Friday night play from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Hollywood - Race 5
#6 Boulder Creek (8/1 ml)
Re-claim for the obscure trainer Herbert Bacorn was moving quite well in his last start, moving up to take the lead around the turn vs. a couple of these (including 5/2 ml favorite Fire Break) before getting bumped hard from the inside and knocked off stride by another horse who was attempting to split between. Totally lost his momentum from that, and was then further compromised by some more light bumping with the same horse in upper stretch. Continued on pretty well after that to get necked for third by Fire Break (who had his own trouble around the turn, btw), and i think the stretch run is pretty much a throwout. That being the case, as mentioned before, Boulder Creek was moving very well before that, and might very well have posted the 8/1 upset with a clean trip. Speaking of which, he also projects for a pretty nice trip here, as he has good positional speed and should be sitting on the outside of Fire Break once again while tracking a potential speed-duel between Big Wags and Capture the Call. You might also note that Boulder Creek won his last start for Bacorn over this same surface and distance (over a return winner, no less). Excellent value here.
HRT record:
81 for 299 (27%)
$677.40 mutuels ($8.36 avg)
#6 Boulder Creek (8/1 ml)
Re-claim for the obscure trainer Herbert Bacorn was moving quite well in his last start, moving up to take the lead around the turn vs. a couple of these (including 5/2 ml favorite Fire Break) before getting bumped hard from the inside and knocked off stride by another horse who was attempting to split between. Totally lost his momentum from that, and was then further compromised by some more light bumping with the same horse in upper stretch. Continued on pretty well after that to get necked for third by Fire Break (who had his own trouble around the turn, btw), and i think the stretch run is pretty much a throwout. That being the case, as mentioned before, Boulder Creek was moving very well before that, and might very well have posted the 8/1 upset with a clean trip. Speaking of which, he also projects for a pretty nice trip here, as he has good positional speed and should be sitting on the outside of Fire Break once again while tracking a potential speed-duel between Big Wags and Capture the Call. You might also note that Boulder Creek won his last start for Bacorn over this same surface and distance (over a return winner, no less). Excellent value here.
HRT record:
81 for 299 (27%)
$677.40 mutuels ($8.36 avg)
Comments
Betting 6 Wps...with 3,5....see Ya At The Windows...
I could see this one drifting up too. Tough race IMO.
No chance. Gonna get bet. I think they butchered the ML on this one.......with trouble finishing a neck behind the 5/2 ML favorite here in the last race and they make him 8/1? AGAPITO has to go from the 1 post and if Pedroza concedes, Big Wags could be a good longshot exotic key with Boulder Creek.
BTW Dirty,
The last race Flores angle takes on a whole new meaning tonight. LOL
Here's the results for when he rode the last race 2 Friday nights back:
11 The Full Lavino D. Flores $38.00 $12.60 $9.60
10 Unusual Jazz M. Garcia $8.80 $7.40
5 Bryan Daniel R. Bejarano $3.40
Times in 5ths: :214 :45 1:11 1:173
Times in 100ths: :21.83 :45.11 1:11.14 1:17.76
gl, fb
Didn't you all use to follow this angel at LVA Sports a few years back?
Dirty, I'm talkin about this Flores in the last (whoever he is):
2T4YO and some guy named E Flores on #7 Aeroman 9/2 ML.........dueled and just tired while carrying 124lbs and Maldonado on his back. Now carries 112lbs for Cerin who's much better 2nd off the layoff and I can't imagine this is a big jock downgrade if any without knowing a thing about him. 3 straight 2nds on this track and some nice ones as a 3YO when carrying less weight. Tough to be a maiden still when you run 2nd in fields of 12, 12 and 14.........that's beating a lot of horses. Weight off, tighter, and more mature. Should run a good one tonight.
All 3 of those pretty correlated for verticals. I'll definitely have all 3 tied up. Should be noted Fire Break had a horrible trip in that last race. Nothing else to do for Garcia but completely pull the horse back and get shuffled to last to find room at the 1/4 pole.....had to make another move in the stretch to get clear to the outside and then strided out well.
Maybe a small chance he drifts up...
Great call with Agapito, hope you cashed something. The 'Flores' turned out to be an 18 yo high school kid who rode a great race, coming up a neck short against a baffert horse.
Flores again.