Saturday play from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Belmont - Race 2
#3 Wharton (4/1 ml)
Very interesting 2yo colt for Asmussen here. First off, he brought almost a half-million dollars at the Keeneland sale back in April after working a furlong in 10 seconds flat (one tick off the show's best). As for his recent activity, he worked heads-up from the gate back on Aug 24 with an older barnmate named Precious Metal, who came out of that drill to finish a late-running second in a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint, after getting knocked sideways at the start. Much more importantly however, he also happened to work heads-up on Sep 12 with older barnmate Justin Phillip, who was last seen running third (2 lengths behind Uncle Mo) in the Grade 1 King's Bishop. Looks like this guy can probably run a little. Asmussen reaches for rider David Cohen here, and he's done quite well with Cohen, hitting 28%. Also worth noting that Cohen had a whole lot of success last year when riding 2yo firsters from the Todd Pletcher barn, so he's definitely good with young horses. Just a whole lot to like here. The one thing i don't like is that the track is listed as sloppy (as of this morning's Belmont worktab), and of course that's a pretty large unknown factor to deal with. Worth noting however that Wharton is a son of War Front (sire of BC Sprint favorite The Factor, btw), who is a son of Danzig, and Danzig progeny are known to relish the mud more often than not. Potentially some big value here as the third choice on the morning line.
HRT record:
84 for 307 (27%)
$697.40 mutuels ($8.30 avg)
#3 Wharton (4/1 ml)
Very interesting 2yo colt for Asmussen here. First off, he brought almost a half-million dollars at the Keeneland sale back in April after working a furlong in 10 seconds flat (one tick off the show's best). As for his recent activity, he worked heads-up from the gate back on Aug 24 with an older barnmate named Precious Metal, who came out of that drill to finish a late-running second in a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint, after getting knocked sideways at the start. Much more importantly however, he also happened to work heads-up on Sep 12 with older barnmate Justin Phillip, who was last seen running third (2 lengths behind Uncle Mo) in the Grade 1 King's Bishop. Looks like this guy can probably run a little. Asmussen reaches for rider David Cohen here, and he's done quite well with Cohen, hitting 28%. Also worth noting that Cohen had a whole lot of success last year when riding 2yo firsters from the Todd Pletcher barn, so he's definitely good with young horses. Just a whole lot to like here. The one thing i don't like is that the track is listed as sloppy (as of this morning's Belmont worktab), and of course that's a pretty large unknown factor to deal with. Worth noting however that Wharton is a son of War Front (sire of BC Sprint favorite The Factor, btw), who is a son of Danzig, and Danzig progeny are known to relish the mud more often than not. Potentially some big value here as the third choice on the morning line.
HRT record:
84 for 307 (27%)
$697.40 mutuels ($8.30 avg)
Comments
Thanks for the head's up. I am told that Wharton came out of the April Keeneland sale with bucked shins, and who wouldn't after going 10 flat. Assman brought him up to Spa after rehab and has brought him along slowly and carefully for Jess Jackson connections. Early speed should be a good thing today at Belmont slop, and Davey Cohen is pretty good at getting a young horse out of the gate running. The #7 Little Wyatt, 10-1, showed freakish speed in his debut and faded going 7 furlongs. The cut back today to 5 1/2 may make him a exotic play at a price?