Kentucky Derby futures
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Someone on another forum was touting Uncle Mo (whom i like, btw), and i felt i had to respond. A lot of these things we've already talked about here, and you guys are familiar with some of the examples i cited, but i thought you might enjoy reading the post anyway...
Horse futures are a something i know a lot about, perhaps more than anyone in the country. I'm not one to pat myself on the back (despite being a tout), but i can say that with confidence. I even ran the Derby and Breeders Cup futures for a Strip hotel for a few years, not that it means anything in the way of credentials (frankly, it means squat).
The point i wanted to make here is that horses like Uncle Mo should be avoided at all costs in Kentucky Derby futures. It has absolutely nothing to do with talent; i have no qualms with Uncle Mo at this point in time (in fact, i like him quite a bit). Rather, it has to do with the fact that these impressive early-season stakes-types are the ones getting all the press, and as a result of that, they get offered at ridiculously underlaid prices. Such as the current 20/1 (or whatever) on Uncle Mo with 7 months until raceday.
I don't have to tell you guys, these horses fall by the wayside at an alarming rate. They get injured, they don't stretch out effectively, etc. Keep in mind, the race is a mile-and-a-quarter, so winning a sprint or a one-turn mile (no matter how impressively) doesn't mean anything.
Have i bet horses to win the Derby that had only had a sprint race or two under their belt? Sure. The difference however was that i took big odds, like 150/1 or thereabouts. And frankly, even that was pushing it in some cases. The horses you see being offered in the low double-digits (say under 50/1 or so) this time of year just aren't offering the value you need to have any chance at beating these things long-term. They just have too much to prove, in addition to the injury factor. Even horses with impressive route wins and solid pedigrees should be avoided if the price isn't acceptable. A perfect example from last year would be Take Control, who looked fantastic winning arounds two-turns in his career debut for the multiple Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert (in January, i think). He was being offered in the 20/1 range after that race. I couldn't knock the horse (he looked as good as any at the time), but there was just too much time left to even consider taking that kind of price. And not long thereafter, Take Control was off the Derby Trail. Injured himself in a workout, if memory serves. Incidentally, just to finish off the thought on Take Control, another factor that needed to be considered with that horse was his lack of graded earnings (he had none). That can't be overlooked. You can't win the Derby unless you can enter the Derby, and some horses just can't accumulate the neccessary earnings in time (and they seem to need more and more every year now). A good recent example of a horse that received major Derby hype, but actually had a pretty slim chance of making the Derby due to earnings, would be Dunkirk. He had still zero graded earnings heading into the Florida Derby, if memory serves (same deal with Big Brown, which made a future bet on him pretty close to a Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby parlay). Keep those graded earnings in mind.
So what horses DO you want to look for? That's the big question, of course. In my opinion, the horses that make good investments in Derby futures are the up-and-coming, under-the-radar horses that start to build impressive resumes around January, February, or even March. Take Control would've fit that description if he had been offering a decent price (say 75/1 or so). A perfect recent example would be The Pamplemousse, who ran well (but still lost) in his first couple of sprint starts before really blossoming when he stretched out to two turns (December, i think). He was still available around 125/1 when he broke his maiden around two turns @ Hollywood. He went on to win the San Rafael and Sham Stakes before being scratched (as the morning-line favorite) on the morning of the Santa Anita Derby. Another good example, from last year, would be Winslow Homer. He broke his maiden going 7 furlongs at Saratoga, disappeared for a while, then went to Philly Park (where his trainer keeps a string) and won a two-turn allowance race by 10 lengths or so, looking every bit like the kind of horse who would appreciate added distance. He was still available in the 80/1 range after winning that two-turn allowance race, and went on to win the Holy Bull Stakes @ Gulfstream in very impressive fashion before hitting the sidelines with an injury (note the recurring pattern of injury with these horses, ahem).
Other times (and these are the best times), horses are set on earnings and performing well late into the Derby season, but places are sometimes lazy/ignorant and don't update their sheets. I once got a sizable bet down on Afleet Alex @ 18/1 after he won the Arkansas Derby by open lengths in fast time. You just have to keep your eyes open, and stay diligent. You never know when a small number might become a large number, without ever moving. Things are always changing.
You also have to keep an open mind. Barbaro, for example, came from some turf-stakes wins @ Calder (note the positive two-turn experience there) before switching to dirt for the Holy Bull Stakes around February. The closest i've ever come to making a big score on the Derby was a ticket on Peace Rules @ 200/1, another former turf horse who switched to dirt (he had the lead in the stretch before tiring to third, the year that Funny Cide won). Big Brown debuted on turf (around two turns) as a 2yo @ Saratoga, then won an off-the-turf allowance race in his 3yo debut before taking the Florida Derby. You just never know where these horses might come from.
If a horse like Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova wins the Derby, they win. More power to them. Nothing against those horses, i like them, but you're not gonna make any money on them. You're not going to win anyway, most likely, because identifying the Derby winner early is like finding a needle in a haystack (it's hard enough on raceday, as we all know). That's why you need big prices, because you're a huge underdog to ever cash the ticket. The way to put yourself in a good spot on Derby Day (assuming your horses make it that far) is to take some talented, late-blooming types at some big numbers. Demand value, guys.
