Belmont Full Card
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June 11, 2011
Belmont Stakes Day
Dont Leave The Window Selections
#7 Rattlesnake Bridge W/P - (RACE 4)
Kiaran McLaughlin has asked a lot from this colt in a short time span. He has thrown him in against the wolves on two different occasions. Today this colt gets a big class relief in this field. McLaughlin doesnt have anyone in the Test of Championship but has two live runners on todays card and this one is sitting on go. Rattlesnake has worked real well for this event and his last was spot on. There is ample pace in this race for Rattlesnake to stalk and pounce on them down the lane over big sandy on his way to the winners circle. I will be shocked if this colt doesnt run a career best today at Belmont. His form cycle, works, and McLaughin freshening of him say all systems a go.
#3 Trappe Shot W/P (RACE 7)
I have always been real high on this colt and he didnt let me down last year but one time against Lookin At Lucky in the Haskell in which he race 2nd that day against a better horse on that day. What I was glad to hear from McLaughlin was this colt just was given time off and had no type of procedures done to him while he was on the shelf. They just stopped with him because he is a special horse that will improve by leaps and bounds this coming year. In his first start back after 8 months on the shelf he stumble at the break and still won in hand that day without being asked really to run hard down the lane, its what I call a measured win. Look for another peak performance today as this is the race they have been pointing him for since the layoff. McLauglin owns the undercard on Belmont day.
RACE 1 Turf Only
This is the type of weed race that will bankroll your day if you are able to catch the winner along with the exotics. There are at least five win candidates in this race. Im going with a shipper that is bred top and bottom for the weeds and broke his maiden going a route of ground and then came back to almost win last out after he dwelt at the start of the race. For those that doesnt know what dwelt means, means the horse didnt break from the gate with the rest of the field, sometime they can be declared a non starter.
# 6 Eternal Ruler (Ire) WPS
6 over 1-3-4-5-8-9-10 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 2
We have another wide open race in the MSW affair. There are three first time starters and several other in here that are win contenders. Im going with another price horse in this event with a colt that is either going to win or stop like a rock. It looks to me as his trainer has set this race up for him. He putting the hood back on this one and also has a great gate jock on his back to this event. If Cohen gets a clean break from this post I think the rest of the field will only see this on from the backside. The cut back to 6.5f from a route is just what the doctor ordered.
#2 Not Now Ashley WPS
2 over 1-3-4-5-7 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 3
This is the least exciting race on the card and should have been carded as the first race. I wont spend much time on this race and Im going to go with a layoff horse in this claiming event and I think the Assman will get his first win of the meet with this gelding. This one is coming off a 8 month layoff and will be fresh and ready for the other nags in this race.
#9 Philotimo WPS
9 over 2-4-6-10-13
RACE 4
Please see the above Dont Leave The Window box.
7 over 1-3-5-9-10-11 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 5 Turf Only
This is another wide open weed race. You can make a case for 4-5 of these runners in here. One thing I have noticed that many of these runners dont care for any give in the ground and if the rain comes down this is just one big boxcar bomb race that anyone of them can win. The gelding Im going to back is from the RED HOT Weaver barn and also coming into his 3rd race off a layoff. Eddie Castro take the mount as Maragh is on top of the speedster that is going to try and wire this field after a workout sprint race in his first back.
#1 Shekomeko Son WPS
1 over 2-4-5-7-8-9-10-11 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
This is an exacta and tri worth shooting at in this weed event.
Super Key
1 over 2-4-7-8-11 over 2-4-5-7-8-9-10-11 - .10 super = #21.00
RACE 6
This is an open and closed race to me. I have been reading other handicappers insight on this
race and have seen many of them make strong opinions on the Pletcher duo, Hess Jr., and McLauglin. The only other filly in this race to me that has a shot is Snow Fall from the Stidham barn. But Turbulent Descent is just a special one turn filly and Puype stated that after the SA Oaks and said that was going to be her last two turn race for a while. She has been pointed to this race and her last work at HW was chilling I have heard from my clocker. I really think with the Plethcer Duo and Bobby Flays Her Smile in here we might get even money.
