Tired of UR talk
BMB109
Member
The Belmont got a 96. A classic Union Rags beyer. Yet all we continue to get are headlines about him. I hope baffert brings bodemeister out east to face him and end this ridiculous discussion that if he can win the Haskell. Travers, and beat older horses he might beat IHA for year end honors. UR can't beat and group of older allowance runners at 1 1/8 miles in most cases.
Can anyone offer a reason why the journalists are so enamored with this horse? Is it really an east coast thing? I mean I'm east coast all my life but this horse is not that good and Cali has us beat this year.
Anyone?
Can anyone offer a reason why the journalists are so enamored with this horse? Is it really an east coast thing? I mean I'm east coast all my life but this horse is not that good and Cali has us beat this year.
Anyone?
Comments
I'm not sure where you get the idea that 96 is a "classic Union Rags" beyer. Here are every beyer rating he's ever put up before the Belmont: 97,94,110,104,98,98. How does that make 96 a "classic" beyer for him?
I think I like Bodemeister, as well, though. I think even if someone entered a rabbit to tire Bodemeister, he has shown he can beat a good field, including Union Rags.
Union Rags has never run a truly bad race. His worst performance was in the Derby, where his lumbering style and slobbishness as a racehorse worked against him. As it was, he still made a belated, honest run for 7th. He then came back and did all he could on Belmont Day, which is to say he won the dang race. All the horse has done is run hard wherever he is spotted.
As to the question of his place among the three year old hierarchy, I will probably bet against him next time out because he still hasn't improved as a three year old.
But it's tiresome how often I see people bashing this good race horse.
Well said!!!! But I don't see him winning HOY this year.
FB?....his 2 top beyers were a 95 is the Saratoga Special and a 95 in the Fountain of Youth. Now he received a new top of 96....
Broke his maiden with a 66, next earned a 95 in the special,
92 in the champagne, 94 in the Juvi (where he couldn't run down a drunken tired Hanson), then the Fountain got back to a 95, then the much todo about nothing trip in the Fla Derby he got a 93 ( he got clear with plenty of time to run down those 2 horses and couldn't), then he got a 90 in the K Derby which he was never going to win with a dream trip or not. The belmont is a new top dude. Where in gods name do you think he ever broke 100 let alone get a 110?
To be honest of the journalist gave a realistic assessment of this horse such as you just did so many people probably wouldn't bash him. Reality is he is always the headline win or lose and Matz whining. There is this underlying impression that because Matz had BArbaro he must be a genius.
I admit I do not think he's a good horse. Sure he won the Belmont but the horse I foolishly chose with 4 lifetime starts might have beat him with a little better race riding there at the end. Given its a weak crop but youre not going to win too many G1s running that slow.
I hear you though.
I copied that out of the PPS I downloaded from equibase before the Belmont Stakes.
Sorry, I was logged in with the wrong handle.
@dirtyshirt: Why so tense? I don't mean to "hate" on anyone. Hope no one took my post that way before.
It is a good point, though, to say that the speed ratings are not that important in handicapping. The problem is that the baseline to get to 100 is different at every different track, so the speed ratings of horses from different tracks might not give a good comparison. I personally only use them to eliminate horses that have no realistic chance of winning.
lol i'm not hating on UR i love Horses i feel the the media expect alot of him and he hasn't been performing to his expectation
like i said 2me he's a regular horse, i think Bodemeister is better than UR...
