"Rationally speaking"? (Response to 12/11/10 article by Andrew Beyer)
handicapper
Junior Member
Short of a devastating performance in the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Classic serving as a rubber match between contending horses, there is no correlation between winning the Breeders Cup and Horse of the Year. Andrew Beyer examples have little to do with the current controversy, and his bias against Zenyatta prevents him from appreciating her greatness.
Mr. Beyers first example, the 1989 Horse of the Year decision, bears no resemblance to the 2010 Horse of the Year controversy. When Sunday Silence won the Classic, he had beaten Easy Goer for the third time, in their fourth 1989 match-up. Their races were run over four different racetracks. Interestingly, Easy Goers only victory came on a track he had been successful on previously. Blame and Zenyatta only raced against each other one time, at a racetrack that only Blame had successfully campaigned.
Mr. Beyers second reasoned example refers to Ghostzapper winning Horse of the Year over the better known Smarty Jones, as a case where performance prevailed over popularity. Even though these horses didnt meet in the Breeders Cup, Mr. Beyer ignores the fact Ghostzappers devastating performance earned him Horse of the Year. If Ghostzapper had run his Classic race in any Grade 1 race, and then not run in the Breeders Cup Classic, he still would have been Horse of The Year. By Mr. Beyers own count, Ghosthoppers Beyer number exceeded Smarty Jones by double digits. Again, this is not the case with Blame and Zenyatta.
Paradoxically, Mr. Beyer argues only merit in a given calendar year should determine Horse of the Year. He uses Rachael Alexander, to support this point. However,Rachael never raced in the Breeders Cup Classic or at the classic distance of mile and a quarter (a tacit point). Had the Preakness Stakes been a mile a quarter she would have lost to a troubled Mine That Bird. In this same year, Zenyatta remained undefeated in top company and won the Breeders Cup Classic at a mile and a quarter, beating males. Merit is an important factor, in determining Horse of the Year, but even merit requires careful analysis. This brings us to why Mr. Beyer has such a difficult time with choosing Zenyatta, as the Horse of the Year.
For the same reasons Mr. Beyer picked Zenyatta to be off the board in the Breeders Cup Classic, he fails to understand her merits. His complaints fall into three main categories: 1) Zenyattas come from behind running style; 2) Zenyattas 2010 campaign, facing mainly other fillies and mares on synthetic racetracks; and 3) Zenyattas relatively low Beyer numbers and narrow winning margins.
Mr. Beyer fails to grasp the essence of Zenyattas greatness. She is a champion who always overcomes any adversity she is confronted with. Whether the pace is fast or slow, whether she saves ground or goes wide, whether she ships across the country, whether she carries weight as high as 129 pounds, whether she runs off a layoff or after a series of races, whether she races on a synthetic or a dirt surface, she always finds the wire first. Her style is not to devastate a field and win by big margins. She enjoys prevailing over her competition. She has been trained to conserve herself, while winning. Perhaps this is one of the reasons she is so consistent?
Zenyattas nose loss in the Classic should not be held against her. Rather, her efforts should be carefully considered. The soon to be seven year old mare was scheduled to be retired, after her Breeders Cup victory in 2009. She stretched her undefeated streak to 19 in 2010. She shipped across the country, to run in a race that Mr. Beyer gave her no chance to hit the board, while she was risking her perfect record. She was racing at twilight for the first time (under lights and flashing cameras). She performed (to cheering ovations) for the Churchill Downs crowd prior to the race and in the post parade. She was racing on a track she had never raced upon. She had every reason to be a little disoriented in the early going, and to spot her field probably as much as five lengths, before her jockey explained to her that she was in a race to determine her immortality. Additionally, she encountered some traffic trouble and altered course through the stretch, only to lose by diminishing inches. Blames victory was neither devastating or a rubber match victory. It would be hard to imagine Blame winning three of four against Zenyatta, especially at other racetracks, or even at Churchill Downs.
How great is Zenyatta? Somehow she got back into the Classic and almost won. How much more meritorious was her effort than Blames? Much more than the same Beyer number that Blamed earned, in his perfect trip victory over his favorite racetrack. Zenyattas Beyer could be conservatively adjusted to 115+, based upon the trip she had. While Beyer numbers alone dont accurately measure greatness, they reflect Zenyattas ability to rise to the level of her competition. Greatness is a matter of talent and the will to win, despite adversity. Throughout 2010, Zenyatta consistently showed her greatness, at the highest levels. She has earned Horse of the Year, based upon her merits. Even Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line one time at Churchill Downs.