#2 Turbulent Descent WP
2 over 1-6 over all
RACE 7
Please see the Dont Leave The Window box above.
3 over 1-2-4-5-7
RACE 8
This is a fine field of 3 yo except the Lukas horse and the excited placement of the owner of Bold Warrior. Jerkens didnt want to run here but the owner insisted. I see a big rebound performance from Travelin Man and his last 3/72 is all I need to see as its a sign of all systems a go.
#1 Travelin Man WP
1 over 2-5-6-7 over all
RACE 9 Turf Only
This looks to be a very tough race on paper but I see Billy Mott winning this race again this year as he did with Proviso last year. He has pointed this filly for this race and her last at CH was just plain awesome. There quit a few in here that can make a statement for place and show but I only see this filly winning this race, the only thing that can beat her in here is a bad trip or traffic.
2 Aviate - WP
2 over 1-3-5-6-8 over all Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 10 Turf Only
We have the champ in here in Gio Ponti , who is coming a 5th place finish in the Dubai Wold
Cup. He is the class of this field and will take all the money at the widows. Then you have the OBrien colt coming off 8 days rest and also crossing the pound to the US for the first time and will be bet at the windows also. Really after these two you can make a case for many of them and Im going to a horse that has let me down many times in this big races. I see him carving out a nice trip from his outside post and if the pace is not so fast he will have enough left in the tank to make his last run to the wire and try and hold off the big boys coming from behind.
#9 Straight Story WPS
9 over 2-3-4-5-6-7 Revese in all 3 holes for the tri.
RACE 11
THE BELMONT
#1 Master of Hounds - He is the wiseguy horse and all the Nehro fan should be smiling in a big manner. He is bred to run the distance and they have stated he had trouble in the Derby and still finished 5th despite the trip only beaten 5 ½ lengths. Frank Lyons on TVG is screaming over this colt saying he is all in and so forth. Yes he has a shot at finishing in the money but you will never see me wagering on a colt with only 1 career win in the Belmont Stakes in eight career starts.
#2 Stay Thirsty He is very intriguing to me as he has had the best works over Big Sandy since arriving back to his home base from Churchill downs. His grand dad and daddy were both real runners and the distance of this race should be right up his ally. He never got a good surface to work over at CH and I really think he just hated that track. If he displays his works today he should be a factor down the lane and I really think he will get a piece of this race at huge odds. This colt IMO has been not handled in the right manner as he has always played second fiddle to Uncle Mo and after the Gotham they should of stayed in NY instead of shipping down south and bringing Uncle Mo up north.
#3 Ruler On Ice This one will have his named call early and often today as he will be closer to the pace with the addition of blinkers and is fresh coming off a good 2nd in the Tesio at Old Hilltop. This colt is a must use in the 3rd and 4th holes in the Super if your bankroll allows you to go deep. He is very much a live long shot for the Super. He has posted back to back bullet works over at Monmouth and looks to be flanking Shackleford and Prime Cut from the outset of the race.
#4 Santiva - This colt is the sheet players horse for the Belmont. When he broke his maiden in the KY Jockey Club I thought that was a very slow race. He then came back and ran his career best at the FG in the Risen Star after a 3 month layoff. Then I still cannot figure out what Kenneally did after the Risen Star. They wait two months and then run him on the Poly at Keeneland and he has the worst trip a horse could have during a race. He had no chance at all that day with the Frog Man in the saddle. It wouldnt shock me if he get a check today on the bottom end.
#5 Brilliant Speed This one is right on par with Master of Hounds and Santiva as he was coming late in the derby after a so called troubled trip. He is one of the better bred colts in this race and some major handicappers have him on top in this race. Joel makes the trip in from the left coast but I cannot make a win bet on this colt that hasnt hit the board on real dirt, and he is no Animal Kingdom.
