Anyone see the late odds-drop on Soldat?

DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
edited February 2011 in Horse Racing Forum
In the biggest race of the weekend, and ceratinly one of the larger betting pools of the weekend, Soldat went into the gate @ 2/1. The then came out the other side @ 7/5, and went on to win the race, of course.

How do the odds drop past 9/5, 8/5, and 3/2 in a matter of about 20 seconds, in a race as large as the Fountain of Youth?

Comments

  • donniepdonniep Junior Member
    edited February 2011
    At 2/1 Soldat has ~28% of the win pool going in; and ~35% when he finishes up at 7/5.Assuming 1/4 of the pool comes in after he enters the gate, then the late money, taken as a separate pool, would make him a 1/2 fave with breakage. Actually, a dollar would win 57 cents before breakage.
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited February 2011
    Hard to believe that he can be bet like a 1/2 shot, when he was wasn't even the favorite at all with 0 mtp. Especially in a race with that kind of money already in the pool, and the other horse (To Honor And Serve) being widely regarded as one of the Derby favorites.

    Btw, thanks for the analysis Don. Interesting to know the math behind it.
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