Arkansas Derby Analysis and Plays
jaanis
Junior Member
I am just betting the two favorites will burn each other out here. Secret Circle & Bodemeister are going to put themselves into a huge pace duel. I am throwing both of them out.
2 Stat - I bet the sharps will be all over this horse. Pletcher/Velazquez dont just show up with AOW winner at the Arkansas Derby for no reason. I will use in exotics.
3 Najjaar - Experience at Oaklawn Park 2 for 3. Calvin wont wait as long to get him going today. I am shooting for a price today and will use on top.
4 Jake Mo - Dont know much about jock or trainer, but I am putting in exotics because he is a closer. The horse seems to get itself in trouble and then figures out he is supposed to be racing when it is too late. Might use in 3rd or 4th.
6 Isnt He Clever - I have never been high on the Sunland Derby horses, but this horse has some nice back class and Sire/Dam combo is tits. Expect the horse to rate off the early pace. I dont like seeing "Outfinished" so much in trackman comments, but will use for 2-3.
7 Optimizer - Jon Court is the perfect jockey for this closing type of horse. Finishing 3/4 behind Secret Circle is not easy task. Using for ex boxes with the #3.
9 Sabercat - Nakatani has been killing it at Oaklawn thus far. My problem is why this combo failed so badly in the Rebel a few weeks back.
I dont feel the rest of the horses have a chance. So the bets are:
WPS: #3
Ex Box: 3-7
Tri Wheels:
3/2-6-7/2-4-6-7-9
Just in case the favs run well:
5-11/2-3-4-6-7-9/2-3-4-6-7-9
2 Stat - I bet the sharps will be all over this horse. Pletcher/Velazquez dont just show up with AOW winner at the Arkansas Derby for no reason. I will use in exotics.
3 Najjaar - Experience at Oaklawn Park 2 for 3. Calvin wont wait as long to get him going today. I am shooting for a price today and will use on top.
4 Jake Mo - Dont know much about jock or trainer, but I am putting in exotics because he is a closer. The horse seems to get itself in trouble and then figures out he is supposed to be racing when it is too late. Might use in 3rd or 4th.
6 Isnt He Clever - I have never been high on the Sunland Derby horses, but this horse has some nice back class and Sire/Dam combo is tits. Expect the horse to rate off the early pace. I dont like seeing "Outfinished" so much in trackman comments, but will use for 2-3.
7 Optimizer - Jon Court is the perfect jockey for this closing type of horse. Finishing 3/4 behind Secret Circle is not easy task. Using for ex boxes with the #3.
9 Sabercat - Nakatani has been killing it at Oaklawn thus far. My problem is why this combo failed so badly in the Rebel a few weeks back.
I dont feel the rest of the horses have a chance. So the bets are:
WPS: #3
Ex Box: 3-7
Tri Wheels:
3/2-6-7/2-4-6-7-9
Just in case the favs run well:
5-11/2-3-4-6-7-9/2-3-4-6-7-9
Comments
Could definitely happen, but also worth noting that both horses are trained by the same guy (and Bodemeister desperately needs graded earnings in order to make the Derby), so i would imagine they'll try to avoid compromising each other's chances.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out on the track. I suspect Bodemeister will go to the lead, and Secret Circle will take back just a bit.