#6 Nehro As I stated above all his backers should be happy that Master of Hounds is taking the early money at the windows. This will ensure his price will be at least the ml or maybe higher. He is fresh as they come and his work over the fast track at CH on May 30th was absolute awesome I have been told. The Assman has this one sitting on his career effort today and he always has had his backers and they are thinking the extra distance is what this colts needs. I will use him in my exotics and verticals but he isnt my win contender and as I have stated I cannot make a wager on a one win colt in the Belmont!!!!
#7 Monzon What I remember about this colt the most is his first race at Colonial I saw it and book him as a play back that day. He broke dead last that day and was dead last most of the race and when they let him out he closed like a freight train. I book him as a play back next out and his whole team must of known that was a workout race as he came back on won by a dozen at even money. Can he run in the super at huge odds yes if he runs back to his Countfleet victory in which he beat JJs Lucky Train and Pants On Fire (LA Derby Winner) that day. That was his career best and he hasnt show much of late shipping from NY to Fl and back to NY.
#8 Prime Cut This one for Howard has been running in place as he hasnt regressed but on the flip side he hasnt improved either. He will be part of the pace in this race as his running lines show he is always in the first or second position in his last four races. He might hold on for a share but I cannot see him winning this race with his speed figures.
#9 Animal Kingdom - Is he the best horse in this field, my answer is YES hands down. He should of won the Preakness but it just wasnt meant for him to win it. Will he win the Belmont today I think so and I think we will get a better price on him today than we did in the Preakness. I know the sheet players think he is way over the top and they stated that after the Derby and he showed up big time in the Preakness and will show up big time today at Big Sandy. One of the glaring factors for me is the way Motion has handled him from the Preakness, bringing him to Belmont for a work over the surface and did he work a bullet 4f 47.3 breezing. This horse is ready to run and will be closer to the pace today as JR knows what he is sitting on and he will win the Belmont by open lengths and will be the first favorite to win this year on the Triple Crown Trial.
#10 Mucho Macho Man - Well what is this colt going to do today. He closed in the derby to almost catch Nehro and was eating up ground like a good thing. Then he loses his shoe for the second time in the Preakness. Then you have Barry Irwin of Team Valor stating he is the only horse that can beat Animal Kingodm. Then I keep hearing how much weight he has lost and then his owner comes out and states they have the best horse in the country and he just needs to show it and then he states he dont know if this is the race. Then you have Ramon D take the mount and Maragh took the mount with Coa was injured and know gets the boot for the NY local jock.
#11 Isnt He Perfect This one is over his head and I just cannot make a case for him in this field, his is just plain to slow and out classed with these colts.
#12 Shackleford What can you say bad about this colt!!! He keep out running his breeding and he reminds me of Hard Spun or Cat Thief. Just horses that have hearts so big and give there all time and time again in each race. There isnt real what you call speed in this race and Shack ought to have his way on the front end and will be able to relax and have enough gas in the tank down the lane but he wont be able to hold off Animal Kingdom this time and maybe others.
#9 Animal Kingdom WP
Exacta Key 1st and 2nd Holes
9 over 1-8,12
Trifecta Key 1st and 2nd holes
9 over 1-2-5-6-10-12 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12
.10 Super Key 1st , 2nd and 3rd holes = $72.00 for all three if bankroll allows
9 over 1-2-5-6-10-12 over 1-2-5-6-10-12 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12
Gl, fb
June 11, 2011
Belmont Stakes Day
Dont Leave The Window Selections
#7 Rattlesnake Bridge W/P - (RACE 4)
Kiaran McLaughlin has asked a lot from this colt in a short time span. He has thrown him in against the wolves on two different occasions. Today this colt gets a big class relief in this field. McLaughlin doesnt have anyone in the Test of Championship but has two live runners on todays card and this one is sitting on go. Rattlesnake has worked real well for this event and his last was spot on. There is ample pace in this race for Rattlesnake to stalk and pounce on them down the lane over big sandy on his way to the winners circle. I will be shocked if this colt doesnt run a career best today at Belmont. His form cycle, works, and McLaughin freshening of him say all systems a go.
