Rebel Picks from Brisnet
John Greenhaw
Senior Member
FRIDAY, MARCH 18, 2011
Racing Headlines
The Factor tries two-turn experiment in Rebel
The Factor and Sway Away (left) will clash again while making their two-turn debuts (Benoit Photos)
To borrow Bill O'Reilly's tag line, the spin stops here in Saturday's $300,000 Rebel S. (G2) for the brilliantly-speedy THE FACTOR (War Front): will the Bob Baffert pupil pass his two-turn audition? Or might he fail to live up to the hype and burst his Kentucky Derby (G1) bubble? Either way, The Factor is entering the no-spin zone at Oaklawn Park.
The 1 1/16-mile Rebel shapes up as a true test for the highly-regarded colt. His 12 rivals include a strong locally-based group, led by Southwest S. (G3) winner ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) and runner-up J P'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal), and fellow Southern California shipper SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex), who comes off a terrific second to The Factor in the February 20 San Vicente S. (G2) at Santa Anita.
Named for O'Reilly's top-rated cable news program, The Factor has sizzled in his two career victories, both at speed-friendly Santa Anita. On the meet's opening day, December 26, the gray generated plenty of buzz when breaking his maiden by 8 1/4 lengths in a track-record time of 1:06.98 for six furlongs. A contrarian, on the other hand, might respond that the track was playing freakishly fast that day. Later on the card, the seven-furlong track record set by Hall of Famer Spectacular Bid, which stood for almost 31 years, was also eclipsed.
The Factor battled foot issues in January and, as a result, lost valuable training time. Baffert transferred him across town to Hollywood Park, where he was able to get in two works on the Cushion Track in advance of the San Vicente. Despite not being perfectly fit for the seven-furlong affair, The Factor burned off his pace rivals through torrid fractions, opened up a 1 1/2-length advantage, and had enough left to stave off the furious rally of Sway Away by three-quarters of a length. The result was flattered when San Vicente third-placer Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) came back to romp in last Saturday's San Felipe S. (G2). Yet, a contrarian could contend that The Factor's task was aided considerably by the track bias in favor of speed.
With a pedigree and running style that prompt questions about his stamina, The Factor sets out to prove that he can harness his natural speed over a route of ground. He has drawn in the middle of the field, in post 6, and should have little difficulty in securing the early lead with Baffert's go-to rider Martin Garcia. The only other Rebel entrant who might attempt to go with him early is the Wayne Lukas-trained SARATOGA RED (Eddington), a debut winner going a mile here in the slop on February 24.
The Factor, who arrived at Oaklawn Wednesday, galloped about 1 1/2 miles at around 8:15 a.m. (CDT) Thursday.
"He got over the track good this morning," assistant trainer Jim Barnes said. "He just jumps such a long way out there. He has a huge stride."
Sway Away will also be stretching out to two turns for the first time, but his pedigree and running style suggest that he'll improve with added distance. A hard-charging runner-up to J P's Gusto in the August 8 Best Pal S. (G2) at Del Mar, Sway Away was sidelined for the next six months until the San Vicente. The Jeff Bonde trainee trailed early in that sprint, but uncorked a huge move down the stretch to reach contention. Although drawing up to The Factor's flank, he could not get any closer, and must hope that the change of venue, and longer trip, will help him turn the tables. Garrett Gomez renews his partnership with the deep closer, who will break from post 9.
Sway Away is not the only son of Afleet Alex who bids to erase his sire's bad memories of the Rebel. Afleet Alex suffered the only unplaced effort of his career in the 2005 Rebel, finishing an uncharacteristic last before being diagnosed with a lung infection, and the champion sends out two potential avengers Saturday.
The other is ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who has had more than his share of bad luck this meet at Oaklawn. Conditioned by his sire's trainer, Tim Ritchey, Elite Alex virtually lost all chance when breaking awkwardly in a January 15 allowance/optional claimer. Yet he regrouped and nearly pulled off the victory, just being outdueled by ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor). In the Southwest, Elite Alex was compromised in a different way. Parked out wide throughout, he got up for third. The two losses have not discouraged his rider, Calvin Borel. The winner of three of the past four runnings of the Kentucky Derby, Borel has said that Elite Alex reminds him of Street Sense, the 2007 Derby champ. His luck didn't improve at the Rebel draw, however, for he wound up in post 10.