Horse futures are a something i know a lot about, perhaps more than anyone in the country. I'm not one to pat myself on the back (despite being a tout), but i can say that with confidence. I even ran the Derby and Breeders Cup futures for a Strip hotel for a few years, not that it means anything in the way of credentials (frankly, it means squat).
The point i wanted to make here is that horses like Uncle Mo should be avoided at all costs in Kentucky Derby futures. It has absolutely nothing to do with talent; i have no qualms with Uncle Mo at this point in time (in fact, i like him quite a bit). Rather, it has to do with the fact that these impressive early-season stakes-types are the ones getting all the press, and as a result of that, they get offered at ridiculously underlaid prices. Such as the current 20/1 (or whatever) on Uncle Mo with 7 months until raceday.
I don't have to tell you guys, these horses fall by the wayside at an alarming rate. They get injured, they don't stretch out effectively, etc. Keep in mind, the race is a mile-and-a-quarter, so winning a sprint or a one-turn mile (no matter how impressively) doesn't mean anything.
Have i bet horses to win the Derby that had only had a sprint race or two under their belt? Sure. The difference however was that i took big odds, like 150/1 or thereabouts. And frankly, even that was pushing it in some cases. The horses you see being offered in the low double-digits (say under 50/1 or so) this time of year just aren't offering the value you need to have any chance at beating these things long-term. They just have too much to prove, in addition to the injury factor. Even horses with impressive route wins and solid pedigrees should be avoided if the price isn't acceptable. A perfect example from last year would be Take Control, who looked fantastic winning arounds two-turns in his career debut for the multiple Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert (in January, i think). He was being offered in the 20/1 range after that race. I couldn't knock the horse (he looked as good as any at the time), but there was just too much time left to even consider taking that kind of price. And not long thereafter, Take Control was off the Derby Trail. Injured himself in a workout, if memory serves. Incidentally, just to finish off the thought on Take Control, another factor that needed to be considered with that horse was his lack of graded earnings (he had none). That can't be overlooked. You can't win the Derby unless you can enter the Derby, and some horses just can't accumulate the neccessary earnings in time (and they seem to need more and more every year now). A good recent example of a horse that received major Derby hype, but actually had a pretty slim chance of making the Derby due to earnings, would be Dunkirk. He had still zero graded earnings heading into the Florida Derby, if memory serves (same deal with Big Brown, which made a future bet on him pretty close to a Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby parlay). Keep those graded earnings in mind.
So what horses DO you want to look for? That's the big question, of course. In my opinion, the horses that make good investments in Derby futures are the up-and-coming, under-the-radar horses that start to build impressive resumes around January, February, or even March. Take Control would've fit that description if he had been offering a decent price (say 75/1 or so). A perfect recent example would be The Pamplemousse, who ran well (but still lost) in his first couple of sprint starts before really blossoming when he stretched out to two turns (December, i think). He was still available around 125/1 when he broke his maiden around two turns @ Hollywood. He went on to win the San Rafael and Sham Stakes before being scratched (as the morning-line favorite) on the morning of the Santa Anita Derby. Another good example, from last year, would be Winslow Homer. He broke his maiden going 7 furlongs at Saratoga, disappeared for a while, then went to Philly Park (where his trainer keeps a string) and won a two-turn allowance race by 10 lengths or so, looking every bit like the kind of horse who would appreciate added distance. He was still available in the 80/1 range after winning that two-turn allowance race, and went on to win the Holy Bull Stakes @ Gulfstream in very impressive fashion before hitting the sidelines with an injury (note the recurring pattern of injury with these horses, ahem).
Other times (and these are the best times), horses are set on earnings and performing well late into the Derby season, but places are sometimes lazy/ignorant and don't update their sheets. I once got a sizable bet down on Afleet Alex @ 18/1 after he won the Arkansas Derby by open lengths in fast time. You just have to keep your eyes open, and stay diligent. You never know when a small number might become a large number, without ever moving. Things are always changing.
You also have to keep an open mind. Barbaro, for example, came from some turf-stakes wins @ Calder (note the positive two-turn experience there) before switching to dirt for the Holy Bull Stakes around February. The closest i've ever come to making a big score on the Derby was a ticket on Peace Rules @ 200/1, another former turf horse who switched to dirt (he had the lead in the stretch before tiring to third, the year that Funny Cide won). Big Brown debuted on turf (around two turns) as a 2yo @ Saratoga, then won an off-the-turf allowance race in his 3yo debut before taking the Florida Derby. You just never know where these horses might come from.
If a horse like Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova wins the Derby, they win. More power to them. Nothing against those horses, i like them, but you're not gonna make any money on them. You're not going to win anyway, most likely, because identifying the Derby winner early is like finding a needle in a haystack (it's hard enough on raceday, as we all know). That's why you need big prices, because you're a huge underdog to ever cash the ticket. The way to put yourself in a good spot on Derby Day (assuming your horses make it that far) is to take some talented, late-blooming types at some big numbers. Demand value, guys.
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