#3 Trappe Shot W/P (RACE 7)
I have always been real high on this colt and he didnt let me down last year but one time against Lookin At Lucky in the Haskell in which he race 2nd that day against a better horse on that day. What I was glad to hear from McLaughlin was this colt just was given time off and had no type of procedures done to him while he was on the shelf. They just stopped with him because he is a special horse that will improve by leaps and bounds this coming year. In his first start back after 8 months on the shelf he stumble at the break and still won in hand that day without being asked really to run hard down the lane, its what I call a measured win. Look for another peak performance today as this is the race they have been pointing him for since the layoff. McLauglin owns the undercard on Belmont day.
RACE 1 Turf Only
This is the type of weed race that will bankroll your day if you are able to catch the winner along with the exotics. There are at least five win candidates in this race. Im going with a shipper that is bred top and bottom for the weeds and broke his maiden going a route of ground and then came back to almost win last out after he dwelt at the start of the race. For those that doesnt know what dwelt means, means the horse didnt break from the gate with the rest of the field, sometime they can be declared a non starter.
# 6 Eternal Ruler (Ire) WPS
6 over 1-3-4-5-8-9-10 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 2
We have another wide open race in the MSW affair. There are three first time starters and several other in here that are win contenders. Im going with another price horse in this event with a colt that is either going to win or stop like a rock. It looks to me as his trainer has set this race up for him. He putting the hood back on this one and also has a great gate jock on his back to this event. If Cohen gets a clean break from this post I think the rest of the field will only see this on from the backside. The cut back to 6.5f from a route is just what the doctor ordered.
#2 Not Now Ashley WPS
2 over 1-3-4-5-7 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 3
This is the least exciting race on the card and should have been carded as the first race. I wont spend much time on this race and Im going to go with a layoff horse in this claiming event and I think the Assman will get his first win of the meet with this gelding. This one is coming off a 8 month layoff and will be fresh and ready for the other nags in this race.
#9 Philotimo WPS
9 over 2-4-6-10-13
RACE 4
Please see the above Dont Leave The Window box.
7 over 1-3-5-9-10-11 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 5 Turf Only
This is another wide open weed race. You can make a case for 4-5 of these runners in here. One thing I have noticed that many of these runners dont care for any give in the ground and if the rain comes down this is just one big boxcar bomb race that anyone of them can win. The gelding Im going to back is from the RED HOT Weaver barn and also coming into his 3rd race off a layoff. Eddie Castro take the mount as Maragh is on top of the speedster that is going to try and wire this field after a workout sprint race in his first back.
#1 Shekomeko Son WPS
1 over 2-4-5-7-8-9-10-11 Reverse in 2nd hole also.
This is an exacta and tri worth shooting at in this weed event.
Super Key
1 over 2-4-7-8-11 over 2-4-5-7-8-9-10-11 - .10 super = #21.00
RACE 6
This is an open and closed race to me. I have been reading other handicappers insight on this
race and have seen many of them make strong opinions on the Pletcher duo, Hess Jr., and McLauglin. The only other filly in this race to me that has a shot is Snow Fall from the Stidham barn. But Turbulent Descent is just a special one turn filly and Puype stated that after the SA Oaks and said that was going to be her last two turn race for a while. She has been pointed to this race and her last work at HW was chilling I have heard from my clocker. I really think with the Plethcer Duo and Bobby Flays Her Smile in here we might get even money.
#2 Turbulent Descent WP
2 over 1-6 over all
RACE 7
Please see the Dont Leave The Window box above.
3 over 1-2-4-5-7
RACE 8
This is a fine field of 3 yo except the Lukas horse and the excited placement of the owner of Bold Warrior. Jerkens didnt want to run here but the owner insisted. I see a big rebound performance from Travelin Man and his last 3/72 is all I need to see as its a sign of all systems a go.
