Hollywood play from DiscreetPicks

DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
edited April 2011 in Horse Racing Forum
Hollywood - Race 4

#5 Bet On Victor (5/2 ml)

Speedy Cerin colt battled on some very fast early fractions while being very ambitiously placed when coming off a 10-month layoff, and understandably got tired late. Figures to have gotten quite a bit out of that race conditioning-wise, and note the similar pattern to what he did last year, coming off a long layoff @ Santa Anita and showing sharp early speed before returning to post a solid win @ Hollywood in his second start of the year (the same situation as tonight). Also note the return to Bejarano, who was aboard for both wins last year. Even better, he should get loose on the lead here, with none of his opponents figuring to have much interest in challenging the early pace. That should enable Bet On Victor to coast along on some pretty modest fractions, saving plenty of gas for the stretch run. He also figures to be a pretty good price here, showing what's easily the worst last-race Beyer in the field, and his late fade last time doesn't figure to get anyone too excited, especially on the stretchout to 7 furlongs. Square price on the most likely winner of the race.

HRT record:

79 for 295 (27%)

$663.60 mutuels ($8.40 avg)

Comments

  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited April 2011
    I wasn't really amused with the ride here. Thoughts? Was he gonna look smart if he won?
  • DiscreetCatDiscreetCat Moderator
    edited April 2011
    The pace was definitely not too fast, and i'm pretty shocked that Bejarano conceded the early lead to Informed thru such soft fractions. Not sure what he was doing there, but Bejarano did sit right off the pace in his win aboard Bet On Victor at Hollywood last year, so that might've had something to do with it. In any case, he turned for home with an advantage and appeared to be traveling very comfortably, and i really thought he was on his way to victory at that point. He just seemed to hang a bit in the stretch and let the others come back to him. No real excuse that i could see. He was only beaten about a length at the wire, but it was a disappointing effort all things considered, i thought.
  • dirtyshirtdirtyshirt Senior Member
    edited April 2011
    Maybe I'm wrong, but isn't this the race where he tried midway on the backstretch to rush up and clear, but then sat 3 wide around the far turn and flattened out late? If you're gonna commit, commit. Maybe I'm just on a rant because of Dominus.
Sign In or Register to comment.