Ragozin Insider: Preakness Stakes - Thoroughbred Times
randyf
Senior Member
Talk to Ragozin Thoroughbred Data partner Len Friedman about Saturdays 1 3/16-mile middle leg of the Triple Crown and uncertainty seems to be the morning-line favorite.
There are 12 horses in the race, Friedman said, and the only one I can toss out is Jackson Bend. Its a very tough, competitive race.
You have the Derby horses, who have decent [speed figure] lines coming back on short rest to face others with slower lines but better rest. No one jumps up at you. I really can't get excited about it as betting race.
While high odds normally drive the search for value in a wide-open field, the favorites cannot be overlooked in putting together exotic combinations. In this instance, they are capable of winning and relegating the longshots to the bottom half of the exotics. They simply do not offer value in such an evenly matched field.
The dilemma starts with the Kentucky Derby winner and 5-to-2 morning-line favorite, Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained Marias Mon colt paired 4 ¼s in the Derby and Friedman estimates that with two weeks rest he has a 10% chance of improving, a 20% chance of running another 4, and a 70% chance of regressing.
Those are anything but encouraging words about a favorite, yet the other Derby starters in the fieldLookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend, Paddy OPrado, and Dublinalso are returning on two weeks rest and only one of the new faces has ever run better than a 5. What that means is that Super Saver has some wiggle room to run slower and still figure in the exoticsor even win the race for that matter.
Lookin At Lucky, the 3-to-1 second choice, has a decent line of 6¼ - 8¾ - 4 that would make him an attractive play in the Belmont Stakes (G1) with five weeks rest. Off two weeks rest, while his numbers put him squarely in the mix, he does not figure to move forward as powerfully as he might have with a longer layoff.
Dublin, at 10-to-1, has posed the most baffling riddle for speed figure gurus. He keeps posting strong figures, bringing a line of 5½ - 3¼ - 4½ into the Preakness, yet his number power is weakened by only two weeks rest and post 12 on the far outside. He is also winless in six starts since winning the Hopeful Stakes (G1) last September.
Ultimately, in a balanced field like this one, the search for value winds up with the longer priced horses in the field. In this instance, Friedman says it will come down to either Aikenite or Yawanna Twist, based on their odds at post time.
Aikenites five-wide rally in The Cliffs Edge Derby Trial Stakes (G3) earned him a 3¾. That figure represented only a one-point new top for Pletchers other horse in the field, which boosts the stock of the 20-to-1 shot even more.
A drawback is that last year, when Aikenite registered a 4¾ in the Breeders Futurity (G1), he returned on four weeks rest in the Grey Goose Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) and soared to a 9 ½.
Yawanna Twist showed quality and improvement in his first three starts, advancing from a 9 to a 5 ½ to a 5 in the Gotham Stakes (G3). He took a step backwards with a 6 3/4 in a runner-up finish in the Illinois Derby (G3), but with six weeks off could return to the 5 or even post a new top.
At 30-to-1 that seems a fair gamble, and makes him, and Aikenite as well, interesting plays in the exoticsif you can earn the handicappers blue ribbon and pick the right ones to use them with.
P
Horse
Jockey
ML odds
Bob Ehalts comment
1.
Aikenite
J. Castellano
20-to-1
Could be the value off a career top of 3¾ last time. Could also bounce
2.
Schoolyard Dreams
E. Coa
15-to-1
Line of 10¼ - 7 - 7½ is not encouraging, even at the odds.
3.
Pleasant Prince
J. Leparoux
20-to-1
This will be his fourth race in eight weeks and he owns just one figure better than an 8¾. Pass
4.
Northern Giant
T. Thompson
30-to-1
Bland line of 10½ - 7 - 7 is similar to Schoolyard Dreams, but at least hes 30-to-1. A possibility for the superfecta
5.
Yawanna Twist
E. Prado
30-to-1
Has a line of 6¾ - 5 5¼ and six weeks rest; could move forward at a big price. Might be the value play
6.
Jackson Bend
M. Smith
12-to-1
Is going backward (8¾ - 8¼ - 6¼) and has short rest. Thats two strikes against him
7.
Lookin At Lucky
M. Garcia
3-to-1
Has a good pattern (6¼ - 8¾ - 4) but short rest is a concern, especially at the odds
8.
Super Saver
C. Borel
5-to-2
Derby winner has paired 4¼s but figures to regress with 2 weeks rest and offers no value
9.
Caracortado
P. Atkinson
10-to-1
Californian looms at least a light use in the exotics off a 9¾ - 7¼ - 5¾ and six weeks rest
10.
Paddy OPrado
K. Desormeaux
9-to-2
Improved slightly to a 5¾ in the Derby. Unlikely to run much faster than that on 2 weeks rest
11.
First Dude
R. Dominguez
20-to-1
Interesting longshot has a line of 8 - 9¼ - 6½ and could circle back to a new top with five weeks rest
12.