#1 Travelin Man WP
1 over 2-5-6-7 over all
RACE 9 Turf Only
This looks to be a very tough race on paper but I see Billy Mott winning this race again this year as he did with Proviso last year. He has pointed this filly for this race and her last at CH was just plain awesome. There quit a few in here that can make a statement for place and show but I only see this filly winning this race, the only thing that can beat her in here is a bad trip or traffic.
2 Aviate - WP
2 over 1-3-5-6-8 over all Reverse in 2nd hole also.
RACE 10 Turf Only
We have the champ in here in Gio Ponti , who is coming a 5th place finish in the Dubai Wold
Cup. He is the class of this field and will take all the money at the widows. Then you have the OBrien colt coming off 8 days rest and also crossing the pound to the US for the first time and will be bet at the windows also. Really after these two you can make a case for many of them and Im going to a horse that has let me down many times in this big races. I see him carving out a nice trip from his outside post and if the pace is not so fast he will have enough left in the tank to make his last run to the wire and try and hold off the big boys coming from behind.
#9 Straight Story WPS
9 over 2-3-4-5-6-7 Revese in all 3 holes for the tri.
RACE 11
THE BELMONT
#1 Master of Hounds - He is the wiseguy horse and all the Nehro fan should be smiling in a big manner. He is bred to run the distance and they have stated he had trouble in the Derby and still finished 5th despite the trip only beaten 5 ½ lengths. Frank Lyons on TVG is screaming over this colt saying he is all in and so forth. Yes he has a shot at finishing in the money but you will never see me wagering on a colt with only 1 career win in the Belmont Stakes in eight career starts.
#2 Stay Thirsty He is very intriguing to me as he has had the best works over Big Sandy since arriving back to his home base from Churchill downs. His grand dad and daddy were both real runners and the distance of this race should be right up his ally. He never got a good surface to work over at CH and I really think he just hated that track. If he displays his works today he should be a factor down the lane and I really think he will get a piece of this race at huge odds. This colt IMO has been not handled in the right manner as he has always played second fiddle to Uncle Mo and after the Gotham they should of stayed in NY instead of shipping down south and bringing Uncle Mo up north.
#3 Ruler On Ice This one will have his named call early and often today as he will be closer to the pace with the addition of blinkers and is fresh coming off a good 2nd in the Tesio at Old Hilltop. This colt is a must use in the 3rd and 4th holes in the Super if your bankroll allows you to go deep. He is very much a live long shot for the Super. He has posted back to back bullet works over at Monmouth and looks to be flanking Shackleford and Prime Cut from the outset of the race.
#4 Santiva - This colt is the sheet players horse for the Belmont. When he broke his maiden in the KY Jockey Club I thought that was a very slow race. He then came back and ran his career best at the FG in the Risen Star after a 3 month layoff. Then I still cannot figure out what Kenneally did after the Risen Star. They wait two months and then run him on the Poly at Keeneland and he has the worst trip a horse could have during a race. He had no chance at all that day with the Frog Man in the saddle. It wouldnt shock me if he get a check today on the bottom end.
#5 Brilliant Speed This one is right on par with Master of Hounds and Santiva as he was coming late in the derby after a so called troubled trip. He is one of the better bred colts in this race and some major handicappers have him on top in this race. Joel makes the trip in from the left coast but I cannot make a win bet on this colt that hasnt hit the board on real dirt, and he is no Animal Kingdom.
#6 Nehro As I stated above all his backers should be happy that Master of Hounds is taking the early money at the windows. This will ensure his price will be at least the ml or maybe higher. He is fresh as they come and his work over the fast track at CH on May 30th was absolute awesome I have been told. The Assman has this one sitting on his career effort today and he always has had his backers and they are thinking the extra distance is what this colts needs. I will use him in my exotics and verticals but he isnt my win contender and as I have stated I cannot make a wager on a one win colt in the Belmont!!!!