Mr. Beyers first example, the 1989 Horse of the Year decision, bears no resemblance to the 2010 Horse of the Year controversy. When Sunday Silence won the Classic, he had beaten Easy Goer for the third time, in their fourth 1989 match-up. Their races were run over four different racetracks. Interestingly, Easy Goers only victory came on a track he had been successful on previously. Blame and Zenyatta only raced against each other one time, at a racetrack that only Blame had successfully campaigned.
Mr. Beyers second reasoned example refers to Ghostzapper winning Horse of the Year over the better known Smarty Jones, as a case where performance prevailed over popularity. Even though these horses didnt meet in the Breeders Cup, Mr. Beyer ignores the fact Ghostzappers devastating performance earned him Horse of the Year. If Ghostzapper had run his Classic race in any Grade 1 race, and then not run in the Breeders Cup Classic, he still would have been Horse of The Year. By Mr. Beyers own count, Ghosthoppers Beyer number exceeded Smarty Jones by double digits. Again, this is not the case with Blame and Zenyatta.
Paradoxically, Mr. Beyer argues only merit in a given calendar year should determine Horse of the Year. He uses Rachael Alexander, to support this point. However,Rachael never raced in the Breeders Cup Classic or at the classic distance of mile and a quarter (a tacit point). Had the Preakness Stakes been a mile a quarter she would have lost to a troubled Mine That Bird. In this same year, Zenyatta remained undefeated in top company and won the Breeders Cup Classic at a mile and a quarter, beating males. Merit is an important factor, in determining Horse of the Year, but even merit requires careful analysis. This brings us to why Mr. Beyer has such a difficult time with choosing Zenyatta, as the Horse of the Year.
For the same reasons Mr. Beyer picked Zenyatta to be off the board in the Breeders Cup Classic, he fails to understand her merits. His complaints fall into three main categories: 1) Zenyattas come from behind running style; 2) Zenyattas 2010 campaign, facing mainly other fillies and mares on synthetic racetracks; and 3) Zenyattas relatively low Beyer numbers and narrow winning margins.
Mr. Beyer fails to grasp the essence of Zenyattas greatness. She is a champion who always overcomes any adversity she is confronted with. Whether the pace is fast or slow, whether she saves ground or goes wide, whether she ships across the country, whether she carries weight as high as 129 pounds, whether she runs off a layoff or after a series of races, whether she races on a synthetic or a dirt surface, she always finds the wire first. Her style is not to devastate a field and win by big margins. She enjoys prevailing over her competition. She has been trained to conserve herself, while winning. Perhaps this is one of the reasons she is so consistent?
Zenyattas nose loss in the Classic should not be held against her. Rather, her efforts should be carefully considered. The soon to be seven year old mare was scheduled to be retired, after her Breeders Cup victory in 2009. She stretched her undefeated streak to 19 in 2010. She shipped across the country, to run in a race that Mr. Beyer gave her no chance to hit the board, while she was risking her perfect record. She was racing at twilight for the first time (under lights and flashing cameras). She performed (to cheering ovations) for the Churchill Downs crowd prior to the race and in the post parade. She was racing on a track she had never raced upon. She had every reason to be a little disoriented in the early going, and to spot her field probably as much as five lengths, before her jockey explained to her that she was in a race to determine her immortality. Additionally, she encountered some traffic trouble and altered course through the stretch, only to lose by diminishing inches. Blames victory was neither devastating or a rubber match victory. It would be hard to imagine Blame winning three of four against Zenyatta, especially at other racetracks, or even at Churchill Downs.
How great is Zenyatta? Somehow she got back into the Classic and almost won. How much more meritorious was her effort than Blames? Much more than the same Beyer number that Blamed earned, in his perfect trip victory over his favorite racetrack. Zenyattas Beyer could be conservatively adjusted to 115+, based upon the trip she had. While Beyer numbers alone dont accurately measure greatness, they reflect Zenyattas ability to rise to the level of her competition. Greatness is a matter of talent and the will to win, despite adversity. Throughout 2010, Zenyatta consistently showed her greatness, at the highest levels. She has earned Horse of the Year, based upon her merits. Even Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line one time at Churchill Downs.
Comments
He argues that Blame deserves the award hands-down because he won the Classic, but Zenyatta won it last year, and he voted against her. Funny how it's different this time around...