Woodbine Million Race From Ragozin
randyf
Senior Member
Ragozin Insider: Woodbine Mile
09/17/2011 8:26 PM ET
by Bob Ehalt
A race like the Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1) typically is a great wagering proposition. Each year, it can be counted on to bring together such spicy ingredients as a large field, international competitors, and a flat mile distance that is too long for sprinters and too short for routers.
The sixth edition of the $1-million stakes today offers all of those elements and more, but may produce a rather bland taste at the windows.
As simple as it might be to like a morning-line favorite, Courageous Cat has much more than an oddsmakers backing going for him. Based on his Ragozin speed figures, he is the fastest horse in the race. He also holds a large enough edge over his 11 rivals that he looms the probable winner of the race.
His 3-to-1 odds will not make anyone rich, but they seem a square price for a horse that stands out above the others.
Courageous Cat comes into the Woodbine Mile off a neck victory in the Shoemaker Mile Stakes (G1), where he matched his career-best Ragozin speed figure of 2. While he recorded a 6 ¼ in winning his previous race, the Poker Stakes (G3), having 11 weeks of rest since the Shoemaker Mile should lessen his bounce off such a draining race and allow him to chalk up a figure like a 3 today.
Back in 2009, when Courageous Cat posted a 2 for the first time as the runner-up to Goldikova in the TVG Breeders Cup Mile (G1), he was given more than three months off and slipped only slightly to a 2 ¾ in his subsequent start.
Helping his cause is a field with a noticeable lack of number power.
The next three choices in the morning lineEuropes Side Glance and Dance And Dance and Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) winner Turallurehave not run faster than a 6 this year, and a 5 seems a fair target for them today. Dance And Dance gets a slight nod as the fastest among that group with a pair of 6s in his previous two starts.
Although he must avoid a wide trip from post 12, a more attractive offering for the exotics is Court Vision, who will make his first start for new trainer Dale Romans. Court Vision won last years Woodbine Mile with a 4at 7-to-1 odds, no lessafter coming into the Grade 1 stakes off a 3 ½-month layoff with a 7 ½-5-3 in his three previous starts.
This year, he has not run in three months and has a line of 4 ¾-7 ¾-8 ½. At a 10-to-1 morning-line price, he might not be as fast as Courageous Cat but does offer the best available dose of good, old fashioned value in the race.
Riding the River, a hometown Woodbine-based runner, also looks interesting with a line of 7¼-6 ¼-7. Having just three weeks is a drawback and he is slower than some of the others in the field. At 20-to-1, however, he deserves a spot in the exotics, even if it is toward the bottom of a ticket topped by a deserving favorite.
Ricoh Woodbine Mile S. (Can-G1)
September 18, $1-million, 3yo&up, 1mT, Woodbine, 5:42 PM ET
P
Horse
Jockey
ML odds
Bob Ehalts comment
1.
Hollinger
T. Pizarro
30-to-1
Is on the slow side with a top of 8 1/4.
2.
Forte Dei Marmi
J. Velazquez
15-to-1
European has an 11-11 -16 and is overmatched unless Lasix helps
3.
Woodbourne
E. Wilson
30-to-1
An 8 last time, but this is his fifth start in than 3 months
4.
Courageous Cat
P. Valenzuela
3-to-1
He is the fastest of them all with a 2 last time
5.
Right One
G. Gomez
8-to-1
Just an 8 ½-8 1/ 4-6 ¾ in his last three
6.
Grand Adventure
P. Husbands
8-to-1
Is inching forward with a 7 ¼-7 ½-8.
7.
Riding the River
R. Dos Ramos
20-to-1
A candidate for the exotics off a 7¼-6 ¼-7.
8.
Turallure
J. Leparaux
5-1
Has a 6-7 ½-5 but only three weeks rest
9.
Side Glance
J. Fortune
4-to-1
European has paired 6 ½s and could move forward
10.
Karas Orientation
E. Ramsammy
15-to-1
Enters off a trio of 8s
11.
Dance and Dance
J. Spencer
6-to-1
Tops the Europeans with a 6-6-7
12.
