Friday play from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Santa Anita - Race 8
#1A Ten Devils (8/5 ml) ***part on an entry, no play on the other half if Ten Devils scratches***
I've been waiting on this horse to run back for a while now. You might remember we played Shelter Cove in that Nov 18 race, and i thought he was a bit of a standout there, but this first-time starter for Mandella was getting a ridiculous amount of support on the toteboard (bet down to 5/2 at post time from a morning line of around 10/1, if memory serves). It seemed likely that someone must have known something about this horse, especially after he exploded from out of nowhere in the late going to score a convincing win. This will be his first start around two turns, and it comes on the class jump, but Mandella is simply outstanding going sprint-to-route (24% with a big flat-bet profit), and this horse is obviously bred to run long as a son of Rock Hard Ten. Plus, it looked like he was just getting started in the late stages of his debut run, so that's a positive indicator as well. Obviously, i'm not real happy with the morning line here, but i wonder if it might be his entrymate Robie The Cat (coming off a 6-length win and accompanying field-best Beyer) who might be the cause of that. Incidentally, there's not a lot of pace in here, and there's a decent chance that Robie the Cat could get loose early. So a nice little backup plan there. In any case, despite the short morning line, i don't think we'll go favored here, as #3 Moment of Weakness (5/2 ml) is coming off a strong second behind the next-out Hollywood Futurity winner Comma to the Top in a graded turf stakes at this same distance. So if there's an "obvious" horse in this race, it would seem to be him. Good chance the morning line odds will be flip-flopped here, with us getting the better price on a horse who looks to be a very exciting young stakes prospect for Mandella.
HRT record:
76 for 280 (27%)
$639.20 mutuels ($8.41 avg)
#1A Ten Devils (8/5 ml) ***part on an entry, no play on the other half if Ten Devils scratches***
I've been waiting on this horse to run back for a while now. You might remember we played Shelter Cove in that Nov 18 race, and i thought he was a bit of a standout there, but this first-time starter for Mandella was getting a ridiculous amount of support on the toteboard (bet down to 5/2 at post time from a morning line of around 10/1, if memory serves). It seemed likely that someone must have known something about this horse, especially after he exploded from out of nowhere in the late going to score a convincing win. This will be his first start around two turns, and it comes on the class jump, but Mandella is simply outstanding going sprint-to-route (24% with a big flat-bet profit), and this horse is obviously bred to run long as a son of Rock Hard Ten. Plus, it looked like he was just getting started in the late stages of his debut run, so that's a positive indicator as well. Obviously, i'm not real happy with the morning line here, but i wonder if it might be his entrymate Robie The Cat (coming off a 6-length win and accompanying field-best Beyer) who might be the cause of that. Incidentally, there's not a lot of pace in here, and there's a decent chance that Robie the Cat could get loose early. So a nice little backup plan there. In any case, despite the short morning line, i don't think we'll go favored here, as #3 Moment of Weakness (5/2 ml) is coming off a strong second behind the next-out Hollywood Futurity winner Comma to the Top in a graded turf stakes at this same distance. So if there's an "obvious" horse in this race, it would seem to be him. Good chance the morning line odds will be flip-flopped here, with us getting the better price on a horse who looks to be a very exciting young stakes prospect for Mandella.
HRT record:
76 for 280 (27%)
$639.20 mutuels ($8.41 avg)
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