Southwest winner Archarcharch will try to prove that his upset of J P's Gusto (left) was no fluke (Oaklawn Park/Coady Photography)
Elite Alex hopes that a better trip will enable him to overturn the Southwest result, where he was beaten a total of 2 1/4 lengths by Archarcharch. The Jinks Fires-trained Archarcharch offers an instructive example of how the trip can make all the difference. After breaking his maiden in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds on December 18, he earned even-money favoritism in the January 17 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn. Unfortunately, he argued the early pace in that two-turn debut, and ultimately faded to a distant fourth behind CALEB'S POSSE (Posse) and DREAMINOFTHEWIN (Successful Appeal). Off such a disappointing effort, Archarcharch was overlooked at 14-1 in the Southwest. Reverting to stalking tactics there, he got back on track with a one-length upset of J P's Gusto. Regular rider Jon Court will look to carve out another score, this time from the rail.
Fires will nearly have the field surrounded, for his other contender, BLUEGRASS JAM (Bluegrass Cat), has drawn post 12. He was most recently third in an off-the-turf allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds, and two starts back, played second fiddle to J W BLUE (Sky Mesa) in an allowance at Oaklawn.
"They've got us wedged pretty well down in there," Fires said of Archarcharch's rail draw. "It means we will have to leave there running, but that's the way it goes. I feel a little better about the other one outside (Bluegrass Jam) because he's a one-run horse. He will have to use a little to slide over, but I know he will make his run."
J P's Gusto is entitled to move forward in his second start for new trainer Joe Petalino. Previously based in Southern California with David Hofmans, the bay was an accomplished two-year-old last season. Besides his Best Pal victory over Sway Away, he also garnered such notable events as the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Hollywood Juvenile Championship (G3). J P's Gusto was not as successful when stepping up to 1 1/16 miles, finishing second in the Norfolk S. (G1) and CashCall Futurity (G1) and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He was switched to Petalino's barn in order to compete in Oaklawn's stakes series for three-year-olds, and opened his campaign with a troubled second in the Southwest. Ramon Dominguez once again flies in for the mount aboard J P's Gusto, who will break just to the inside of The Factor from post 5.
PICKO'S PRIDE (Cactus Ridge) was another who met trouble in an eventful running of the Southwest, with the 79-1 longshot having to wait in traffic en route to his fourth-place effort. Caleb's Posse, the Smarty Jones winner, didn't have clear running room either at the decisive juncture and checked in sixth.
Though the Southwest didn't pan out well for Caleb's Posse, trainer Donnie Von Hemel's other promising colt, Alternation, impressed in an allowance on the same Presidents' Day program. The Pin Oak Stable homebred swept to a convincing 3 1/4-length score over Dreaminofthewin at this same 1 1/16-mile trip, and in the process, fueled speculation about how he might have done in the Southwest. The patient strategy could pay off in the end for Alternation, who brings a three-race winning streak into his stakes debut.
Trainer Tony Dutrow has taken a similarly cautious approach with J W Blue. A last-to-first allowance winner at this track and distance on January 29, he opted to skip the Southwest. J W Blue enters the Rebel off a 49-day freshening, but must overcome being marooned widest of all in post 13.
At the other end of the spectrum comes GLINT (Sharp Humor), wheeling back on just 14 days' rest following his third in the March 14 Mountain Valley S. in his comeback. The Kellyn Gorder colt was two-for-two last year, capping his season with a smart victory in the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile S. on the synthetic Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs. Glint picks up the services of Gabriel Saez in this first try past 6 1/2 furlongs.
J W Blue and Bluegrass Jam will be coupled as a two-horse mutuel field because Oaklawn's infield toteboard only has space for 12 betting interests.
Blind Luck, Havre de Grace renew rivalry in Azeri
Havre de Grace (inside) and Blind Luck face off in the Azeri (Bill Denver/Equi-Photo)
Champion BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) was last seen in the winner's circle after taking the August 21 Alabama S. (G1), but has contracted a serious case of seconditis since that 10-furlong contest. The first to hold her off was HAVRE DE GRACE (Saint Liam), who got her neck in front on the wire of the Cotillion S. (G2) to score her initial stakes victory.
