Home Run futures
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Have seen these around town in a few spots, and there's one number that definitely caught my eye.
Joey Votto @ 40/1
Didn't play it big, because frankly, it's highly unlikely he'll pull it off. It's not 1-in-40 unlikely though, so i do think there's some value there. No question that Votto is one of the very best hitters in the majors, and you can pretty pencil him in for around 35 homers. If he does happen to have that big career year (and he's about the right age for it), he could certainly roll into the mid-40's. Who knows if that'd be good enough, but it's probably right in the neighborhood. So yeah, he's capable of doing it. It also doesn't hurt that Cincinnati is a very good hitter's park, and Votto has been extremely durable throughout his career, so he's a lot less likely to hit the DL than some other guys are (Nelson Cruz, anyone?). Again, not a huge play or anything, but defiitely some value at that number. Just wanted to post in case a few of you guys wanted to take a shot at it. If nothing else, it'll be fun to root for throughout the course of the year.
Another one (that might be an even better play) is Pujols @ 10/1. As mentioned, the HR leader figures to land somewhere in the 40's, and Pujols is one of just a very few guys who regularly crosses that threshold. He's been quite durable (except for last year, and he STILL put up big numbers then), is due for a bit of a bounceback after what was a sub-par year by his standards (doubtful he's in much decline yet, in his very early 30's), and the move to the AL is potentially very positive for his numbers. Not quite Petco-to-Fenway like Adrian Gonzalez last year, but plenty of visits to places like Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Arlington, Camden Yards, etc. Safe to say there aren't 9 guys who figure to beat Pujols in homers, and really, does anyone deserve to be favored over him? Bautista, perhaps, but even that's pretty close. I've seen Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton favored over Pujols on these sheets, for pete's sake. As great a young talent as Stanton is, are you kidding me??? Especially in that new Marlins ballpark, which is supposed to be a rather pronounced pitcher's park by all accounts. So yeah, i think Albert represents some value @ 10/1.
Joey Votto @ 40/1
Didn't play it big, because frankly, it's highly unlikely he'll pull it off. It's not 1-in-40 unlikely though, so i do think there's some value there. No question that Votto is one of the very best hitters in the majors, and you can pretty pencil him in for around 35 homers. If he does happen to have that big career year (and he's about the right age for it), he could certainly roll into the mid-40's. Who knows if that'd be good enough, but it's probably right in the neighborhood. So yeah, he's capable of doing it. It also doesn't hurt that Cincinnati is a very good hitter's park, and Votto has been extremely durable throughout his career, so he's a lot less likely to hit the DL than some other guys are (Nelson Cruz, anyone?). Again, not a huge play or anything, but defiitely some value at that number. Just wanted to post in case a few of you guys wanted to take a shot at it. If nothing else, it'll be fun to root for throughout the course of the year.
Another one (that might be an even better play) is Pujols @ 10/1. As mentioned, the HR leader figures to land somewhere in the 40's, and Pujols is one of just a very few guys who regularly crosses that threshold. He's been quite durable (except for last year, and he STILL put up big numbers then), is due for a bit of a bounceback after what was a sub-par year by his standards (doubtful he's in much decline yet, in his very early 30's), and the move to the AL is potentially very positive for his numbers. Not quite Petco-to-Fenway like Adrian Gonzalez last year, but plenty of visits to places like Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Arlington, Camden Yards, etc. Safe to say there aren't 9 guys who figure to beat Pujols in homers, and really, does anyone deserve to be favored over him? Bautista, perhaps, but even that's pretty close. I've seen Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton favored over Pujols on these sheets, for pete's sake. As great a young talent as Stanton is, are you kidding me??? Especially in that new Marlins ballpark, which is supposed to be a rather pronounced pitcher's park by all accounts. So yeah, i think Albert represents some value @ 10/1.