Rebel Stakes play from DiscreetPicks.com
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Oaklawn - Race 10
#6 The Factor (2/1 ml)
Short morning-line here, but i think there's a pretty decent chance The Factor won't go favored in this race, as many have long been questioning his ability to stretch out, and will almost certainly be trying to beat him here. Myself, i was open to that idea, but in looking at the race on paper, i really can't get past this colt. We all know he's fast and talented, we've known that for a while, and it doesn't look to me as if he'll receive much pressure on the front end today. It should also be noted that, even though The Factor is stretching out here, the two-turn fractions he'll be setting (particularly if he is indeed alone on the lead) will be much softer than what he's accustomed to. With those factors in mind (pardon the pun), it's highly conceivable that he'll have plenty of gas left in the tank for the stretch drive. Also, be aware that Baffert had a lot of success shipping 3yo colts into Oaklawn last year, winning the Southwest with Conveyance (another speedy frontrunner, btw), and of course winning the Rebel with Lookin at Lucky.* Also, Baffert had previously indicated that he was pointing The Factor to the Sunland Park Derby, which is run over a speed-favoring surface, would undoubtedly have had a softer field, and carried a purse of $800,000. The fact he's been re-routed to the Rebel probably indicates a recent boost in Baffert's confidence level regarding The Factor's chances of stretching out successfully. Otherwise, why not stick to softer competition with a much larger purse? And lastly, don't forget The Factor was very much flattered last weekend (as was Sway Away) when Premier Pegasus destroyed the San Felipe field by open lengths. Lots to like here, and should be very playable.
HRT record:
77 for 291 (26.5%)
$651.00 mutuels ($8.45 avg)
#6 The Factor (2/1 ml)
Short morning-line here, but i think there's a pretty decent chance The Factor won't go favored in this race, as many have long been questioning his ability to stretch out, and will almost certainly be trying to beat him here. Myself, i was open to that idea, but in looking at the race on paper, i really can't get past this colt. We all know he's fast and talented, we've known that for a while, and it doesn't look to me as if he'll receive much pressure on the front end today. It should also be noted that, even though The Factor is stretching out here, the two-turn fractions he'll be setting (particularly if he is indeed alone on the lead) will be much softer than what he's accustomed to. With those factors in mind (pardon the pun), it's highly conceivable that he'll have plenty of gas left in the tank for the stretch drive. Also, be aware that Baffert had a lot of success shipping 3yo colts into Oaklawn last year, winning the Southwest with Conveyance (another speedy frontrunner, btw), and of course winning the Rebel with Lookin at Lucky.* Also, Baffert had previously indicated that he was pointing The Factor to the Sunland Park Derby, which is run over a speed-favoring surface, would undoubtedly have had a softer field, and carried a purse of $800,000. The fact he's been re-routed to the Rebel probably indicates a recent boost in Baffert's confidence level regarding The Factor's chances of stretching out successfully. Otherwise, why not stick to softer competition with a much larger purse? And lastly, don't forget The Factor was very much flattered last weekend (as was Sway Away) when Premier Pegasus destroyed the San Felipe field by open lengths. Lots to like here, and should be very playable.
HRT record:
77 for 291 (26.5%)
$651.00 mutuels ($8.45 avg)
Comments
Ex Box 2,6 with 2,6,9,13
Tri 2,6 with 2,6,5 with 2,6,5,9,13
I like the 2 possibly boxing the 2-6-9
good luck
PS oh hi all! my first post here
Agree, 6 seconds and change at the end is pretty impresive and broke in a tangle at the start.
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