Spa Sat Race 3 Forum

John Greenhaw

Disclaimer: As most of you are already aware, I am a partner in # 7 Forum. That being said, he probably should have broken his maiden in his last race. When confronted by a rival in the final 1/16, he tried like hell to take a bite out of the other horse., which may have cost him the head bob. Nevertheless, that behavior is a sign of a quality racehorse who wants to win. In Saturday's race, he is drawn inside the speed, which will come from the 9, 10, and 11. The outside horses will scramble early for position going into the first turn which should allow Forum to position himself along the rail just behind the early pacesetters. The 10 and 11 have a history of backing-up after 6 furlongs and there is no reason to think they won't again. However, the 9 may be able to carry his speed a little longer. Entering the final turn, the speed should begin to fade and Forum should be positioned to take first shot at the leaders and attempt to hold off the #4, who is expected to improve 2nd start and closed ok in last race. As long as Forum does not engage the #4 and try to take a bite, he should prevail.

We get a jockey change as Javier Castellano reluctantly jumps ship to ride for the Phipps Family. This move is not totally a surprise since he has enjoyed a good relationship with Shug and the Phipps'. Yet, picking up Edgar Prado is hardly akin to having to go with a chopped liver bug-boy. So much for a brief analysis, the play is #7 win, and an exacta over the #4, with tri and super with the 3, 8, 10. Good Luck to all!

DiscreetCat

I just watched the race again, and i was really impressed with how game Forum was while in tight along the rail through the final sixteenth. The horse is extremely tough-minded, as you mentioned.

Btw, there are some extremely well-bred types lining up here. You mentioned Castellano jumping ship to ride the Phipps horse, and that one is a son of the outstanding multiple graded stakes winner Educated Risk. There's also a Storm Cat/Film Maker colt starting here for Mott, and Film Maker was of course a multiple graded stakes winner on turf. Mott and McGaughey hardly ever win first time out (especially around two turns), but they'll deserve a look here based on breeding alone, and i do find it interesting that Castellano is getting off Forum, who does look like the most likely winner here. I'll be looking at the race shortly, and i'll post whatever pertinent info i can find. Good luck tomorrow!

DiscreetCat

The McPeek firster Wild Pegasus (20/1 ml) is interesting. McPeek does very well with first-time starters going long, and he's had several 2yo firsters run well in turf routes during this meet. Most recently, Wild Pegasus worked heads-up with Promovedor Glory, whom you may remember ran a pretty good third in his debut, and looked more like a route horse from what i could tell (he debuted in a turf-sprint). Also, more importantly, Wild Pegasus' Aug 6 turf drill came in company with Santiva, whom i gave out on my site last Saturday, and who ran a strong second that day in a similar two-turn grass event. If Wild Pegasus can run as well as Santiva did last weekend, he would have a legit shot to win this race at a big price. Exacta material for sure.

FLYBYNIGHT

Great run, and a nice winner!

turfman

now that's information!!!!! thank you sir

fbwinners

thanks again

Houdini

John,thanks for the input....wish you the best with Forum!

DiscreetCat

Congrats, my man!

Mikenyce

Good call. Thanks