Those two knocked heads a total of four times in 2010, and on Saturday continue their rivalry as part of the seven-horse field entered in the $150,000 Azeri S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Blind Luck and Havre de Grace both ended their sophomore campaigns in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1), and were best of the rest behind winner Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song). Blind Luck managed to gain a measure of revenge for her Cotillion loss when finishing second, a length in front of Havre de Grace, in the championship event. She was one vote shy of being the unanimous choice for champion three-year-old filly, but hopes were high that last year's Kentucky Oaks (G1) queen would carry her form forward into her four-year-old season.
Blind Luck began the year in the El Encino S. (G2) over Santa Anita's newly installed dirt surface, and fell short to Always a Princess. Those two met again in the La Canada S. (G2) last out, and Always a Princess once again asserted her authority to be 3 1/4 lengths clear of Blind Luck on the wire. A bad step in the Santa Margarita Invitational (G1) on March 12 put an end to the racing career of Always a Princess, leaving the way clear for Blind Luck to take back the distaff division. The 1 1/16-mile Azeri is merely a steppingstone to the April 15 Apple Blossom H. (G1), but offers the perfect opportunity for the chestnut lass to regain her confidence and return to the winner's circle under new jockey Garrett Gomez.
Havre de Grace will do everything in her power to stop that from happening with Ramon Dominguez taking over riding duties from Jeremy Rose. The bay filly is returning off a 134-day break, having not competed since the Breeders' Cup, but will be saddled by new trainer Larry Jones. While he has yet to collect a trophy in the race, the conditioner is no stranger to getting his picture taken in the Oaklawn Park winner's circle.
Havre de Grace has been working up a storm in advance of her return, posting three bullet moves since mid-February, and recorded century-topping BRIS Speed ratings in her past four races. The four-year-old just missed in her first two tries against Blind Luck, running second by a nose and a neck, respectively, in the Delaware Oaks (G2) and Alabama, but will be returning to the 8 1/2-furlong distance on Saturday in which she captured the Cotillion.
Absinthe Minded will do her best to grab the Azeri spotlight (Oaklawn Park/Coady Photography)
Though much of the attention will be focused on Blind Luck and Havre de Grace, ABSINTHE MINDED (Quiet American) could steal the show for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The bay lass actually ran fifth behind those two in the Cotillion last year, but in two starts this season recorded front-running scores by a total of 8 1/4 lengths. The most recent of those came in the Bayakoa S. over track and distance, where she earned a 104 Speed figure for her victory, and Absinthe Minded could be tough to catch if she gets loose on the lead under Calvin Borel.
Also entered in the Azeri are TIDAL POOL (Yankee Gentleman) and SPACY TRACY (Awesome Again). Another Lukas trainee, Tidal Pool placed in last year's Kentucky Oaks and Fantasy S. (G2). The bay miss faded to fourth after taking the lead in the Pippin S. in her four-year-old debut on January 22, but returned against optional claiming rivals last out to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths. Terry Thompson, second in the current rider standings, was aboard for both of those starts and stays in the saddle on Saturday.
Like Havre de Grace, Spacy Tracy is making her six-year-old bow in this spot after being off for 113 days. She dropped just two races from seven starts last year, including the Top Flight H. (G2) and Justakiss S. to conclude her campaign. The Tony Dutrow runner's first start against stakes rivals came in the Justakiss, and she is seeking a third consecutive black-type victory here. Undefeated from two tries at the distance, Spacy Tracy has recorded back-to-back bullet moves in advance of the Azeri and keeps Rose in the irons.
Completing the field are KIMBER LILY (Sunday Break [Jpn]), winner of her last three, and Grade 1-placed multiple stakes victress SHOTGUN GULCH (Thunder Gulch).
the Derby, but I won't dismiss his chances on the front end in the Rebel.
SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) also invades from Southern California. The Jeff Bonde pupil returned from a 6 1/2-month layoff with an encouraging second to The Factor in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2), offering a visually impressive late rally, and he'll stretch out for the first time on Saturday. He's an obvious candidate to handle the added ground with his breeding and his BRIS numbers are strong, but I think Sway Away will be overbet off perhaps a false finish last time.
