2012 Kentucky Derby plays
jaanis
Junior Member
If you plan on playing the Kentucky Derby this year expect to get paid. I am projecting the favorite (more than likely Bodemeister/Union Rags) at post time to be no less than 4-1. Rain could be a factor (seems like it is every year) affecting track conditions. There is a ton of speed in this years race so look for someone rating or closing off the pace. The trouble is the same for these types of closing horses as the trip and early pace dictates if the horse even has a chance to win. I think it is perfect for this year for one of them to win.
1. DADDY LONG LEGS; Colm O'Donoghue; Aidan O'Brien
Finished a terrible 12th in last years Breeders Cup juvenile, which has proven out to be one of the best Juvenile races of all-time. Ships to Dubai to run on the Meydan course and finishes first for its only race and win of 2012. Now ships to Kentucky for the Derby. My personal belief is I never play a horse shipping from Europe/Dubai/Japan/Wherever without and prep races in the States before the Derby. And with the 1 post I am completely throwing out
2. OPTIMIZER; Jon Court; D.Wayne Lukas
Just got in with enough earnings, but no wins on the year I am not touching this horse. Last win was in 2011 in a Maiden Special Weight race. Too bad as I love Court on longshots when riding anywhere in Kentucky.
3. TAKE CHARGE INDY; Calvin Borel; Patrick Byrne
This horse will take money for sure on Saturday. Just Borel on him is enough to cut the morning line odds of 15-1 down to 7-1. The horse has raced with the best of them in this field and should be a factor to finish 4th.
4. UNION RAGS; Michael Matz; Julien Leparoux
Could be your post time co-favorite with Bodemeister. This was one of the most anticipated 2-year olds in the Juvenile last year. He was even money and made tried his hardest to get by speedball Hansen. Couldnt. Similar things happened in the Florida Derby. I want to like this horse, but I cant right now.
5. DULLAHAN; Kent Desormeaux; Dale Romans
Will be one of the horses coming from way back in the stretch. That could suit him well if the speed scenario develops as I am guessing it will. Closed and beat Hansen in the Toyota Blue Grass, but Hansen is another one of those speed horses. Not sure on how much he likes dirt, but we will learning Saturday. Will try for 1st as I am sucker for closers, but this year it makes sense.
6. BODEMEISTER; Mike Smith; Bob Baffert
Won by 9.5 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. Yes I said 9.5 lengths! Like stated above will more than likely be the post time favorite among this bunch. I hate playing any sort of chalk in derby no matter how high or low you get it at. Never seems tor materialize into a horse wearing the roses. That being said Smith/Bafferrt is a deadly combo and this horse should be ready come Saturday maybe too ready if that is possible. He never raced as a 2-year old and guess when the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby that did that? 1882, yikes. So not racing as a 2-year old and having raced 4 times in 2012 already might be too much with other more seasoned horses. This horse will be a factor later this year and even more so when he is 4-years old. Not in the top 8 for me.
7. ROUSING SERMON; Jose Lezcano; Jerry Hollendorfer
Another horse with no wins in 2012, but ran on late for a nice 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. This is another closing type horse which will need a lot to go his way. I just feel this one will be too far out of it to make a closing kick like others in this race. Tossing out.
8. CREATIVE CAUSE; Joel Rosario; Mike Harrington
Seems to be a wise-guy horse that a lot will be using come Saturday. Seems to be right there ready to pounce at the quarter pole which is a great pace to be for the KD. For me I personally dont like California horses. Even with Santa Anita back using dirt, I never see California horses consistently preforming well in the Derby. This is a hard decision on this one. Will use in bottom levels of exotics, but not in the top 4.
9. TRINNIBERG; Willie Martinez; Bisnath Parboo
This horse might be ahead by 10 lengths by the end of the first quarter. Total speedball that will not be able to help himself. Will fish last in the KD. Easiest throw out of all 20.
10. DADDY NOSE BEST; Garret Gomez; Steve Asmussen
Julian has rode the horse the last 8 times, but jumps ship to ride Union Rag. Wow its last two races narrowly
11. ALPHA; Rajiv Maragh; Kiaran McLaughlin
Had traffic issues in the Wood memorial finishing second to Gemologist. Son of Bernadini, granddaddy of A.P. Indy so that bloodline is solid. Sheikh from Godolphin Stables has never won the Derby. Dont think he gets it done this year. Depending on how the horse looks on the track might throw in a few exotics if the price is right.
