Belmont - Saturday
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Race 4
#5 Holla Bend (5/1 ml)
This horse ran a helluva race last time out. He broke from the 11-hole going six furlongs, then was checked in traffic after a half-mile. He recovered to advance quickly along the inside, then split horses to take the lead in midstretch before getting run down by the winner. THe first half-mile of this maiden race compares VERY favorably with the first half mile of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt on the same card, which was contested by the very fast older horses Attlia's Storm, Commentator, and Diabolical. Holla Bend's final time is also a virtual match for the excellent 2yo War Pass, who came back to win his next start impressively. This horse absolutely deserves to be favored (a strong favorite, in fact), but probably won't be due to the presence of The Green Monkey, last year's Fasig-Tipton sale-topper who brought a world-record price of $16 million. Should be great value here...
HRT record:
28 for 98 (29%)
$264.10 mutuels ($9.43 avg)
#5 Holla Bend (5/1 ml)
This horse ran a helluva race last time out. He broke from the 11-hole going six furlongs, then was checked in traffic after a half-mile. He recovered to advance quickly along the inside, then split horses to take the lead in midstretch before getting run down by the winner. THe first half-mile of this maiden race compares VERY favorably with the first half mile of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt on the same card, which was contested by the very fast older horses Attlia's Storm, Commentator, and Diabolical. Holla Bend's final time is also a virtual match for the excellent 2yo War Pass, who came back to win his next start impressively. This horse absolutely deserves to be favored (a strong favorite, in fact), but probably won't be due to the presence of The Green Monkey, last year's Fasig-Tipton sale-topper who brought a world-record price of $16 million. Should be great value here...
HRT record:
28 for 98 (29%)
$264.10 mutuels ($9.43 avg)
Comments
#4 The Leopard (5/2 ml)
Great value here, current 7/2 with about 18 mtp. Main threat is clearly Kodiak Kowboy (currently 4/5), and i would advocate playing an exacta box with that one. They'll likely run 1-2, whichever way it comes in.
The Leopard went off @ 5/2 and ran out. No excuse, just wasn't good enough.