Sway Away was still last turning for home in the San Vicente and the front runners were coming back to him in the stretch after an opening half-mile in :43 2/5. I've seen a lot of horses offer a similar move, rallying dramatically for a minor award while not seriously threatening the winner, and they seldom improve upon the effort with a victory in their next start. Sway Away can't afford to leave himself too much to do in the Rebel stretch, but he's eligible to outperform my expectations.
J P'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal) was in tight during the short stretch run of the Southwest (G3) but managed to finish up well for second once clear. The Grade 1 winner could find the 1 1/16-mile distance within his scope and must be viewed as a dangerous stalk-and-pounce candidate with Ramon Dominguez, but he's zero-for-four in two-turn races.
ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who has been favorably compared to Derby winner Street Sense by jockey Calvin Borel, rallied into a threatening position at the top of the Southwest stretch but lacked the needed rally, settling for third. He was fanned six wide, but it marked the second straight start where he came up a little short in the final furlong. On the flip side, the Tim Ritchey trainee gained valuable stakes seasoning that afternoon and should receive a more favorable pace set-up in the Rebel. Elite Alex could be along in time.
Southwest winner ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) will look to secure favorable early positioning from his rail post. He broke his maiden three starts back in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds and exited a disappointing fourth-place effort in the Smarty Jones with a foot problem that quickly healed. The Jinks Fires charge was overlooked at 14-1 last time and could offer decent value once again in the Rebel. I like what I've seen from the improving colt and will use him in any multi-race wagers.
ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) is my top pick. Following a seven-length maiden win at Remington Park in December, trainer Donnie Von Hemel resisted the urge to throw his colt straight into stakes waters, electing to run him in a pair of allowance events at Oaklawn. The late runner responded with two excellent wins, defeating Elite Alex the first time and Smarty Jones runner-up Dreaminofthewin (Successful Appeal) in the latter, and he's posted two recent bullet works in preparation for his stakes debut. Alternation is well drawn in post 2 and should be in full flight after the leaders on the far turn. I think he can carry his momentum forward in the stretch for a minor upset.
Enjoy the racing.
Racing Headlines
The Factor tries two-turn experiment in Rebel
The Factor and Sway Away (left) will clash again while making their two-turn debuts (Benoit Photos)
To borrow Bill O'Reilly's tag line, the spin stops here in Saturday's $300,000 Rebel S. (G2) for the brilliantly-speedy THE FACTOR (War Front): will the Bob Baffert pupil pass his two-turn audition? Or might he fail to live up to the hype and burst his Kentucky Derby (G1) bubble? Either way, The Factor is entering the no-spin zone at Oaklawn Park.
The 1 1/16-mile Rebel shapes up as a true test for the highly-regarded colt. His 12 rivals include a strong locally-based group, led by Southwest S. (G3) winner ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) and runner-up J P'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal), and fellow Southern California shipper SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex), who comes off a terrific second to The Factor in the February 20 San Vicente S. (G2) at Santa Anita.
Named for O'Reilly's top-rated cable news program, The Factor has sizzled in his two career victories, both at speed-friendly Santa Anita. On the meet's opening day, December 26, the gray generated plenty of buzz when breaking his maiden by 8 1/4 lengths in a track-record time of 1:06.98 for six furlongs. A contrarian, on the other hand, might respond that the track was playing freakishly fast that day. Later on the card, the seven-furlong track record set by Hall of Famer Spectacular Bid, which stood for almost 31 years, was also eclipsed.
The Factor battled foot issues in January and, as a result, lost valuable training time. Baffert transferred him across town to Hollywood Park, where he was able to get in two works on the Cushion Track in advance of the San Vicente. Despite not being perfectly fit for the seven-furlong affair, The Factor burned off his pace rivals through torrid fractions, opened up a 1 1/2-length advantage, and had enough left to stave off the furious rally of Sway Away by three-quarters of a length. The result was flattered when San Vicente third-placer Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) came back to romp in last Saturday's San Felipe S. (G2). Yet, a contrarian could contend that The Factor's task was aided considerably by the track bias in favor of speed.
With a pedigree and running style that prompt questions about his stamina, The Factor sets out to prove that he can harness his natural speed over a route of ground. He has drawn in the middle of the field, in post 6, and should have little difficulty in securing the early lead with Baffert's go-to rider Martin Garcia. The only other Rebel entrant who might attempt to go with him early is the Wayne Lukas-trained SARATOGA RED (Eddington), a debut winner going a mile here in the slop on February 24.
