Belmont play from DiscreetPicks.com
DiscreetCat
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Belmont - Race 9
#3 Naples Bay (5/1 ml)
Big fan of this filly, as you know. We've been on her in both career starts thus far, as this half-sister to Med D'Oro has been working with older stakes horses heading into her Gulfstream debut. She ran big there, as expected, despite encountering a good bit of traffic that forced her to sit and wait behind horses until she finally got an opening. She then moved up in class and scored anothe sharp win, once again without the best of trips. Note that she broke from the 10-hole and had to race very wide, and she was also far back early after breaking slow. Just swooped to the lead still wide approaching the turn for home, then maintained her advantage through the lane over Diva Ash, who later returned to win a stakes race on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Just a fantastic, upwardly-mobile filly here, and the price looks sweet here. Good as she is, she'll be overlooked due to the presence of Winter Memories, who is listed @ 3/5 on the morning line. That one is a bona-fide star (at least she was last year), but she was away very a long time after the Breeders Cup, which makes you wonder, and although she won her comeback race last month, she didn't show the same kind of overpowering late kick that she did last fall. That may simply be because she was away a long time, as mentioned, and wasn't cranked up for the race, but it may also be that she's lost a step or two due to whatever kind of physical issue kept her on the sidelines that long. In any case, i feel that Naples Bay is capable of winning this race completely on her own merit, and this may be our last chance to get an overlaid price in this filly for quite a while. Good value on a very good horse.
HRT record:
81 for 298 (27%)
$677.40 mutuels ($8.36 avg)
#3 Naples Bay (5/1 ml)
Big fan of this filly, as you know. We've been on her in both career starts thus far, as this half-sister to Med D'Oro has been working with older stakes horses heading into her Gulfstream debut. She ran big there, as expected, despite encountering a good bit of traffic that forced her to sit and wait behind horses until she finally got an opening. She then moved up in class and scored anothe sharp win, once again without the best of trips. Note that she broke from the 10-hole and had to race very wide, and she was also far back early after breaking slow. Just swooped to the lead still wide approaching the turn for home, then maintained her advantage through the lane over Diva Ash, who later returned to win a stakes race on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Just a fantastic, upwardly-mobile filly here, and the price looks sweet here. Good as she is, she'll be overlooked due to the presence of Winter Memories, who is listed @ 3/5 on the morning line. That one is a bona-fide star (at least she was last year), but she was away very a long time after the Breeders Cup, which makes you wonder, and although she won her comeback race last month, she didn't show the same kind of overpowering late kick that she did last fall. That may simply be because she was away a long time, as mentioned, and wasn't cranked up for the race, but it may also be that she's lost a step or two due to whatever kind of physical issue kept her on the sidelines that long. In any case, i feel that Naples Bay is capable of winning this race completely on her own merit, and this may be our last chance to get an overlaid price in this filly for quite a while. Good value on a very good horse.
HRT record:
81 for 298 (27%)
$677.40 mutuels ($8.36 avg)
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