Handicapping the MLB All-Star Game
DiscreetCat
Moderator
One thing i've always liked to do in regard to this game is bet the props, because there is always a wide array to choose from, and if you use simple logic in your handicapping, you can often come away with a nice edge.
The way i like to go about it is by examining the entire (offensive) rosters of both teams, in an attempt to determine playing time. Because as you know, there are a tidal wave of substitutions in the game, generally starting in the 3rd or 4th inning. So, that being the case, if you can identify which players might have the most at-bats during the game, you can focus in on props involving those players (particularly if they're matched against someone who might be leaving the game somewhat early). So let's have a look...
NL starting lineup
SS Ramirez
2B Prado
1B Pujols
DH Howard
3B Wright
LF Braun
CF Ethier
RF Hart
C Molina
NL bench
C McCann
1B A. Gonzalez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Furcal
SS Reyes
3B Rolen
3B Infante
OF Bourn
OF Byrd
OF Holliday
OF Young
AL starting lineup
RF Ichiro
SS Jeter
1B Cabrera
CF Hamilton
DH Vlad
3B Longoria
C Mauer
2B Cano
LF Crawford
AL bench
C Buck
1B Konerko
2B Kinsler
2B Wiggington
SS Andrus
3B Arod
3B Beltre
OF Bautista
OF Hunter
OF Swisher
OF Wells
DH Ortiz
Okay. On the NL side, the guy that stands out to me is Martin Prado, with only Brandon Phillips on the bench to replace him. He's also batting very high in the order, so that helps with ab's as well. Incidentally, the guy has been on fire all year.
I would say that Howard might stick around for a while, because the NL lists no DH on the bench, and because the NL is being managed by Howard's own manager. The thing is though, Howard plays first base, and of course that spot is currently occupied by Pujols. And there are two very capable first basemen on the bench for the NL, with Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto. So one of them will likely come in for Howard, with the other one replacing Pujols. You might say that makes only one backup for each of those guys, so perhaps they'll both play a while, particularly Pujols, even though there's 2 guys on the bench behind him.
You would think that Molina might leave pretty early so that the NL could get McCann's power in there, but of course catcher is the last place you'd want to be without a backup, so that could factor in.
I would venture to say that Hanley Ramirez might leave the game somewhat early, with both Reyes and Furcal waiting behind him. Hanley's a huge star, one of the biggest, but Reyes and Furcal are both well-established as you know.
So Prado is the guy that really stands out to me on the NL side.
For the AL, i would expect both Jeter and Cabrera to last well into the game. Jeter has only the first-time all-star Elvis Andrus behind him, and of course the AL side is being controlled by Jeter's own manager. Cabrera has only Konerko waiting behind him, (unless you count Ortiz), and Konerko seems very much like a late-inning guy.
Ichiro always seems to go deep into the game. Almost a given.
The other starter that stands out is Joe Mauer, who in addition to being one of the game's biggest stars, has only Buck behind him. You might even expect him to play the entire game, except that he's currently nursing a sore shoulder (in fact he sat out Sunday's game for the Twins because of that). I still expect him to go deep into the game, but the shoulder problem provides an asterik.
Longoria is a candidate to leave the game somewhat early, with Arod (of all people) waiting behind him. Especially with Yankee manager Girardi calling the shots. There's also Beltre listed at third. The only problem here is that, with the game in an AL park this year, they're using a DH. So Arod could conceivably come in for Vlad, with Longoria remaining in the game.
The way i like to go about it is by examining the entire (offensive) rosters of both teams, in an attempt to determine playing time. Because as you know, there are a tidal wave of substitutions in the game, generally starting in the 3rd or 4th inning. So, that being the case, if you can identify which players might have the most at-bats during the game, you can focus in on props involving those players (particularly if they're matched against someone who might be leaving the game somewhat early). So let's have a look...
NL starting lineup
SS Ramirez
2B Prado
1B Pujols
DH Howard
3B Wright
LF Braun
CF Ethier
RF Hart
C Molina
NL bench
C McCann
1B A. Gonzalez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Furcal
SS Reyes
3B Rolen
3B Infante
OF Bourn
OF Byrd
OF Holliday
OF Young
AL starting lineup
RF Ichiro
SS Jeter
1B Cabrera
CF Hamilton
DH Vlad
3B Longoria
C Mauer
2B Cano
LF Crawford
AL bench
C Buck
1B Konerko
2B Kinsler
2B Wiggington
SS Andrus
3B Arod
3B Beltre
OF Bautista
OF Hunter
OF Swisher
OF Wells
DH Ortiz
Okay. On the NL side, the guy that stands out to me is Martin Prado, with only Brandon Phillips on the bench to replace him. He's also batting very high in the order, so that helps with ab's as well. Incidentally, the guy has been on fire all year.
I would say that Howard might stick around for a while, because the NL lists no DH on the bench, and because the NL is being managed by Howard's own manager. The thing is though, Howard plays first base, and of course that spot is currently occupied by Pujols. And there are two very capable first basemen on the bench for the NL, with Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto. So one of them will likely come in for Howard, with the other one replacing Pujols. You might say that makes only one backup for each of those guys, so perhaps they'll both play a while, particularly Pujols, even though there's 2 guys on the bench behind him.
You would think that Molina might leave pretty early so that the NL could get McCann's power in there, but of course catcher is the last place you'd want to be without a backup, so that could factor in.
I would venture to say that Hanley Ramirez might leave the game somewhat early, with both Reyes and Furcal waiting behind him. Hanley's a huge star, one of the biggest, but Reyes and Furcal are both well-established as you know.
So Prado is the guy that really stands out to me on the NL side.
For the AL, i would expect both Jeter and Cabrera to last well into the game. Jeter has only the first-time all-star Elvis Andrus behind him, and of course the AL side is being controlled by Jeter's own manager. Cabrera has only Konerko waiting behind him, (unless you count Ortiz), and Konerko seems very much like a late-inning guy.
Ichiro always seems to go deep into the game. Almost a given.
The other starter that stands out is Joe Mauer, who in addition to being one of the game's biggest stars, has only Buck behind him. You might even expect him to play the entire game, except that he's currently nursing a sore shoulder (in fact he sat out Sunday's game for the Twins because of that). I still expect him to go deep into the game, but the shoulder problem provides an asterik.
Longoria is a candidate to leave the game somewhat early, with Arod (of all people) waiting behind him. Especially with Yankee manager Girardi calling the shots. There's also Beltre listed at third. The only problem here is that, with the game in an AL park this year, they're using a DH. So Arod could conceivably come in for Vlad, with Longoria remaining in the game.
Comments
Winner on Ethier.