The Factor, who arrived at Oaklawn Wednesday, galloped about 1 1/2 miles at around 8:15 a.m. (CDT) Thursday.
"He got over the track good this morning," assistant trainer Jim Barnes said. "He just jumps such a long way out there. He has a huge stride."
Sway Away will also be stretching out to two turns for the first time, but his pedigree and running style suggest that he'll improve with added distance. A hard-charging runner-up to J P's Gusto in the August 8 Best Pal S. (G2) at Del Mar, Sway Away was sidelined for the next six months until the San Vicente. The Jeff Bonde trainee trailed early in that sprint, but uncorked a huge move down the stretch to reach contention. Although drawing up to The Factor's flank, he could not get any closer, and must hope that the change of venue, and longer trip, will help him turn the tables. Garrett Gomez renews his partnership with the deep closer, who will break from post 9.
Sway Away is not the only son of Afleet Alex who bids to erase his sire's bad memories of the Rebel. Afleet Alex suffered the only unplaced effort of his career in the 2005 Rebel, finishing an uncharacteristic last before being diagnosed with a lung infection, and the champion sends out two potential avengers Saturday.
The other is ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who has had more than his share of bad luck this meet at Oaklawn. Conditioned by his sire's trainer, Tim Ritchey, Elite Alex virtually lost all chance when breaking awkwardly in a January 15 allowance/optional claimer. Yet he regrouped and nearly pulled off the victory, just being outdueled by ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor). In the Southwest, Elite Alex was compromised in a different way. Parked out wide throughout, he got up for third. The two losses have not discouraged his rider, Calvin Borel. The winner of three of the past four runnings of the Kentucky Derby, Borel has said that Elite Alex reminds him of Street Sense, the 2007 Derby champ. His luck didn't improve at the Rebel draw, however, for he wound up in post 10.
Southwest winner Archarcharch will try to prove that his upset of J P's Gusto (left) was no fluke (Oaklawn Park/Coady Photography)
Elite Alex hopes that a better trip will enable him to overturn the Southwest result, where he was beaten a total of 2 1/4 lengths by Archarcharch. The Jinks Fires-trained Archarcharch offers an instructive example of how the trip can make all the difference. After breaking his maiden in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds on December 18, he earned even-money favoritism in the January 17 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn. Unfortunately, he argued the early pace in that two-turn debut, and ultimately faded to a distant fourth behind CALEB'S POSSE (Posse) and DREAMINOFTHEWIN (Successful Appeal). Off such a disappointing effort, Archarcharch was overlooked at 14-1 in the Southwest. Reverting to stalking tactics there, he got back on track with a one-length upset of J P's Gusto. Regular rider Jon Court will look to carve out another score, this time from the rail.
Fires will nearly have the field surrounded, for his other contender, BLUEGRASS JAM (Bluegrass Cat), has drawn post 12. He was most recently third in an off-the-turf allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds, and two starts back, played second fiddle to J W BLUE (Sky Mesa) in an allowance at Oaklawn.
"They've got us wedged pretty well down in there," Fires said of Archarcharch's rail draw. "It means we will have to leave there running, but that's the way it goes. I feel a little better about the other one outside (Bluegrass Jam) because he's a one-run horse. He will have to use a little to slide over, but I know he will make his run."
J P's Gusto is entitled to move forward in his second start for new trainer Joe Petalino. Previously based in Southern California with David Hofmans, the bay was an accomplished two-year-old last season. Besides his Best Pal victory over Sway Away, he also garnered such notable events as the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Hollywood Juvenile Championship (G3). J P's Gusto was not as successful when stepping up to 1 1/16 miles, finishing second in the Norfolk S. (G1) and CashCall Futurity (G1) and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He was switched to Petalino's barn in order to compete in Oaklawn's stakes series for three-year-olds, and opened his campaign with a troubled second in the Southwest. Ramon Dominguez once again flies in for the mount aboard J P's Gusto, who will break just to the inside of The Factor from post 5.