12. PROSPECTIVE; Luis Contreras; Mark Casse
If this horse does anything it will be far too close to the lead to sustain any drive in the end. Dont think this horse can hang at all with these big boys. Instant toss for me.
13. WENT THE DAY WELL; John Velazquez; Graham Motion
Same connections as last years Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Graham Motion is taking Went the Day Well on the same path he did last year Animal Kingdom. Winning the Vinery at Turfway and directly to the Derby. I have some questions on class even with that big win by 3.5 length last time out. Will use in exotics and place 3rd.
14. HANSEN; Ramon Dominguez; Mike Maker
Speed, speed, speed, speed. With so much of it in the race how can you bet any of them? Surely the early fractions are going to be vicious with Trinniberg, Bodemeister and others. Dont think Hansen is ready for this longer distance. When you see this ghost white horse on the track it is going to impress the $1 bettors for sure. Dont be fooled and stay away on Saturday.
15. GEMOLOGIST; Javier Castellano; Todd Pletcher
Only undefeated horse in the race .only good horse he beat was Alpha. Looking at the times in that race show it wasnt a very good win. People will be betting this horse because in the PPs they see five 1s. Look elsewhere.
16. EL PADRINO; Rafael Bejarno; Todd Pletcher
Everyone loved this horse and then had a pretty weak Florida Derby. Losing to Take Charge Indy and Union Rags. I feel this horse is going to be able to get a good spot and stay close to the pace, but not be wasted on it. Look for this horse down the stretch at a very nice price. Will be playing 2nd.
17. DONE TALKING; Sheldon Russell; Hamilton Smith
Man if a name can save me time handicapping this race it is this one. Nothing to talk about here. Mute this horse.
18. SABERCAT; Corey Nakatani; Steve Asmussen
These outside posts really are terrible in the Derby. Especially when you have zero speed to get out to the lead. Dont let this cat in the house.
19. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER; Mario Gutierrez; Doug O'Neill
You know how I feel about California horses right? Nothing to see here, go have another before the race even starts.
20. LIAISON; Martin Garcia; Bob Baffert
20 hole? The only thing this horse will win is a maybe a free beer from one of the fans only about 10 feet away from the gate. No thanks.
In the end the best horses in this years Derby have the best post position possibly. All though no one horse steps up a clear easy bet, I would focus betting on post positions 3-16 only. So that knocks out 6 horses right off the bat that hove absolutely no chance of winning. My bets below:
WPS: #5
Ex Box: 5-16-13-3
Trifecta box: 5-16-13-3
1. DADDY LONG LEGS; Colm O'Donoghue; Aidan O'Brien
Finished a terrible 12th in last years Breeders Cup juvenile, which has proven out to be one of the best Juvenile races of all-time. Ships to Dubai to run on the Meydan course and finishes first for its only race and win of 2012. Now ships to Kentucky for the Derby. My personal belief is I never play a horse shipping from Europe/Dubai/Japan/Wherever without and prep races in the States before the Derby. And with the 1 post I am completely throwing out
2. OPTIMIZER; Jon Court; D.Wayne Lukas
Just got in with enough earnings, but no wins on the year I am not touching this horse. Last win was in 2011 in a Maiden Special Weight race. Too bad as I love Court on longshots when riding anywhere in Kentucky.
3. TAKE CHARGE INDY; Calvin Borel; Patrick Byrne
This horse will take money for sure on Saturday. Just Borel on him is enough to cut the morning line odds of 15-1 down to 7-1. The horse has raced with the best of them in this field and should be a factor to finish 4th.
4. UNION RAGS; Michael Matz; Julien Leparoux
Could be your post time co-favorite with Bodemeister. This was one of the most anticipated 2-year olds in the Juvenile last year. He was even money and made tried his hardest to get by speedball Hansen. Couldnt. Similar things happened in the Florida Derby. I want to like this horse, but I cant right now.
5. DULLAHAN; Kent Desormeaux; Dale Romans
Will be one of the horses coming from way back in the stretch. That could suit him well if the speed scenario develops as I am guessing it will. Closed and beat Hansen in the Toyota Blue Grass, but Hansen is another one of those speed horses. Not sure on how much he likes dirt, but we will learning Saturday. Will try for 1st as I am sucker for closers, but this year it makes sense.