Court Vision
R. Albarado
10-to-1
Last years winner offers value off a 4 ¾ last time
09/17/2011 8:26 PM ET
by Bob Ehalt
A race like the Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1) typically is a great wagering proposition. Each year, it can be counted on to bring together such spicy ingredients as a large field, international competitors, and a flat mile distance that is too long for sprinters and too short for routers.
The sixth edition of the $1-million stakes today offers all of those elements and more, but may produce a rather bland taste at the windows.
As simple as it might be to like a morning-line favorite, Courageous Cat has much more than an oddsmakers backing going for him. Based on his Ragozin speed figures, he is the fastest horse in the race. He also holds a large enough edge over his 11 rivals that he looms the probable winner of the race.
His 3-to-1 odds will not make anyone rich, but they seem a square price for a horse that stands out above the others.
Courageous Cat comes into the Woodbine Mile off a neck victory in the Shoemaker Mile Stakes (G1), where he matched his career-best Ragozin speed figure of 2. While he recorded a 6 ¼ in winning his previous race, the Poker Stakes (G3), having 11 weeks of rest since the Shoemaker Mile should lessen his bounce off such a draining race and allow him to chalk up a figure like a 3 today.
Back in 2009, when Courageous Cat posted a 2 for the first time as the runner-up to Goldikova in the TVG Breeders Cup Mile (G1), he was given more than three months off and slipped only slightly to a 2 ¾ in his subsequent start.
Helping his cause is a field with a noticeable lack of number power.
The next three choices in the morning lineEuropes Side Glance and Dance And Dance and Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) winner Turallurehave not run faster than a 6 this year, and a 5 seems a fair target for them today. Dance And Dance gets a slight nod as the fastest among that group with a pair of 6s in his previous two starts.
Although he must avoid a wide trip from post 12, a more attractive offering for the exotics is Court Vision, who will make his first start for new trainer Dale Romans. Court Vision won last years Woodbine Mile with a 4at 7-to-1 odds, no lessafter coming into the Grade 1 stakes off a 3 ½-month layoff with a 7 ½-5-3 in his three previous starts.
This year, he has not run in three months and has a line of 4 ¾-7 ¾-8 ½. At a 10-to-1 morning-line price, he might not be as fast as Courageous Cat but does offer the best available dose of good, old fashioned value in the race.
Riding the River, a hometown Woodbine-based runner, also looks interesting with a line of 7¼-6 ¼-7. Having just three weeks is a drawback and he is slower than some of the others in the field. At 20-to-1, however, he deserves a spot in the exotics, even if it is toward the bottom of a ticket topped by a deserving favorite.
Ricoh Woodbine Mile S. (Can-G1)
September 18, $1-million, 3yo&up, 1mT, Woodbine, 5:42 PM ET
P
Horse
Jockey
ML odds
Bob Ehalts comment
1.
Hollinger
T. Pizarro
30-to-1
Is on the slow side with a top of 8 1/4.
2.
Forte Dei Marmi
J. Velazquez
15-to-1
European has an 11-11 -16 and is overmatched unless Lasix helps
3.
Woodbourne
E. Wilson
30-to-1
An 8 last time, but this is his fifth start in than 3 months
4.
Courageous Cat
P. Valenzuela
3-to-1
He is the fastest of them all with a 2 last time
5.
Right One
G. Gomez
8-to-1
Just an 8 ½-8 1/ 4-6 ¾ in his last three
6.
Grand Adventure
P. Husbands
8-to-1
Is inching forward with a 7 ¼-7 ½-8.
7.
Riding the River
R. Dos Ramos
20-to-1
A candidate for the exotics off a 7¼-6 ¼-7.
8.
Turallure
J. Leparaux
5-1
Has a 6-7 ½-5 but only three weeks rest
9.
Side Glance
J. Fortune
4-to-1
European has paired 6 ½s and could move forward
10.
Karas Orientation
E. Ramsammy
15-to-1
Enters off a trio of 8s
11.
Dance and Dance
J. Spencer
6-to-1
Tops the Europeans with a 6-6-7
12.
Court Vision
R. Albarado
10-to-1
Last years winner offers value off a 4 ¾ last time
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