PICKO'S PRIDE (Cactus Ridge) was another who met trouble in an eventful running of the Southwest, with the 79-1 longshot having to wait in traffic en route to his fourth-place effort. Caleb's Posse, the Smarty Jones winner, didn't have clear running room either at the decisive juncture and checked in sixth.
Though the Southwest didn't pan out well for Caleb's Posse, trainer Donnie Von Hemel's other promising colt, Alternation, impressed in an allowance on the same Presidents' Day program. The Pin Oak Stable homebred swept to a convincing 3 1/4-length score over Dreaminofthewin at this same 1 1/16-mile trip, and in the process, fueled speculation about how he might have done in the Southwest. The patient strategy could pay off in the end for Alternation, who brings a three-race winning streak into his stakes debut.
Trainer Tony Dutrow has taken a similarly cautious approach with J W Blue. A last-to-first allowance winner at this track and distance on January 29, he opted to skip the Southwest. J W Blue enters the Rebel off a 49-day freshening, but must overcome being marooned widest of all in post 13.
At the other end of the spectrum comes GLINT (Sharp Humor), wheeling back on just 14 days' rest following his third in the March 14 Mountain Valley S. in his comeback. The Kellyn Gorder colt was two-for-two last year, capping his season with a smart victory in the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile S. on the synthetic Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs. Glint picks up the services of Gabriel Saez in this first try past 6 1/2 furlongs.
J W Blue and Bluegrass Jam will be coupled as a two-horse mutuel field because Oaklawn's infield toteboard only has space for 12 betting interests.
Blind Luck, Havre de Grace renew rivalry in Azeri
Havre de Grace (inside) and Blind Luck face off in the Azeri (Bill Denver/Equi-Photo)
Champion BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) was last seen in the winner's circle after taking the August 21 Alabama S. (G1), but has contracted a serious case of seconditis since that 10-furlong contest. The first to hold her off was HAVRE DE GRACE (Saint Liam), who got her neck in front on the wire of the Cotillion S. (G2) to score her initial stakes victory.
Those two knocked heads a total of four times in 2010, and on Saturday continue their rivalry as part of the seven-horse field entered in the $150,000 Azeri S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Blind Luck and Havre de Grace both ended their sophomore campaigns in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1), and were best of the rest behind winner Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song). Blind Luck managed to gain a measure of revenge for her Cotillion loss when finishing second, a length in front of Havre de Grace, in the championship event. She was one vote shy of being the unanimous choice for champion three-year-old filly, but hopes were high that last year's Kentucky Oaks (G1) queen would carry her form forward into her four-year-old season.
Blind Luck began the year in the El Encino S. (G2) over Santa Anita's newly installed dirt surface, and fell short to Always a Princess. Those two met again in the La Canada S. (G2) last out, and Always a Princess once again asserted her authority to be 3 1/4 lengths clear of Blind Luck on the wire. A bad step in the Santa Margarita Invitational (G1) on March 12 put an end to the racing career of Always a Princess, leaving the way clear for Blind Luck to take back the distaff division. The 1 1/16-mile Azeri is merely a steppingstone to the April 15 Apple Blossom H. (G1), but offers the perfect opportunity for the chestnut lass to regain her confidence and return to the winner's circle under new jockey Garrett Gomez.
Havre de Grace will do everything in her power to stop that from happening with Ramon Dominguez taking over riding duties from Jeremy Rose. The bay filly is returning off a 134-day break, having not competed since the Breeders' Cup, but will be saddled by new trainer Larry Jones. While he has yet to collect a trophy in the race, the conditioner is no stranger to getting his picture taken in the Oaklawn Park winner's circle.
Havre de Grace has been working up a storm in advance of her return, posting three bullet moves since mid-February, and recorded century-topping BRIS Speed ratings in her past four races. The four-year-old just missed in her first two tries against Blind Luck, running second by a nose and a neck, respectively, in the Delaware Oaks (G2) and Alabama, but will be returning to the 8 1/2-furlong distance on Saturday in which she captured the Cotillion.
Absinthe Minded will do her best to grab the Azeri spotlight (Oaklawn Park/Coady Photography)
Though much of the attention will be focused on Blind Luck and Havre de Grace, ABSINTHE MINDED (Quiet American) could steal the show for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The bay lass actually ran fifth behind those two in the Cotillion last year, but in two starts this season recorded front-running scores by a total of 8 1/4 lengths. The most recent of those came in the Bayakoa S. over track and distance, where she earned a 104 Speed figure for her victory, and Absinthe Minded could be tough to catch if she gets loose on the lead under Calvin Borel.
