long odds add appeal to a pair of 8¾s
11.
Evening Jewel
K. Desormeaux
10-to-1
Is moving forward with a 6¼-710¼ but is untested on dirt and has less rest
12.
Ailalea
J. Velazquez
15-to-1
Hard to read, but is not overmatched with a 9¼-14¾-8¾
13.
Amen Hallelujah
J. Leparoux
8-to-1
Might have been the value from an inside post; is circling forward with a 6¾-7¾-3
14.
Joanies Catch
P. Lopez
30-to-1
A top of 10½ is not appealing from post 14
A year ago, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) was the setting for a parade of superlatives as it produced one of the most breathtaking victories in years by one of the fastest three-year-old fillies in decades.
On Friday, history will be put to the test rather quickly when another lightning-quick filly attempts to resurrect memories of Rachel Alexandras breakthrough performance in the 2009 Oaks at Churchill Downs.
While it would be foolish to expect Blind Luck to match Rachel Alexandras awe-inspiring 20¼-length victory, she does enter the 1 1/8-mile stakes with at least one striking similarity to the reigning Horse of the Year. Each had an exceptionally fast performance prior to the Oaks as Rachel Alexandra owned a career-best Ragozin speed figure of 3 and Blind Luck registered a top of 3½ earlier this month.
The comparison ends there. While Rachel Alexandra notched her 3 in February, Blind Lucks 3 1/2 came in her previous start, the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Reviewing what happened to Rachel Alexandra after her breakthrough figure is perhaps the best way to send up a red flag about banking on Blind Luck as a 6-to-5 favorite in a bulky field of 14.
After running her 3a demanding figure for a three-year-old filly in the early part of the yearRachel Alexandra slipped to a 6. She took a small step forward in her subsequent start with a 5 1/4 and then in her next race skyrocketed into the history books with a ¼ in the Oaks.
Given that scenario, chances are that Blind Luck, with Ragozin speed figures of 3 ½-95 ¾ in her previous three starts, also will take a step backward in her first race since her huge performance. Although she must be used in the exotics, a three- or four-point slide could spring open the door for an upset.
The filly most likely to take advantage of that opportunity should be the John Sadler-trained Crisp, who was fourth behind Blind Luck in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G1) on February 13 and then beat her when she won the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) on March 6. She has a line of 9 ¾-811 and could be ready for a new top off eight weeks of rest.
The California shipper has never raced on dirt but her breeding (by El Corredor out of a Sir Cat mare) indicates she will not be fazed by the switch in surfaces.
At 8-to-1, she looms the value in the race and is the horse to key in exotic wagers.
Another threat at highly attractive 8-to-1 odds is Amen Hallelujah, whose pattern is similar to that of Rachel Alexandra. She also opened her three-year-old campaign with a 3, then went backward to a 7 ¾ and inched forward to a 6 ¾ in her previous start, the Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2). With six weeks rest, she too could jump up a few points and pose a major threat to Blind Luckif the favorite bounces.
She might have been tabbed as the value in the race except that she faces the prospect of a wide trip from post 13.
If you are shopping for someone to add even more spice to the superfecta, the best choices would be one of three horses who last raced five weeks ago in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).
Quiet Temper won the race and has a line of 9 ¼ -9 ¼-14. She is 10-to-1 on the morning line. At a much more appealing 30-to-1, there is Champagne dOro, who was second and has a slight edge with a pair of 8 ¾ figures in her previous two starts.
Not to be overlooked is Jody Slew, who was seventh in the Fair Grounds Oaks and beat Quiet Temper one race earlier in the Silverbulletday Stakes (G3). She has a line of 11 ½-8 ½-11 ¾ and could circle back to a new top with the five weeks off.
She also is 30-to-1, which poses an intriguing backdrop to the possibility of déjà vu in race that gave us a superstar 12 short months ago.
P
Horse
Jockey
ML odds
Bob Ehalts comment
1.
Its Tea Time
A. Garcia
15-to-1
A 6¾ last time but 11 points of development this year and no dirt form are turnoffs
2.
Jody Slew
M. Mena
30-to-1
Worthy of inclusion in the exotics at the odds with a line of 11½ -8½-11¾
3.
Quiet Temper
R. Albarado
10-to-1
Has paired 9¼s but there is better value elsewhere in the field
4.
Age of Humor
R. Maragh
30-to-1
Has a forward-moving line of 10-14¼-15¾ but is on the slow side
5.
Blind Luck
R. Bejarano
6-to-5
Fastest horse in the race with a 3½ last time but may bounce at low odds
6.
Beautician
A. Solis
15-to-1
Needs more than makeup to hide a 15¼-10-31
7.
Crisp
J. Rosario
8-to-1
Looms the value play with a 9¾-811
8.
Tidal Pool
C. Borel
8-to-1
Regressed 3 points from a 3¾ with longer rest last time and might not improve now
9.
Bella Diamante
M. Smith
30-to-1
Has yet to crack a 10. Pass
10.
Champagne dOro
M. Garcia
30-to-1
Long odds add appeal to a pair of 8¾s
11.
Evening Jewel
K. Desormeaux
10-to-1
Is moving forward with a 6¼-710¼ but is untested on dirt and has less rest
12.
Ailalea
J. Velazquez
15-to-1
Hard to read, but is not overmatched with a 9¼-14¾-8¾
13.
Amen Hallelujah
J. Leparoux
8-to-1
Might have been the value from an inside post; is circling forward with a 6¾-7¾-3
14.
Joanies Catch
P. Lopez
30-to-1
A top of 10½ is not appealing from post 14
Comments
Amen Hallelujah
just wheeled her with the field for tomm!