Risen Star play from DiscreetPicks

DiscreetCat

Fair Grounds - Race 10

#6 Machen (6/1 ml)

Neil Howard colt broke last in his debut but then moved up powerfully to sweep to the lead around the turn and draw away impressively in solid time. Stretched out to two-turns last time and sent off at 1/9 against an overmatched field, he broke slowly again and was caught in traffic for almost the entire race, clearly full of run but having to sit and wait behind the slow-pokes before squeezing through a small opening around midstretch and then powering away late. Very talented colt, who is laughably listed @ 6/1 here, apparently because his Beyer dropped into the 70's due to the snail-like pace (and resulting final time) that he had no control over. Big value at even half that price; looks like a good one.

HRT record:

77 for 286 (27%)

$651.00 mutuels ($8.45 avg)

DiscreetCat

Went off @ 2/1 and ran fourth. Appeared to be traveling quite well into the lane while still covered up, and I thought he was going to win if he found an opening. Eventually was able to shift outside into the clear (a little later than I hoped), but didn't show the kind of explosiveness I was expecting as he flattened out through the final sixteenth. Disappointing.

Incidentally, the winner was Mucho Macho Man, which flatters the Holy Bull winner Dialed In.

Houdini

DC he brokly slowly again.All 3 starts off slowly major issues,alot of talent.

DiscreetCat

You're absolutely right about that, and it wasn't lost on me when i was handicapping the race. I figured he would be coming from off the pace anyway though, so i didn't think it would matter a whole lot today. Definitely not the kind of thing you're looking for in a Derby horse though, with that huge 20-horse log-jam.

Horsin~Aro

It was actually a very strange race to me. It was like they were all shippers into a 1st time race at Calder, like they were all pretty stuck in the deep track. The slower pace certainly didn't help but I am not sure if it mattered too much after. I am not sure if I could put any of this field into a Derby prospective except the possible 1 and 2 finishers if even them.

DiscreetCat

Machen may run into some graded-earnings issues unless he runs very big in the Louisiana Derby.

Same deal with The Factor, unless he wins the San Vicente today. And even then, he would still be lacking a two-turn start. Worth noting however that Baffert won the Derby with his San Vicente winner Silver Charm.

rayphil

i think bob gots everything plyed out in his mind with the factor...dont be suprised if he runs a even race and not a monster one....he will still win but saving some...