Two Plays For Sat- Keeneland

John Greenhaw

Race 1
mc $16k 3yo up 5 1/2 f
Wide open event that could jump start a big day! #7 Right To Rule, 3-1, is the most vulnerable short priced horse of the day. Throw out.

# 4 EASY ASHLEY, 5/2,
Wes Ward owned, will shoot out to the front, but will she hold on to a lead on the Poly?

#3 PROSPECTOR QUEEN, 6-1 and
#6 SEEKING REASON, 5-1
are both steady types that offer good value.

#5 GIVE ME SOME GREEN, 20-1
Wismer horse shocked all last fall on Keeneland surface. Could it happen again?

Suggested Play:

Exacta 3/4/6 over 5
Trifecta 3/4/6-5-3/4/6 and 3/4/6-3/4/6-5


RACE 9 COOLMORE-LEXINGTON STAKES

#2 SILVER MEDALLION, 8/5
is going to get pressure up front from #3, could fold late on a Poly surface which is unkind to frontrunners and coming back so soon from SA Derby.

#3 PRIME CUT, 7/2
Showed ability to run fast and still close well in last at FG. Poly is a question but Howard sent him over to work on Kee surface on April 12 and word is he liked it and looked very comfortable. Neil Howard likes his chances here today and believes he will sit just off the lead and close with plenty left.

#6 CASPER'S TOUCH, 3-1
Love's Keeneland! Neil Howard thinks he is a serious threat to come late and win it all!

#1 DERBY KITTEN, 4-1
Dead turf closer may like Kee Poly.

Suggested Play:

Trifecta 3/6- 3/6 - 1/2

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Horsin~Aro

Looking a big win bet here for Prime cut. Coming off the fastest 1m70y race of the meet at the fairgrounds. Seems to like the surface switch. Should get decent value here.

husker70

John Greenhaw wrote: »

Race 1
mc $16k 3yo up 5 1/2 f
Wide open event that could jump start a big day! #7 Right To Rule, 3-1, is the most vulnerable short priced horse of the day. Throw out.

# 4 EASY ASHLEY, 5/2,
Wes Ward owned, will shoot out to the front, but will she hold on to a lead on the Poly?

#3 PROSPECTOR QUEEN, 6-1 and
#6 SEEKING REASON, 5-1
are both steady types that offer good value.

#5 GIVE ME SOME GREEN, 20-1
Wismer horse shocked all last fall on Keeneland surface. Could it happen again?

Suggested Play:

Exacta 3/4/6 over 5
Trifecta 3/4/6-5-3/4/6 and 3/4/6-3/4/6-5


RACE 9 COOLMORE-LEXINGTON STAKES

#2 SILVER MEDALLION, 8/5
is going to get pressure up front from #3, could fold late on a Poly surface which is unkind to frontrunners and coming back so soon from SA Derby.

#3 PRIME CUT, 7/2
Showed ability to run fast and still close well in last at FG. Poly is a question but Howard sent him over to work on Kee surface on April 12 and word is he liked it and looked very comfortable. Neil Howard likes his chances here today and believes he will sit just off the lead and close with plenty left.

#6 CASPER'S TOUCH, 3-1
Love's Keeneland! Neil Howard thinks he is a serious threat to come late and win it all!

#1 DERBY KITTEN, 4-1
Dead turf closer may like Kee Poly.

Suggested Play:

Trifecta 3/6- 3/6 - 1/2

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

john---in your race 1----using 1,3,4

race 9----coolmore....like silver medallion of asmussen's....if track wet could be slick for front runner..like you said also...coming back pretty fast...steve last nite was concerned about the rain...
like yor #6 otherwise.......using the 2,6,4,3...alot of boxing....GOOD LUCK...SEE YA AT THE WINDOWS...

John Greenhaw

The word I got was that Silver Medallion is a very good horse, but maybe not as good as the Owner's think, and certainly not as good as 8/5. That is probably why Assman is concerned. This race is do or die for any thoughts of a Derby spot and Assman is hooked tough in here. I noticed you also included the Jeff Bonde # 4 with Calvin. I looked hard at this one as he closed very well up in Northern California, but I just felt that this one is jumping way up in class when compared to the proven closers in here. I opted to include the #1 just because he has closed very well on turf and Leparoux has a way of getting the most out of his mounts, but I really like Neil Howard's PRIME CUT and CASPER'S TOUCH to battle it out for top honors. Horsin'around had a good point on Prime Cut's last at FG and Howard thinks he is well spotted.

That 1st race pick is just a hunch play on the Glenn Wismer longshot, This guy Wismer has a way of bringing his horses into Keeneland and somehow they will hit the board and create a toteboard explosion. I just hope today is one of those days!

BTW, I like your Lone Star picks, especially the #3 in race 6. I will play a rather sizeable win wager on that one, but I expect 4/5 at best.

GOOD LUCK!

DiscreetCat

I was on Prime Cut here; gave him out on my site. I really thought he had it won coming off the turn. Nice run from him, but Derby Kitten looked really strong late. New shooter in the mix, it looks like.

He flamed out badly in his only previous dirt try, however...

John Greenhaw

The more I watch these races the more I realize I don't know anything!

I expected Casper's Touch to sit back and make a big move late. I'll be damned if he didn't go to the front. Go figure? On the bright side, I was right about Silver Medallion being a little flat after his recent efforts. Prime Cut ran a good race in real time but was compromised by his own speed, but there was no denying Derby Kitten, who has a bright future on the grass. Don't think we will see him in Ky Derby, I'm not sure he even has enough earnings?

So much for Cal Nation's off-track figures. What did he run, DFL! Go figure.

I think I will calculate my losses today and put that amount on #1 in the 9th @ Hollywood, Drinkin At Busters.

Better Luck next time!

Mikenyce

What gets me is heading into the Saratoga meet Maker had several of these Kitten horses all first time starters. I played everyone of them on the grass. Not sure but I dont think any of them even ran well let alone won. Now it seems alot of these horses are maturing and beginning to run well and I gave up on all of them.

DiscreetCat

I think a lot of the Kitten's Joy horses (if not most) were debuting around two turns. That might've had a lot to do with their lack of success. It's really tough for a firster to win around two turns first time out, so just as a rule of thumb you can pretty much stay away from them. The exceptions are located in the trainer stats, those being the few guys that are successful (to whatever degree) debuting horses in routes. Just off the top of my head, those guys are Pletcher, Clement, Attfield, and i believe Chad Brown (Silver Medallion's original trainer).