Belmont Race 7 Friday 6:04 EDT
John Greenhaw
Senior Member
Belmont 7
MC $65k 3 year olds 1 mile turf
This race has alot of lightly raced 3yo and some firsters. The two ml favs are very iffy and I will throw both out completely. Word on the backside is that there is some sneaky stuff going on here and calculated to result in a big pay-off for connections.
#7 EAST INDIES, 9/2
Formerly trained last summer by Kenny McPeek, went to Dominick Schettino and his last two races he has been very close at this level and distance. Runs on the front end, is the lone speed in here today, and the turf course is rock hard and favoring speed. Moreover, he goes from Ramon to Javier, but today they go elsewhere but Ramon's agent wanted the mount. Today the mount goes to underrated turf jock Jose Espinoza, and the word is that the connections are expecting a much better pay-off with lesser known jockey. Not only does this speedy horse have the lone speed, he also has the best late pace figures. A major win bet for me today!
I will throw in a couple at big odds for exotic plays underneath.
#1 APPALLING, 15-1
Tagg/Lezcano firster has two good gate works and followed those up with a blowout 5 days ago. Inside post is a drawback and so is Tagg's first out numbers, but his works have been visually impressive.
#4 COUSIN RICH, 10-1
Blinkers go on today and it should be pointed out that his best race to-date was on firm footing. Showing good speed in the A.M.
#10 BEST ACT, 6-1
Bombed on dirt. Tried turf in Feb at GP and came alive. Chad Brown sent this regally bred youngster to Saratoga Turf Tr. Track for extended works and word is he looks great. Should show more speed out of the gate with four ( 4 ) months off and Ramon has the mount after wanting the mount on #7 East Indies.
Win Bet and W/ P/ S on #7 East Indies
Tri key 7---1/4/10
If this one hits it should be HUGE!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
MC $65k 3 year olds 1 mile turf
This race has alot of lightly raced 3yo and some firsters. The two ml favs are very iffy and I will throw both out completely. Word on the backside is that there is some sneaky stuff going on here and calculated to result in a big pay-off for connections.
#7 EAST INDIES, 9/2
Formerly trained last summer by Kenny McPeek, went to Dominick Schettino and his last two races he has been very close at this level and distance. Runs on the front end, is the lone speed in here today, and the turf course is rock hard and favoring speed. Moreover, he goes from Ramon to Javier, but today they go elsewhere but Ramon's agent wanted the mount. Today the mount goes to underrated turf jock Jose Espinoza, and the word is that the connections are expecting a much better pay-off with lesser known jockey. Not only does this speedy horse have the lone speed, he also has the best late pace figures. A major win bet for me today!
I will throw in a couple at big odds for exotic plays underneath.
#1 APPALLING, 15-1
Tagg/Lezcano firster has two good gate works and followed those up with a blowout 5 days ago. Inside post is a drawback and so is Tagg's first out numbers, but his works have been visually impressive.
#4 COUSIN RICH, 10-1
Blinkers go on today and it should be pointed out that his best race to-date was on firm footing. Showing good speed in the A.M.
#10 BEST ACT, 6-1
Bombed on dirt. Tried turf in Feb at GP and came alive. Chad Brown sent this regally bred youngster to Saratoga Turf Tr. Track for extended works and word is he looks great. Should show more speed out of the gate with four ( 4 ) months off and Ramon has the mount after wanting the mount on #7 East Indies.
Win Bet and W/ P/ S on #7 East Indies
Tri key 7---1/4/10
If this one hits it should be HUGE!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Comments
However, I also got word on what they are playing today, pre-scratches
1st---2---4/6---3/5
3rd---2 over 1/5
4th---All they have on #6 ZOW, but expect 1/1 or less
8th---2/3/4 ex and tri
9th---ex bx 5/7/9
May have something later from Churchill, stay tuned! GOOD LUCK!
I agree that East Indies figures as the only speed and should get things his own way.
But I think that the 'other' ones in the race are:
#3, Mosquito: he's not much but he'd have won two back if not Ramoned. He had a very nice trip but the winner had a better one. His MTH race is disappointing but early on it appears that was having trouble with the footing.
#6 Legend of Navaronne: when I checked out the replay of the MTH race for #3, I couldn't help noticing that this one ran a very nice effort in it -premature sweeping wide move on the turn to open a lead; then run down by a later mover, in a race that fell apart otherwise. Much better than the 3; and, probably, better than the winner. To that point he hadn't really shown much. Maybe these are better but this one figures to be stalking the 7 or even pressing it; and the cutback will certainly work to its favor.
No idea what I'm doing with these until I see the betting action. But I won't be using any others.
Good Luck
Of course, if the turf is playing like SAR's turf courses did last year, then the 7 wires. I'll watch the turf races prior to the 7th and see what's going on.
You think there is a Speed Bias on the weeds, I would say so. Killed me last week in the stakes race and the week before. Zagora should of won that race last weekend and Longhunter the week before had no shot either two weeks back. This speed bias has been going on all meet IMO!!!!! Just go watch the replays of CS Silk and Mission Approved on Belmont day.