Lone Star Park - 4/13/12
jjohns7777
Senior Member
Two of my friends are going out to Lone Star Park today and asked me for ideas, so I wrote up some suggestions for them. This is an email I sent to them. Thought I'd post my picks here to see what you guys think:
First, unless you just really want to bet every race, I personally would stay away from the 1st, 2nd, and 9th races, but I'll include my own picks for those in case you really want to bet them:
1st
8 - Big Chief Deke , 10 - Heavenly Shiloh, 12 - Illuminated Okie
Big Chief Deke would be a pretty solid pick if this weren't a Maiden race. Some horses can be very fast, but just don't want to lead the pack.
2nd
1 - With a Dance, 5 - Jodie Capote, 7 - Rain in the Bar
I really don't have a lot of confidence in this race. These are the horses that have shown the most speed in the past.
3rd
2 - Texas Tycoon, 7 - Bet on Sunday, 3 - Tiz Time
Texas Tycoon looks like a "mortal lock" in this one. He'll be a heavy favorite, so won't pay much.
4th
3 - Baltimore Bob, 4 - Alwayswithapproval, 7 - Karama
These three might be a good trifecta ticket. Really like Baltimore Bob, here. 4 & 7 could go either way for place and show, I think
5th
2 - Nothingbettertodo, 5 - Ide Bet Dixie, 1a - At the Net
At the Net could surprise and win this, but Nothingbettertodo has a speed and class advantage
6th
1 - Benestar, 4 - Aces N Kings, 7 - Her Man
I really, really like Benestar, here. I wouldn't call him a "mortal lock" like Texas Tycoon, but he's the lone speed and he's won at a much higher class.
7th
8 - Meant to Be Here, 6 - U Go Roy, 3 - Tappyhour
I wasn't super confident here, but Meant to Be Here is dropping in class and has the best recent speed, so I like him
8th
12 - Anaan, 7 - Kiss My Kriss, 1 - Ocean Seven
The morning line for Anaan is 12-1, which makes him a long shot, but I'm not sure why. He's a classy horse, dropping for this race, and he has shown good speed. The track experts like Lime Rickey, but I think they got it wrong.
If you have some extra money, and want to take a wild long shot, here's where to do it. Lone speed is normally a big advantage, and #9 - Dakota Adieu is the lone speed in the race. The problem is he's coming up in class (meaning he hasn't raced against this quality of horses before) and he hasn't shown the speed the others have had in the past. They might just let him jump out in front, anyway, because he's that type of horse. If that happens, he could win going away. His morning line is 30-1, so he'll pay big if he pulls it off.
9th
6 - Break for the finish
4 - My Honkytonk Angel
3 - Growsontrees
First, unless you just really want to bet every race, I personally would stay away from the 1st, 2nd, and 9th races, but I'll include my own picks for those in case you really want to bet them:
1st
8 - Big Chief Deke , 10 - Heavenly Shiloh, 12 - Illuminated Okie
Big Chief Deke would be a pretty solid pick if this weren't a Maiden race. Some horses can be very fast, but just don't want to lead the pack.
2nd
1 - With a Dance, 5 - Jodie Capote, 7 - Rain in the Bar
I really don't have a lot of confidence in this race. These are the horses that have shown the most speed in the past.
3rd
2 - Texas Tycoon, 7 - Bet on Sunday, 3 - Tiz Time
Texas Tycoon looks like a "mortal lock" in this one. He'll be a heavy favorite, so won't pay much.
4th
3 - Baltimore Bob, 4 - Alwayswithapproval, 7 - Karama
These three might be a good trifecta ticket. Really like Baltimore Bob, here. 4 & 7 could go either way for place and show, I think
5th
2 - Nothingbettertodo, 5 - Ide Bet Dixie, 1a - At the Net
At the Net could surprise and win this, but Nothingbettertodo has a speed and class advantage
6th
1 - Benestar, 4 - Aces N Kings, 7 - Her Man
I really, really like Benestar, here. I wouldn't call him a "mortal lock" like Texas Tycoon, but he's the lone speed and he's won at a much higher class.
7th
8 - Meant to Be Here, 6 - U Go Roy, 3 - Tappyhour
I wasn't super confident here, but Meant to Be Here is dropping in class and has the best recent speed, so I like him
8th
12 - Anaan, 7 - Kiss My Kriss, 1 - Ocean Seven
The morning line for Anaan is 12-1, which makes him a long shot, but I'm not sure why. He's a classy horse, dropping for this race, and he has shown good speed. The track experts like Lime Rickey, but I think they got it wrong.
If you have some extra money, and want to take a wild long shot, here's where to do it. Lone speed is normally a big advantage, and #9 - Dakota Adieu is the lone speed in the race. The problem is he's coming up in class (meaning he hasn't raced against this quality of horses before) and he hasn't shown the speed the others have had in the past. They might just let him jump out in front, anyway, because he's that type of horse. If that happens, he could win going away. His morning line is 30-1, so he'll pay big if he pulls it off.
9th
6 - Break for the finish
4 - My Honkytonk Angel
3 - Growsontrees
Comments
PICKS: 8 - Big Chief Deke , 10 - Heavenly Shiloh, 12 - Illuminated Okie
ACTUAL: 8 - Big Chief Deke, 4 - Moravian Prince, 5 - Stop Talking
2nd
PICKS: 1 - With a Dance, 5 - Jodie Capote, 7 - Rain in the Bar
ACTUAL: 2 - Blossoming, 6 - Lidlove, 1 - With a Dance
3rd
PICKS: 2 - Texas Tycoon, 7 - Bet on Sunday, 3 - Tiz Time
ACTUAL: 2 - Texas Tycoon, 6 - Kelevra, 1 - Cook's Nook
4th
PICKS: 3 - Baltimore Bob, 4 - Alwayswithapproval, 7 - Karama
ACTUAL: 5 - Scrappy Roo, 6 - Safe Range, 7 - Karama
5th
PICKS: 2 - Nothingbettertodo, 5 - Ide Bet Dixie, 1a - At the Net
ACTUAL: 2 - Nothingbettertodo, 1 - Peppermint Bling, 3 - Biddy Lulu
6th
PICKS: 1 - Benestar, 4 - Aces N Kings, 7 - Her Man
ACTUAL: 5 - Col Wright, 4 - Aces N Kings, 7 - Her Man
7th
PICKS: 8 - Meant to Be Here, 6 - U Go Roy, 3 - Tappyhour
ACTUAL: 6 - U Go Roy, 5 - Sugarbuga, 4 - Thundronthmountain
8th
PICKS: 12 - Anaan, 7 - Kiss My Kriss, 1 - Ocean Seven
ACTUAL: 4 - Lime Rickey (I know), 3 - Seeking West, 6 - Free Sailing
9th
PICKS: 6 - Break for the finish, 4 - My Honkytonk Angel, 3 - Growsontrees
ACTUAL: 3 - Growsontrees, 6 - Break for the finish, 1 - Looknlikeasuperstar