8/18-- WO-SAR--Live Play

tmffm

WO R3:

#1, Cabriole: Contreras stays up, she's cutting back and should get a nice stalking trip. Chalk but I can't go against her.

# 3, Group Hug: like her last race routing.

#4, Susanbandoozan: has beaten and lost to the 1 going 7F. Have to use her but I'm not sold on her today.

#8, La Belle Bear: just broke her maiden and figures to either set or contest the pace. Have to use her.

These are all demonstrated 7F horses. Have tossed the others.

Exotics: 1 OVER 3,4,8

tmffm

SAR R5:

#2, System Ready: coming out of race that a few others in today's race also ran in last out. The race fell apart and this one held the best of all the pacesetters. Similar run today gets it done

tmffm

They scratched the 6, which had ZERO shot, late and cut our prices a bit. Also, should've gone with my gut and completely tossed the 4 in the under spots, using just a two number exacta and tri. I thought the 3 was 2nd best and she ran that way. Not a great return but good enough:

Woodbine T-bred - Race 3
# Win Place Show
1 $5.00 $3.00 $2.10
3 . $4.30 $2.70
8 . . $2.10

$2.00 Exacta 1-3 $23.90
$2.00 Trifecta 1-3-8 $54.80

tmffm

They went ARABIANS' pace and the 2 still couldn't get it done. Sciacca wins it with a stretchout horse. Where's the Pletcher SPA JUICE when you need it?

tmffm

WO R4:
chance to make some money as I don't like the favorite.
#Savethethought, currently 6:5, comes out of a race that completely fell apart going 9F. She cuts back 1/16th and needs a COMPLETE PACE COLLAPSE -- even worse than last time -- to get it done. I'd LAY this one if I had betfair.

#4, Sava River: tried a middle move in that 9F race and a similar run puts her right there. Nice odds. WIN BET

#3 and #8, both closed going 7F -- could get a piece.

#7, Will she Crow: tricky BOMB.

use these with the 4 in exotics

tmffm

#3 wins it easily and does it from ON the pace -- go figure

#9, coming out of the same race as the winner (held the best of the pace horses) runs 2nd @ 7:1

#4, runs 3rd @ 24:5 --- funny ride by Moore on this one --- didn't ask her till the race was basically over

#7, gets fourth @ 60:1

all these came out of the same race last out.

tmffm

WO R5:
TERRIBLE BUNCH.

#5, Northern Store, is something like 0 for 25, with a handful of BAD RIDES -- including last out. Hard to take short odds on this one, even the trainer is not exactly confident, BUT, if Husbands gives him a well timed ride -- CORRECTION-- if Husbands doesn't give him one of his patented RETARDED RIDES-- this one figures to be right there.

#2, Wookinwicked: another one that's had multiple chances and a number of bad rides. But his two best races are at today's distance and Contreras stays up. He ain't much but the others are probably worse.

#3, Draw a Line: some improved races -- best of the rest.

Exacta and tri: 5 / 2,3

tmffm

EDIT:

#2, is the chalk with 2 minutes to post: Contreras money or Attard sending it in?

switch to exacta: 5/2, 3; 2,5
no tri

tmffm

See, when you try to handicap TWO CARDS on the fly, with no advance preparation, on FOUR hours sleep, FUCKUPS are bound to happen. I mean, they ran EXACTLY like I originally thought. Supposed to have the exacta and TRI with only TWO pops each; instead of playing like a PUSSY and worrying about what the public is doing (ironically, the exact opposite of what transpired last race). Made money but should've made MORE.

Woodbine T-bred - Race 5
# Win Place Show
5 $7.00 $3.40 $2.80
2 . $4.40 $3.30
3 . . $4.90

$2.00 Exacta 5-2 $20.70
$2.00 Trifecta 5-2-3 $82.90
$2.00 Exacta 5-2 $20.70
$2.00 Trifecta 5-2-3 $82.90

tmffm

Why off the turf for R7 @ SAR?

tmffm

SAR R8:

#5, Tahoe Warrior: should be able to work out a good trip here. Will bet to win if > 3:1.
#6, Sumfun: sneaky. WIll bet him to win if > 10:1

Not crazy about #8, Free Brave, the chalk. He can certainly get a piece and I'll use him in exotics; but I'll try to beat him.

tmffm

I don't know what Dominguez was thinking: he's supposed to let the 7 duel with the 3 and sit a trip.

As it was, I bet the 3 last out and he spit it out in race where the top 4 were there around the track.

But he's probably coming down anyway.

tmffm

WO R7: full field and a tough race. going to keep it simple

no idea why #5, Nafta, is 9:1 with 3 min to post. Hasn't run since late June but he's demonstrated that he can handle this class over this distance.
win

tmffm

I got LAST YEARS patented Luis Contreras ride. But the horse was just dull.

tmffm

Almost done:

SAR R9:
letting Icabad Crane beat me.
#8, Pocket Cowboys: some nice races and Prado OFF, Castellano UP. Should be able to work out a good trip.
#2, Gimme Credit: something is pulling me towards using this horse. Doesn't appear to be able to handle these off recent form but his last race was an improvement. I'll make a win bet on him if > 20:1.

R 10:

#4, SIngmeasong: supposed to get a stalking trip today and win if the 9 quits.
#9, Simsational: one more chance on the front end.

DOUBLE: 8 / 4, 9

tmffm

BAD LUCK

8 blows the break then has the widest trip in ARABIAN fractions. ran late for 3rd

it happens

tmffm

WO R8:

#10, Park Place: Contreras skunked him two back; then Husbands screwed him up last time. Stretching to 8F, supposed to beat this field.

exotics: 10 over 4,5,6,9

tmffm

10 gets nosed out by a 45:1 shot, that came again to get him, with the 9 3rd.
ha ha ha

time for some fast food