Also entered in the Azeri are TIDAL POOL (Yankee Gentleman) and SPACY TRACY (Awesome Again). Another Lukas trainee, Tidal Pool placed in last year's Kentucky Oaks and Fantasy S. (G2). The bay miss faded to fourth after taking the lead in the Pippin S. in her four-year-old debut on January 22, but returned against optional claiming rivals last out to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths. Terry Thompson, second in the current rider standings, was aboard for both of those starts and stays in the saddle on Saturday.
Like Havre de Grace, Spacy Tracy is making her six-year-old bow in this spot after being off for 113 days. She dropped just two races from seven starts last year, including the Top Flight H. (G2) and Justakiss S. to conclude her campaign. The Tony Dutrow runner's first start against stakes rivals came in the Justakiss, and she is seeking a third consecutive black-type victory here. Undefeated from two tries at the distance, Spacy Tracy has recorded back-to-back bullet moves in advance of the Azeri and keeps Rose in the irons.
Completing the field are KIMBER LILY (Sunday Break [Jpn]), winner of her last three, and Grade 1-placed multiple stakes victress SHOTGUN GULCH (Thunder Gulch).
the Derby, but I won't dismiss his chances on the front end in the Rebel.
SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) also invades from Southern California. The Jeff Bonde pupil returned from a 6 1/2-month layoff with an encouraging second to The Factor in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2), offering a visually impressive late rally, and he'll stretch out for the first time on Saturday. He's an obvious candidate to handle the added ground with his breeding and his BRIS numbers are strong, but I think Sway Away will be overbet off perhaps a false finish last time.
Sway Away was still last turning for home in the San Vicente and the front runners were coming back to him in the stretch after an opening half-mile in :43 2/5. I've seen a lot of horses offer a similar move, rallying dramatically for a minor award while not seriously threatening the winner, and they seldom improve upon the effort with a victory in their next start. Sway Away can't afford to leave himself too much to do in the Rebel stretch, but he's eligible to outperform my expectations.
J P'S GUSTO (Successful Appeal) was in tight during the short stretch run of the Southwest (G3) but managed to finish up well for second once clear. The Grade 1 winner could find the 1 1/16-mile distance within his scope and must be viewed as a dangerous stalk-and-pounce candidate with Ramon Dominguez, but he's zero-for-four in two-turn races.
ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who has been favorably compared to Derby winner Street Sense by jockey Calvin Borel, rallied into a threatening position at the top of the Southwest stretch but lacked the needed rally, settling for third. He was fanned six wide, but it marked the second straight start where he came up a little short in the final furlong. On the flip side, the Tim Ritchey trainee gained valuable stakes seasoning that afternoon and should receive a more favorable pace set-up in the Rebel. Elite Alex could be along in time.
Southwest winner ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) will look to secure favorable early positioning from his rail post. He broke his maiden three starts back in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds and exited a disappointing fourth-place effort in the Smarty Jones with a foot problem that quickly healed. The Jinks Fires charge was overlooked at 14-1 last time and could offer decent value once again in the Rebel. I like what I've seen from the improving colt and will use him in any multi-race wagers.
ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) is my top pick. Following a seven-length maiden win at Remington Park in December, trainer Donnie Von Hemel resisted the urge to throw his colt straight into stakes waters, electing to run him in a pair of allowance events at Oaklawn. The late runner responded with two excellent wins, defeating Elite Alex the first time and Smarty Jones runner-up Dreaminofthewin (Successful Appeal) in the latter, and he's posted two recent bullet works in preparation for his stakes debut. Alternation is well drawn in post 2 and should be in full flight after the leaders on the far turn. I think he can carry his momentum forward in the stretch for a minor upset.
Enjoy the racing.
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“We’ve tried to draw her pictures of Blind Luck,” said trainer Larry Jones, who will saddle Havre de Grace for the first time in the Azeri. “We’ve told her, ‘When you see this horse, don’t be waiting for her. Go on. Get the hell out of there.’ ”