DRF Breeders Cup Update (and Watchmaker's Line)

DiscreetCat

Dear God. Have you guys seen these things???

Watchmaker makes Discreet Cat (who hasn't raced since March) the 2/1 favorite to win the Dirt Mile, and the 5/2 favorite to win the Sprint. He also lists Secret Gypsy, Indian Blessing, and Cry and Catch Me (who have 4 starts between them, all of them coming in maiden races) at 4/1, 5/1, and 6/1 to win the Juvenile FiIlies. How this guy attained his lofty position @ the Racing Form, i'll never know. I've seen some very questionable stuff from Watchmaker in the past, but this about takes the cake.

Mikenyce

Where did you find those Odds? Really leaning towards Tale of Ekati in the M Juvenille

DiscreetCat

They're listed in Friday's edition of the Racing Form. I could go on and on about it. For instance, in addition to listing a horse who ran LAST in his only appearance of the year as the favorite for TWO seperate Breeders Cup races, he's listing Midnight Lute @ 3/1 for the Dirt Mile. This DESPITE the fact that it's been reported by Watchmaker's employer (Daily Racing Form) that Midnight Lute is being trained up to the Sprint. So Watchmaker is listing a horse @ 3/1 for a race that he knows (or should know) the horse won't run in. Following up on that theme, he's listing Darjina @ 7/2 for the Turf Mile, a race she probably won't run in. You see, Darjina is owned by the Aga Khan, who passes on the Breeders Cup virtually every year. Not that i'd expect Watchmaker to know that. I mean, if he can't even grasp the American contingent, how can he be expected to know about the Europeans?

You mentioned Tale of Ekati, and yes, he's 100% the top Juvenile contender right now. So where does Watchmaker list him? As the third choice, of course, behind Majestic Warrior and Ready's Image. But even @ 5/1, Tale of Ekati is too low. That should tell you something about the odds of the two horses listed ahead of him...

Part of the reason 5/1 on Tale of Ekati is too low is that his trainer (Barclay Tagg) passed on the Juvenile last year with Nobiz Like Shobiz, who would've gone favored in the race. Why would you pass on a Breeders Cup race with the favorite? Well, to better prepare him for the Derby, which is over 6 months away. Brilliant, huh? And it worked out so well, too. Maybe Tagg will see the error of his ways, but who the hell knows. Wouldn't be a complete shock if he did it again.

2W2P2S

Couldn't agree more with this thread. Watchmaker is just plain silly................however, with regards to Tale of Ekati, Tagg is on record as saying he is running him in the juvenille, will not run any more preps before the race, just keep him in training. 5/1 is not a bad bet IMO.

DiscreetCat

Tagg made some comments about running Nobiz in the Juvenile last year, then later backed out. I'd be surprised if Tale of Ekati misses the Breeders Cup (Street Sense probably has as much to do with that as Nobiz), but when taking 5/1 (or anywhere close) 6 weeks ahead of time, it's something that must be factored in. As far as "real" odds, i believe Tuley mentioned in his column that he's 4/1 @ the Wynn. I'm guessing he wouldn't be much lower on raceday. No sense betting him now; you're taking on too much risk for a very small amount of extra gain.