6. BODEMEISTER; Mike Smith; Bob Baffert
Won by 9.5 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. Yes I said 9.5 lengths! Like stated above will more than likely be the post time favorite among this bunch. I hate playing any sort of chalk in derby no matter how high or low you get it at. Never seems tor materialize into a horse wearing the roses. That being said Smith/Bafferrt is a deadly combo and this horse should be ready come Saturday maybe too ready if that is possible. He never raced as a 2-year old and guess when the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby that did that? 1882, yikes. So not racing as a 2-year old and having raced 4 times in 2012 already might be too much with other more seasoned horses. This horse will be a factor later this year and even more so when he is 4-years old. Not in the top 8 for me.
7. ROUSING SERMON; Jose Lezcano; Jerry Hollendorfer
Another horse with no wins in 2012, but ran on late for a nice 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. This is another closing type horse which will need a lot to go his way. I just feel this one will be too far out of it to make a closing kick like others in this race. Tossing out.
8. CREATIVE CAUSE; Joel Rosario; Mike Harrington
Seems to be a wise-guy horse that a lot will be using come Saturday. Seems to be right there ready to pounce at the quarter pole which is a great pace to be for the KD. For me I personally dont like California horses. Even with Santa Anita back using dirt, I never see California horses consistently preforming well in the Derby. This is a hard decision on this one. Will use in bottom levels of exotics, but not in the top 4.
9. TRINNIBERG; Willie Martinez; Bisnath Parboo
This horse might be ahead by 10 lengths by the end of the first quarter. Total speedball that will not be able to help himself. Will fish last in the KD. Easiest throw out of all 20.
10. DADDY NOSE BEST; Garret Gomez; Steve Asmussen
Julian has rode the horse the last 8 times, but jumps ship to ride Union Rag. Wow its last two races narrowly
11. ALPHA; Rajiv Maragh; Kiaran McLaughlin
Had traffic issues in the Wood memorial finishing second to Gemologist. Son of Bernadini, granddaddy of A.P. Indy so that bloodline is solid. Sheikh from Godolphin Stables has never won the Derby. Dont think he gets it done this year. Depending on how the horse looks on the track might throw in a few exotics if the price is right.
12. PROSPECTIVE; Luis Contreras; Mark Casse
If this horse does anything it will be far too close to the lead to sustain any drive in the end. Dont think this horse can hang at all with these big boys. Instant toss for me.
13. WENT THE DAY WELL; John Velazquez; Graham Motion
Same connections as last years Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Graham Motion is taking Went the Day Well on the same path he did last year Animal Kingdom. Winning the Vinery at Turfway and directly to the Derby. I have some questions on class even with that big win by 3.5 length last time out. Will use in exotics and place 3rd.
14. HANSEN; Ramon Dominguez; Mike Maker
Speed, speed, speed, speed. With so much of it in the race how can you bet any of them? Surely the early fractions are going to be vicious with Trinniberg, Bodemeister and others. Dont think Hansen is ready for this longer distance. When you see this ghost white horse on the track it is going to impress the $1 bettors for sure. Dont be fooled and stay away on Saturday.
15. GEMOLOGIST; Javier Castellano; Todd Pletcher
Only undefeated horse in the race .only good horse he beat was Alpha. Looking at the times in that race show it wasnt a very good win. People will be betting this horse because in the PPs they see five 1s. Look elsewhere.
16. EL PADRINO; Rafael Bejarno; Todd Pletcher
Everyone loved this horse and then had a pretty weak Florida Derby. Losing to Take Charge Indy and Union Rags. I feel this horse is going to be able to get a good spot and stay close to the pace, but not be wasted on it. Look for this horse down the stretch at a very nice price. Will be playing 2nd.
17. DONE TALKING; Sheldon Russell; Hamilton Smith
Man if a name can save me time handicapping this race it is this one. Nothing to talk about here. Mute this horse.
18. SABERCAT; Corey Nakatani; Steve Asmussen
These outside posts really are terrible in the Derby. Especially when you have zero speed to get out to the lead. Dont let this cat in the house.
19. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER; Mario Gutierrez; Doug O'Neill
You know how I feel about California horses right? Nothing to see here, go have another before the race even starts.
20. LIAISON; Martin Garcia; Bob Baffert
20 hole? The only thing this horse will win is a maybe a free beer from one of the fans only about 10 feet away from the gate. No thanks.
In the end the best horses in this years Derby have the best post position possibly. All though no one horse steps up a clear easy bet, I would focus betting on post positions 3-16 only. So that knocks out 6 horses right off the bat that hove absolutely no chance of winning. My bets below:
WPS: #5
Ex Box: 5-16-13-3
Trifecta box: 5-16-13-3