#7 Monzon What I remember about this colt the most is his first race at Colonial I saw it and book him as a play back that day. He broke dead last that day and was dead last most of the race and when they let him out he closed like a freight train. I book him as a play back next out and his whole team must of known that was a workout race as he came back on won by a dozen at even money. Can he run in the super at huge odds yes if he runs back to his Countfleet victory in which he beat JJs Lucky Train and Pants On Fire (LA Derby Winner) that day. That was his career best and he hasnt show much of late shipping from NY to Fl and back to NY.
#8 Prime Cut This one for Howard has been running in place as he hasnt regressed but on the flip side he hasnt improved either. He will be part of the pace in this race as his running lines show he is always in the first or second position in his last four races. He might hold on for a share but I cannot see him winning this race with his speed figures.
#9 Animal Kingdom - Is he the best horse in this field, my answer is YES hands down. He should of won the Preakness but it just wasnt meant for him to win it. Will he win the Belmont today I think so and I think we will get a better price on him today than we did in the Preakness. I know the sheet players think he is way over the top and they stated that after the Derby and he showed up big time in the Preakness and will show up big time today at Big Sandy. One of the glaring factors for me is the way Motion has handled him from the Preakness, bringing him to Belmont for a work over the surface and did he work a bullet 4f 47.3 breezing. This horse is ready to run and will be closer to the pace today as JR knows what he is sitting on and he will win the Belmont by open lengths and will be the first favorite to win this year on the Triple Crown Trial.
#10 Mucho Macho Man - Well what is this colt going to do today. He closed in the derby to almost catch Nehro and was eating up ground like a good thing. Then he loses his shoe for the second time in the Preakness. Then you have Barry Irwin of Team Valor stating he is the only horse that can beat Animal Kingodm. Then I keep hearing how much weight he has lost and then his owner comes out and states they have the best horse in the country and he just needs to show it and then he states he dont know if this is the race. Then you have Ramon D take the mount and Maragh took the mount with Coa was injured and know gets the boot for the NY local jock.
#11 Isnt He Perfect This one is over his head and I just cannot make a case for him in this field, his is just plain to slow and out classed with these colts.
#12 Shackleford What can you say bad about this colt!!! He keep out running his breeding and he reminds me of Hard Spun or Cat Thief. Just horses that have hearts so big and give there all time and time again in each race. There isnt real what you call speed in this race and Shack ought to have his way on the front end and will be able to relax and have enough gas in the tank down the lane but he wont be able to hold off Animal Kingdom this time and maybe others.
#9 Animal Kingdom WP
Exacta Key 1st and 2nd Holes
9 over 1-8,12
Trifecta Key 1st and 2nd holes
9 over 1-2-5-6-10-12 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12
.10 Super Key 1st , 2nd and 3rd holes = $72.00 for all three if bankroll allows
9 over 1-2-5-6-10-12 over 1-2-5-6-10-12 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12
Gl, fb
Comments
FB analysis is dead on! Again hate Pletcher and the way he handles his horses. If there was no Uncle Mo this horse would be a different story. They wanted to run Uncle Mo in the Wood and they shipped this horse down to Gulfstream in 100 degree heat! IMO had no shot down there not saying he would of won the Wood but he might of had a better shot. Like the fact also he can rate a bit behind the front runners and is bred to hold the distance. love the works coming in and think this horse is ready to fire. GOOD LUCK
G/l To All Today
This is the type of weed race that will bankroll your day if you are able to catch the winner along with the exotics. There are at least five win candidates in this race. Im going with a shipper that is bred top and bottom for the weeds and broke his maiden going a route of ground and then came back to almost win last out after he dwelt at the start of the race. For those that doesnt know what dwelt means, means the horse didnt break from the gate with the rest of the field, sometime they can be declared a non starter.
# 6 Eternal Ruler (Ire) WPS
Such a good play.
#6 paid $9.00 place $6.30 show
$2.00 ex paid $63.50