Key Race thread
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Houdini suggested that we start a Key Race thread, and i think that's a pretty good idea. I'm curious though as to how you guys keep track of these? I know that myself, i used to buy the charts once-a-week (now called the DRF Simulcast Weekly, btw), and i would physically go back and circle the name of every winning horse on the SoCal circuit in the chart of that horse's previous race. Then, when you see race starting to develop multiple circles, you know that it's a key race. Problem is, after i got a computer and started doing most of my handicapping online, i stopped doing that.
So my question is, what kind of methods (if any) do you guys use to identify key races? Myself, i'm going mostly by recollection (which is often helped by seeing the list of horses on the side-panel of the video replays, btw). That, and of course the horse's name in italics in the Racing Form PP's (which only covers the first three finishers, of course).
Anyway, whoever spots a key race (or more to the point, a developing key race), let's start posting it here. It certainly can't hurt.
So my question is, what kind of methods (if any) do you guys use to identify key races? Myself, i'm going mostly by recollection (which is often helped by seeing the list of horses on the side-panel of the video replays, btw). That, and of course the horse's name in italics in the Racing Form PP's (which only covers the first three finishers, of course).
Anyway, whoever spots a key race (or more to the point, a developing key race), let's start posting it here. It certainly can't hurt.
Comments
I have a section of my handicapping notes dedicated to key races. And these are entered after a race I feel has the potential to be key, and then is updated as runners come out of that race. What I look for and how races hit that list:
*There has to be at least some of the horses showing PP's
*A race gets entered in my notes if horses that have been running competetively at the level get whipped in the race. Ex: let's say in a MdnAlw race a runner has been running at a 6F-7F distance for a few races and has finished within 1-4 lengths of the winner in all of his races and ITM or just out in those races. Suddenly, in the same condition, he is absolutely smoked by the field and finishes much further back. This race would immediately get entered as a high potential key race (I just like to call them races above the level). He was competetive in the condition against other fields, smoked by this one
*Same thing for finding races that are way harder than the condition and finding runners coming out of them.........if a horse(s) is/are competing against $16K claimers as an example, and running competetively, then this horse/horses are smoked in a race under the same condition, great chance that race was much better than the level and will be key coming out of.
*Obviously, if it's numerous runners in the race that were competetive previously at the level, and finish up the track in the race, the greater the probability that race will be live for the future.
*I also use it to find "dud" races...........horses running at the same level and running terribly all of a sudden run competetive in a race. Good chance it was a weak race for the level and top finishing horses will be overbet in their next starts.
I generally handicap the opposite. When a horse has a bunch of trouble and still wins I of course upgrade the horse, but downgrade the field.
He did appear to lug in and brush the rail coming off the turn, but it barely slowed him down at all. In fact, when you watch the head-on replay, it's unclear whether he even touched the rail at all (though it certainly looked like it on the pan shot).
Also, the race was exceptionally fast for a maiden sprint on the inner track, with fractions of 22.41, 45.54, 57.48, and 103.87.
Btw, Fulton Street (mentioned above by Bruno2) came back to win @ Aqueduct today, paying $15.20
$4.60 $3.00 $2.60
Also he was scratched yesterday for this softer spot.
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Won paid $7
As pointed out in another thread 1 horse has exited the The Factor race and came back won.
Incidentally, my pick in the 7th (C Tizz Run) was scratched as well.
R12 $3 Ex Box 7 with 1,2,6 $2 Tri box 1,2,6,7 $50 W/P #7
#7 Sinai Comes out of the San Vincente Stakes which both The Factor and Premier Pegasus scored big on their next race. Going against the probale favorite #11 Astrology who I just don’t think will rate here right off the shelf.