Horse Racing - Sunday
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Longchamp - Race 6 (Arc de Triomphe)
#12 Authorized
I haven't seen a morning line, but Alan Shuback in the Racing Form lists him @ 7/5. That's probably about right. Regarding Shuback, it should help a lot that he picks Soldier of Fortune to win the race in his DRF article, as we'll be betting into an American pool, and most of the bettors here don't follow European racing (meaning they'd be more likely to follow Shuback's selection). Anyway, with regard to Authorized, he's cleary the best 3yo colt in Europe (perhaps the world), and likely the best since Dalakhani, who won this race maybe 4 years ago. He's been EXTREMELY highly-regarded all along, in fact Frankie Dettori got special permission from Godolphin to ride this horse in the English Derby, so that he could get his first-ever win in that race. Authorized did not disappoint, winning off by open lengths in a hugely impressive performance. There was even a prop in Europe earlier this year as to whether Authorized would complete the year undefeated - that's how good he is. Since then, his only loss was in bizarre fashion, as he beat his own "group" in the Coral-Eclipse (his first start vs. older horses), but was beaten to the wire by Notnowcato. What i mean is that Authorized beat the main group of animals, which consisted of the entire field except for Notnowcato. That one was steered WAY outside to the other rail, where his jockey believed the ground was faster. He said afterwards that he "can't believe no one followed me". So Notnowcato was racing all alone, in his own zip code, while Authorized beat the main body of horses (which included George Washington). Subsequent to that, Authorized rebounded from his "loss" with a big performance in the Juddmonte International, beating Dylan Thomas and also getting his revenge on Notnowcato. Basically the horse has done nothing wrong all year, and he's been training very well into this race, which of course has been his main goal all year. His trainer says that he's "spot-on" for the Arc, and that's god enough for me. The ground is supposed to be on the soft side, which is why Shuback likes Soldier of Fortune (whom Authorized blasted in the English Derby). Soldier of Fortune destroyed the Irish Derby field by 9 lengths over heavy ground, and clearly should relish the squishy going. That being said, Authorized has won on heavy ground himself, and i remember reading early this year that he "runs on anything". So while Soldier of Fortune may move up, it's not like Authorized moves down. Incidentally, i should probably mention that his loss in the Coral-Eclipse came @ 1 1/4 miles, and everything i've read about the horse indicates that he's better-suited to the Arc distance of 1 1/2 miles (the same distance of his English Derby win). The price won't be big here, but this horse should be very tough to beat.
HRT record:
36 for 122 (30%)
$320.10 mutuels ($8.89 avg)
#12 Authorized
I haven't seen a morning line, but Alan Shuback in the Racing Form lists him @ 7/5. That's probably about right. Regarding Shuback, it should help a lot that he picks Soldier of Fortune to win the race in his DRF article, as we'll be betting into an American pool, and most of the bettors here don't follow European racing (meaning they'd be more likely to follow Shuback's selection). Anyway, with regard to Authorized, he's cleary the best 3yo colt in Europe (perhaps the world), and likely the best since Dalakhani, who won this race maybe 4 years ago. He's been EXTREMELY highly-regarded all along, in fact Frankie Dettori got special permission from Godolphin to ride this horse in the English Derby, so that he could get his first-ever win in that race. Authorized did not disappoint, winning off by open lengths in a hugely impressive performance. There was even a prop in Europe earlier this year as to whether Authorized would complete the year undefeated - that's how good he is. Since then, his only loss was in bizarre fashion, as he beat his own "group" in the Coral-Eclipse (his first start vs. older horses), but was beaten to the wire by Notnowcato. What i mean is that Authorized beat the main group of animals, which consisted of the entire field except for Notnowcato. That one was steered WAY outside to the other rail, where his jockey believed the ground was faster. He said afterwards that he "can't believe no one followed me". So Notnowcato was racing all alone, in his own zip code, while Authorized beat the main body of horses (which included George Washington). Subsequent to that, Authorized rebounded from his "loss" with a big performance in the Juddmonte International, beating Dylan Thomas and also getting his revenge on Notnowcato. Basically the horse has done nothing wrong all year, and he's been training very well into this race, which of course has been his main goal all year. His trainer says that he's "spot-on" for the Arc, and that's god enough for me. The ground is supposed to be on the soft side, which is why Shuback likes Soldier of Fortune (whom Authorized blasted in the English Derby). Soldier of Fortune destroyed the Irish Derby field by 9 lengths over heavy ground, and clearly should relish the squishy going. That being said, Authorized has won on heavy ground himself, and i remember reading early this year that he "runs on anything". So while Soldier of Fortune may move up, it's not like Authorized moves down. Incidentally, i should probably mention that his loss in the Coral-Eclipse came @ 1 1/4 miles, and everything i've read about the horse indicates that he's better-suited to the Arc distance of 1 1/2 miles (the same distance of his English Derby win). The price won't be big here, but this horse should be very tough to beat.
HRT record:
36 for 122 (30%)
$320.10 mutuels ($8.89 avg)
Comments
2 DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) FALLON K $11.80 $5.60 $4.80
1 YOUMZAIN (IRE) HUGHES R $35.00 $15.40
11 SAGARA GILLET T $11.40
5 GETAWAY (GER) PESLIER O
$2 Exacta (2-1) Paid $242.40
$0.50 Trifecta (2-1-11) Paid $678.10
$0.10 Superfecta (2-1-11-5) Paid $1,167.11
Hawthorne 4 - Melissa's Dream
Btw, here's the story on Authorized. Apparently, nobody knows what the hell happened. All i know is i lost $200.
AUTHORIZED NEVER FIRED - DETTORI: Sporting Life - Racing News | Live Racing Results, Racing Tips, Racecards And Form, Arc, Longchamp, Breeders' Cup, Champion Stakes, Dewhurst.