BC Classic futures
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What I saw was, the current favorite for the Classic at Wynn is Twirling Candy at 10-1, followed closely behind by Crown Of Thorns at 12-1. Both of these horses are talented, but Twirling Candy has yet to win a race over older horses, while Crown Of Thorns has never been thought of as a 1 ¼ mile horse. If I were to venture a guess, I would say these two Southern California-based horses are the first two favorites in the Classic future book betting at least partly because of Vegass close proximity to SoCal. Nevertheless, these odds do hold some degree of validity because they are largely based on actual money wagered so far.
Next in line at 14-1 is Dialed In, followed by First Dude at 18-1, and Gio Ponti at 20-1. There is a growing suspicion that Dialed In might be at his best as a one turn closer, while First Dude is only in the initial stages of shedding his label as a habitual disappointment by altering his running style to closing. As for Gio Ponti, he is world-class on turf and synthetic, but he is a virtual unknown on dirt, an important consideration since this years Breeders Cup is back at Churchill Downs.
Animal Kingdom, who finished clearly in front of Dialed In when he won the Kentucky Derby and finished second in the Preakness, is currently 25-1. So, too, is Nehro, the Derby runner up who is still eligible to an entry level allowance race.
There are, of course, many other horses with posted prices for the Classic, but Ill mention just two more. Shackleford, who also finished in front of Dialed In when he finished fourth in the Derby and won the Preakness, is 30-1. Uncle Mo, last years champion 2-year-old male and whose status is uncertain as he recovers from a stomach ailment, is also 30-1.
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Playing this race in advance of Sept/Oct is assinine and only set up to benefit the books!
Not true. I nearly made a killing on Bernardini (25/1) some years back. You just need to understand the risks involved, and factor that into the price you're willing to accept. Like you said, the race isn't exactly next week.
Nice call Vegas. What a huge performance, what if this horse ever gets a good trip?
The derby future last September at Wynns opened with 110 horses (according to Dave Tuley's viewfromvegas.com,only 2 made it to the starting gate....what Wynn took in, call it a clean sweep. Trying to pick the Derby winner in September is out of the question.
The other problem these days (in addition to the prices being uber-lowballed pretty much across the board) is that they're opening the non-Classic future books at much later dates than they used to. So, by the time you're actually able to get down on a horse you might like (one that might've still been under-the-radar a month or two earlier), all the value is gone by the time they finally post a price. Hell, it might be September before they even post Juvenile futures. The whole thing has just gotten ridiculous, at least from the players' standpoint. It's a real shame, too. They used to really be worth pursuing some years back. It started to change right about the same time John Avello moved his tack over to the Wynn. Whether that was a coincidence or not, who knows.