Churchill Race 8 Saturday: 4:29 EDT

John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
edited June 2011 in Horse Racing Forum
MSW $49k f & m 3yo & up 1 mile

My friend in Kentucky gave me this horse yesterday and he is going to play her pretty big to Win/Place.

#1 MISSED THE POINT, 8-1
Astute breeder/owner Watts Humphrey rushed this well bred 3yo into action too soon as a 2yo going long---something you seldom see in a 2yo. Minor problems but time off to heal. Top local trainer Rusty Arnold been working her at Keeneland under a stranglehold. Word is she is ready for a big effort. Robbie Albarado takes this mount over several others. Should be forwardly placed along the rail and save ground then come out on the turn and make herself known!

#2 LIGHTSHAFT, 4-1
older 4yo fillie finally catches a fast surface. She has a real chance for Neil Howard, but note Manny Cruz is up as Robbie A goes elsewhere.

#4 TIME COUNTS, 3-1
Assman 1st teamer from Calif. will try to take them w2w.

#6 EMPRESS OF GOLD, 4-1
Mott trained Empire Maker fillie is a major threat. She cuts back a little and comes back on a maiden breaking schedule.

I recommend hedging you bet a little in this one.

w/p #1
exacta 1---2/4/6 and reverse for same

Key #1 in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the trifecta with #'s 2--4--6

GOOD LUCK TODAY!

Comments

  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    I'm playing the 9 in this event as I think the Frogman is sitting on a live colt today. Her first race at Keeneland was a workout race IMO. She is sitting on a big effort today for Charles L and he just might have a big day at CH today with his runners.


    9 - GOTTAHAVEADREAM - WPS - 8/1 ML
  • jenroypajenroypa Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    What do you giuys think about Wilkes using Borel again on Capt. CandymanCan in the 10th? The last time wasnt one of his better rides..
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    jenroypa wrote: »
    What do you giuys think about Wilkes using Borel again on Capt. CandymanCan in the 10th? The last time wasnt one of his better rides..


    I'm all over Nobles Promise in that race BIG WAGER on my end. Calvin moved early on Derby Day and now they are back a furlong shorter.


    fb
  • husker70husker70 Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    John---playing Assmans Horse In Race 3....#6....likes It's Chances....across...
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    FB,
    I know that leaving Leparoux out of a race in Kentucky is akin to leaving Ramon out in NY. But that Lopressi horse will really have to step it up a couple of notches from her last. May have been just a workout, but it will certainly cause the odds to be the best on any mount Leparoux has today. Can't play em all, guess you and I are at odds on this one. Probably means some other nag we didn't even consider will come late at a big price.

    Jenroypa,
    As far as Capt'n Candy man can and Calvin, I agree that he sent him too soon in last, but I'm glad as hell he did as I crushed em with Aikenite! If he tries to hold him back some today and save something for late he probably won't catch Noble's Promise, as FB pointed out. I think Wilkes will tell Calvin to use his best judgement and go when he thinks the time is right. The Captain will no doubt be a little fitter today and will certainly be part of the mix

    Wilkes has been using King's buddy, Freddie Lenclud alot and I'm wondering why not today? I guess because Calvin had the mount last and knows the horse a little better, as when to send him..
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    Husker,

    Assman #6 race 3 is taking a big drop, should help. I think I'll fire a tri box 1--4--6

    going back to look at FB's CD picks thread.
  • fbwinnersfbwinners Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    Let me break this race down a little further for all. I just got off the phone and have collared all the information on this race and I can tell you one thing this is a boxcar race if you have ever seen one. Mr. John and I are on different horses and my contacts don't like my horse at all so what do I do here. Hell I still don't know at this writing of the thread. Well here is the info I have gathered as of now.


    12 - Paper Plane - They are saying Eddie has this one ready to take them a long way from this open post position and he has been training like a good thing of late.


    10 - Ensign's Soul - I know someone very close to Stewart and her last race was much better than it looks on paper. They are stating if she can get good position this time and make her run down the lane she will take the purse money with Borail in the saddle.


    4 - Time Counts - Another capper I respect to the core, has stated this one is ready to take them gate to wire off his first effort 5 weeks ago. It is suprising to me that the Assman has gone to Alan Garcia in this one. Alan is in here to ride Noble's Promise. I just cannot take these low odds in this type of race that is telling me BOXCAR payoff.


    1 - Missed The Point - Mr. John has spoken on this filly, so I will PAY ATTENTION to his info and find a way to use her.


    9 - Gottahaveadream - Everyone is thinking I'm nuts to like this one in this event and I might be, but what I saw at Keeneland was a workout race and for the Frogman to climb aboard what does he know that we don't for him to take the mount.


    Well for one I will be boxing the 5 above in the exacta,tri, and super as this could be the biggest mutal race of the day and it looks like that to me. Enough already I'm breaking this MSW race down like it's the KY Derby.


    gl, fb
  • tmffmtmffm Banned
    edited June 2011
    CD R8: between the 1,4,5,6.

    Likeliest winners are the 6 and 4. will take them on top in tri's with the others:

    4 / 1,5,6
    6/1,4,5
  • John GreenhawJohn Greenhaw Senior Member
    edited June 2011
    Like I said, "Some nag we never even considered ".

    Huge boxcar payoffs in both 7th & 8th. I'm out early in pick 4 & 5.
Sign In or Register to comment.

© Horse Racing Talk 2024