Aqueduct Sunday Race 6-$$$$$$

John Greenhaw

Mdn $40k 2yo NY Bred 6 furlongs

My information on this race comes straight from the top. This qualifies as my strongest play of the day. Let's hope it works out as I am going heavy!

#1 OFFICERANDAFOOSE, 5-1
Made his first start back in early July, heavily bet, and lost all chance when he broke sideways and came back a little sore. Has come back to work fast and/or long. Spotted right today and gets an inside post in a sprint race. IMO, and others, his main competition is drawn far outside and the stats for those in these kind of races are not good. The key in here, and all who follow my selections already know this, is that Gary goes with Jose Espinsoza today as his jockey, a move which Contessa will often use when he plans on making a big play himself. BINGO! Watch the toteboard as a signal, but 4-1 is very realistic.
For exotic players, take a look at key #1 over the #'s 2/3/4/6.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

DiscreetCat

John Greenhaw wrote: »

The key in here, and all who follow my selections already know this, is that Gary goes with Jose Espinsoza today as his jockey, a move which Contessa will often use when he plans on making a big play himself. !

I'm a little confused by this. According to the stats in DRF, the Gary Contessa/Jose Espinoza stats are 1-for-24 at Aqueduct, and 8-for-101 overall, with both showing sizable flat-bet losses. Those numbers cover roughly the last 23 months.

I watched the replay on this one, and he definitely hopped pretty badly at the break to lose some ground, then showed some nice acceleration while rushing into contention on the outside. KInd of had a tough go of it after that due to the lost ground while racing wide into and around the turn, so combine that with the break and it does seem to be a bit of a throwout (especially since he disappeared afterward, and you did say he came back sore, so he probably injured himself a bit during the running as well). Like the bullet early this month with the nice slow breeze afterward. Good luck, hope he runs big for you!

John Greenhaw

I didn't realize the Contessa/Espinoza numbers were that low. Less that 8% winners is quite alarming and probably why this is a move which goes unknown and nobody notices? However, Espinoza gets alot of Contessa mounts which have little to no chance, so it is important to watch the toteboard when these two send one out. The barn expects him to get a good rail trip today, and they are thrilled with the post as they think the Aqueduct rail is beginning to return to it's notorious bias? There are a couple of firsters in here who have interesting works, I think the #'s 3 & 6. The #6 has been working on Keeneland Poly so who knows what he will do on dirt? The #3 had a eye-popping work a few back so he clearly can show some speed. The Ramon and Javier mounts will have to do alot early to not get caught wide on the turn, and I just don't think they will show that kind of speed, or if they do they will pay for it late.

Austin Brown didn't breeze yesterday at Palm Meadows, probably sometime this week, and TAP has been told to put blinkers back on!!!