Keying On Pico Dinero In Saratoga's 9th
warrenthebull
Member
For years I have applied the hard basic handicapping approach of video tape review to my handicapping. I am big on strength of race and trip. The sheets can tell the player about positive and negative approaches, but those numbers are often frayed. The reason is they do not place enough emphasis on head-on shots, horses who are caught in uncomfortable racing shapes, and/or caught three wide on a live pace. The nuggets to be found out there come from tedious review of the last race, and also paying attention to the ultimate changes such as first and second time geldings.
Today's last race at Saratoga is for maidens being offered for $25,000 going long on the turf. There are a number of variables that help to give one confidence to play a race. The race has several "deep closers." After review the key to this race is #11 Pico Dinero. Rativ Maraugh should be able to place him on or near the lead from his outside box. Last time from post two he lugged out severely in the opening 60 yards which is where they negotiate that first left-hand bend at Belmont. He raced second over in lane four. Pico Dinero was lapped on the leader to the far turn and under left-handed urging he lost his punch in the late going. I think it's significant Pico Dinero posted a half-mile drill over the Saratoga turf in 47 2/5. For New York, that's sizzling because most reported drills are posted conservatively slow.
I'm going to key Pico Dinero(11) with Evenforever(3), Raymond(5), Roulette Winner(6). I suspect Arrr Pirates Booty(8) may have been gelding but have no way to validate that conclusion. 11 with 3, 5 & 6.
Evenforever(3) is one of the main players in this race for two trip reasons. First off he did not seem to be comfortable when racing between foes down the backstretch. Then fourth to the top Evernforever then responded to Lezcano's left-handed urging. What the chart does not tell you is Evenforever rallied early in the stretch "in the face of another rider's flying whip." He was outfinished near the wire by Lion Under Oath, but overall, it was a better than looked effort by the Florida-bred.
Raymond(5) is being used because he comes off the best race of a not-so-productive 8-race career. He's 15-1 on the opening line and figures to be "overlayed" at post time since another apprentice rider will get a chance. Raymond was allowed to settle last time as a "live tempo" was the case with the front group. His running line is better than appears. On the first turn while sixth he lugged out, losing ground. The 51-to-1 shot then made a big wide move to the half-mile marker(48.17). Raymond was second on the turn. Once in the stretch he gained a short-lived lead with about an eighth of a mile to go. While no match for the easy winner Chromospere he appeared to come again once he had been passed. Take a look at the winner's this guy has chased home in his last four races. He's been idle since April 8 at Aqueduct but I found a number of reasons to use him in the exotics.
Roulette Winner(6) opens at 20-1 and could provide some fireworks at a huge number. First off he's making his second start in blinkers. His last finish was his best of four and he goes from the bug rider to Lezcano. Even though he's one of the "deep closers" I mentioned there are several reasons to expect a positive run. I like the positive rider switch and note he also worked nicely on the training track at the spa. Last time out Roulette Winner went inward at the start and was last early. Tenth on the rail to the far turn the bug rider had him in tight on the fence early in the stretch. He did finish gaining so there's reason to think this three-year-old gelding may be coming up to an even better race.
I suspect Arrr Pirates Booty(8) may have been gelded even though the Racing Form shows otherwise. Do I question this sort of information? Yes, because none of these racetracks have ever gotten the "first time gelding" issue right and the player be dammed. If I were to find out Arrr Pirates Booty had been given the ultimate "equipment change" he's be in my exotic box. Last time out from the rail he went in at the start over a muddy Belmont strip and lost two lengths immediately. He was third inside two into the turn. Fifth to the top and back 4-1/2 lengths(which is different than the chart), he was briskly spanked all through the stretch by Gomez. Today they drop him to his lowest level and that's why I think they have have cut him.
This gives you an idea how much time and effort we put into our trip handicapping. Dark Cove, entered for the main track only, has been scratched. Earlier on the card Charlie Fay, our man on the scene, tells us the sixth race is off the turf. He also reports there are six turf races on Thursday at the spa. Charle, by the way, will try and find out if we can get some valid first time gelding infoirmation at the spa this summer./
Today's last race at Saratoga is for maidens being offered for $25,000 going long on the turf. There are a number of variables that help to give one confidence to play a race. The race has several "deep closers." After review the key to this race is #11 Pico Dinero. Rativ Maraugh should be able to place him on or near the lead from his outside box. Last time from post two he lugged out severely in the opening 60 yards which is where they negotiate that first left-hand bend at Belmont. He raced second over in lane four. Pico Dinero was lapped on the leader to the far turn and under left-handed urging he lost his punch in the late going. I think it's significant Pico Dinero posted a half-mile drill over the Saratoga turf in 47 2/5. For New York, that's sizzling because most reported drills are posted conservatively slow.
I'm going to key Pico Dinero(11) with Evenforever(3), Raymond(5), Roulette Winner(6). I suspect Arrr Pirates Booty(8) may have been gelding but have no way to validate that conclusion. 11 with 3, 5 & 6.
Evenforever(3) is one of the main players in this race for two trip reasons. First off he did not seem to be comfortable when racing between foes down the backstretch. Then fourth to the top Evernforever then responded to Lezcano's left-handed urging. What the chart does not tell you is Evenforever rallied early in the stretch "in the face of another rider's flying whip." He was outfinished near the wire by Lion Under Oath, but overall, it was a better than looked effort by the Florida-bred.
Raymond(5) is being used because he comes off the best race of a not-so-productive 8-race career. He's 15-1 on the opening line and figures to be "overlayed" at post time since another apprentice rider will get a chance. Raymond was allowed to settle last time as a "live tempo" was the case with the front group. His running line is better than appears. On the first turn while sixth he lugged out, losing ground. The 51-to-1 shot then made a big wide move to the half-mile marker(48.17). Raymond was second on the turn. Once in the stretch he gained a short-lived lead with about an eighth of a mile to go. While no match for the easy winner Chromospere he appeared to come again once he had been passed. Take a look at the winner's this guy has chased home in his last four races. He's been idle since April 8 at Aqueduct but I found a number of reasons to use him in the exotics.
Roulette Winner(6) opens at 20-1 and could provide some fireworks at a huge number. First off he's making his second start in blinkers. His last finish was his best of four and he goes from the bug rider to Lezcano. Even though he's one of the "deep closers" I mentioned there are several reasons to expect a positive run. I like the positive rider switch and note he also worked nicely on the training track at the spa. Last time out Roulette Winner went inward at the start and was last early. Tenth on the rail to the far turn the bug rider had him in tight on the fence early in the stretch. He did finish gaining so there's reason to think this three-year-old gelding may be coming up to an even better race.
I suspect Arrr Pirates Booty(8) may have been gelded even though the Racing Form shows otherwise. Do I question this sort of information? Yes, because none of these racetracks have ever gotten the "first time gelding" issue right and the player be dammed. If I were to find out Arrr Pirates Booty had been given the ultimate "equipment change" he's be in my exotic box. Last time out from the rail he went in at the start over a muddy Belmont strip and lost two lengths immediately. He was third inside two into the turn. Fifth to the top and back 4-1/2 lengths(which is different than the chart), he was briskly spanked all through the stretch by Gomez. Today they drop him to his lowest level and that's why I think they have have cut him.
This gives you an idea how much time and effort we put into our trip handicapping. Dark Cove, entered for the main track only, has been scratched. Earlier on the card Charlie Fay, our man on the scene, tells us the sixth race is off the turf. He also reports there are six turf races on Thursday at the spa. Charle, by the way, will try and find out if we can get some valid first time gelding infoirmation at the spa this summer./
Comments
Nice writeup, too!