Dublin
G. Gomez
10-to-1
Has number power with a 5½ - 3¼ - 4½ but is winless since September. Post 12 does not help
There are 12 horses in the race, Friedman said, and the only one I can toss out is Jackson Bend. Its a very tough, competitive race.
You have the Derby horses, who have decent [speed figure] lines coming back on short rest to face others with slower lines but better rest. No one jumps up at you. I really can't get excited about it as betting race.
While high odds normally drive the search for value in a wide-open field, the favorites cannot be overlooked in putting together exotic combinations. In this instance, they are capable of winning and relegating the longshots to the bottom half of the exotics. They simply do not offer value in such an evenly matched field.
The dilemma starts with the Kentucky Derby winner and 5-to-2 morning-line favorite, Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained Marias Mon colt paired 4 ¼s in the Derby and Friedman estimates that with two weeks rest he has a 10% chance of improving, a 20% chance of running another 4, and a 70% chance of regressing.
Those are anything but encouraging words about a favorite, yet the other Derby starters in the fieldLookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend, Paddy OPrado, and Dublinalso are returning on two weeks rest and only one of the new faces has ever run better than a 5. What that means is that Super Saver has some wiggle room to run slower and still figure in the exoticsor even win the race for that matter.
Lookin At Lucky, the 3-to-1 second choice, has a decent line of 6¼ - 8¾ - 4 that would make him an attractive play in the Belmont Stakes (G1) with five weeks rest. Off two weeks rest, while his numbers put him squarely in the mix, he does not figure to move forward as powerfully as he might have with a longer layoff.
Dublin, at 10-to-1, has posed the most baffling riddle for speed figure gurus. He keeps posting strong figures, bringing a line of 5½ - 3¼ - 4½ into the Preakness, yet his number power is weakened by only two weeks rest and post 12 on the far outside. He is also winless in six starts since winning the Hopeful Stakes (G1) last September.
Ultimately, in a balanced field like this one, the search for value winds up with the longer priced horses in the field. In this instance, Friedman says it will come down to either Aikenite or Yawanna Twist, based on their odds at post time.
Aikenites five-wide rally in The Cliffs Edge Derby Trial Stakes (G3) earned him a 3¾. That figure represented only a one-point new top for Pletchers other horse in the field, which boosts the stock of the 20-to-1 shot even more.
A drawback is that last year, when Aikenite registered a 4¾ in the Breeders Futurity (G1), he returned on four weeks rest in the Grey Goose Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) and soared to a 9 ½.
Yawanna Twist showed quality and improvement in his first three starts, advancing from a 9 to a 5 ½ to a 5 in the Gotham Stakes (G3). He took a step backwards with a 6 3/4 in a runner-up finish in the Illinois Derby (G3), but with six weeks off could return to the 5 or even post a new top.
At 30-to-1 that seems a fair gamble, and makes him, and Aikenite as well, interesting plays in the exoticsif you can earn the handicappers blue ribbon and pick the right ones to use them with.
P
Horse
Jockey
ML odds
Bob Ehalts comment
1.
Aikenite
J. Castellano
20-to-1
Could be the value off a career top of 3¾ last time. Could also bounce
2.
Schoolyard Dreams
E. Coa
15-to-1
Line of 10¼ - 7 - 7½ is not encouraging, even at the odds.
3.
Pleasant Prince
J. Leparoux
20-to-1
This will be his fourth race in eight weeks and he owns just one figure better than an 8¾. Pass
4.
Northern Giant
T. Thompson
30-to-1
Bland line of 10½ - 7 - 7 is similar to Schoolyard Dreams, but at least hes 30-to-1. A possibility for the superfecta
5.
Yawanna Twist
E. Prado
30-to-1
Has a line of 6¾ - 5 5¼ and six weeks rest; could move forward at a big price. Might be the value play
6.
Jackson Bend
M. Smith
12-to-1
Is going backward (8¾ - 8¼ - 6¼) and has short rest. Thats two strikes against him
7.
Lookin At Lucky
M. Garcia
3-to-1
Has a good pattern (6¼ - 8¾ - 4) but short rest is a concern, especially at the odds
8.
Super Saver
C. Borel
5-to-2
Derby winner has paired 4¼s but figures to regress with 2 weeks rest and offers no value
9.
Caracortado
P. Atkinson
10-to-1
Californian looms at least a light use in the exotics off a 9¾ - 7¼ - 5¾ and six weeks rest
10.
Paddy OPrado
K. Desormeaux
9-to-2
Improved slightly to a 5¾ in the Derby. Unlikely to run much faster than that on 2 weeks rest
11.
First Dude
R. Dominguez
20-to-1
Interesting longshot has a line of 8 - 9¼ - 6½ and could circle back to a new top with five weeks rest
12.
Dublin
G. Gomez
10-to-1
Has number power with a 5½ - 3¼ - 4½ but is winless since September. Post 12 does not help