UR has to earn his due, and the media should just let him be a horse and stop Hyping the horse racing industry about stuff they don't know...... :bye:
I know he hasn't broken a 100+ beyer, he might be using equibase or bris #'s. But still he really hasn't taken a huge step backwards off the numbers I use. I agree he hasn't moved forward since his two year old campaign. But lets wait and see what happens to his speed numbers once he gets back to races 8f and up. You really cannot put much in this 1 1/2 race as he will never run that distance again. Right now Bodemeister is the best 3yo out there sice IHA is gone to the shed. Bodemeister ran two great races and his numbers previous to those races show he is going to be the horse to contend with this summer and going forward. Let's just hope Bodemeister can stay sound or doesn't get ill.
fb
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As for Paynter, I happen to think he has a great future if the Belmont didn't ruin him. I also think he is better suited than Bodemeister to get 10 furlongs. Anyway, it should be a great summer of racing. I always find these three year olds are a big easier to wager on after the Derby, as I historically have a horrible ROI in derby prep season, but I heat up as the Summer goes along.
Anyway, I appreciate Rags' honesty and like the fact that he finally was able to show a little heart and win a close race. Definitely not the strongest Belmont ever though, and Rags is a good horse to take a shot against in horizontal wagers on a day in the near future, perhaps at Saratoga. He's a grinder who will have a hard time beating good horses at 9f because of his lack of athleticism.
Angry and gambler is not often a good combo. I love Pat Day though....lmao
I think you just showed us one.
Joking FB.
Now this is a great point on why UR is a play against, I happen to agree with most of it in fact. It is the horses obvious lack of athleticism that makes it hard for him to win at times. That being said I still love the horse because he is as honest as they come and shows up every time. Keep some rationale to your arguments and keep Beyers in the garbage where they belong.
BTW Pat Day blows, always has and always will. See what I mean?
Well maybe I hate UR like you hate Pat Day.....lol....sorry you hate Andy Beyer. I find them a useful tool like most and that's what they are....a piece of information. Like them or not they offer fine comparative standards.
I stand by my argument. UR is running too slow to win most G1s. Whether its beyers, ragozin, equibase, doesn't matter period. Of course he's a good bet against next out!
Fine he's an honest horse .....honest and slow and I'm freakin tired of fucking headlines and IH8PatDay mindset. To think matz would publicly state he thought UR would win the triple crown is ridiculous. Maybe you were drinking the same koolaid h8ter I dunno....but so much hate is not healthy.
To make a statement about a horse without regards to a particular race can end up being expensive (hope that's clear). For example, look at Bodemeister. Everyone seems to love him, right? Well, he was the lone speed in the Preakness, but he got beat by a presser. He should have had a huge advantage, and all markers pointed to him winning gate to wire. But he didn't. So next time out, if there are one or two good pressers in his race with him, or if there is another speed horse and a presser with him, do you bet him because you "love" him, or do bet against him? I would sit that race out, myself.
What about Dullahan? He's a great closer, but the only mention of him here has been hate. Well, I had picked Dullahan to win the Belmont, myself. when I first saw the race, I thought the distance must have been too much for him. Well, after watching the replay, I saw what really happened. When he got to the final turn and was about to make his move on the stretch, a horse moved in front of him, blocking him. Well, I'm of the opinion that if Calvin Borel had been riding him, he would have cut inside that horse and made the move. That's not what happened. He slowed drastically to avoid hitting that other horse. That cost him the race. I am convinced had he not been blocked, he would have finished 1st or 2nd in the race. If the field is similar to Belmont in his next race, I will not hesitate to bet him on the nose.
If you want to rant about this horse or that horse, and make decisions about their future without regards to the conditions in each race, then you're going to lose a lot of money at the track. I believe that is the point that dirtyshirt was trying to make earlier.
I get all your points but don't necessarily agree 100%. I do think you can make a statement with regards to a horse compared to a group of horses. Such as UR and this crop....and UR vs most any older graded group. Yeah I get your point on conditions, competition, and how the race mught play out.... but if a horse is too slow he is too slow....or as SIrBear put it best he lacks athleticism. On the other hand Dullahan left his race on the track when he worked 45 and change. Plus...the race set up to be plodding which took him out of his game....fast work or not, But I truly never want to see a dead closer work a blistering 1/2 like that.
I hope you too understand that ignoring pure talent or lack thereof is just as dangerous a game. I;m not talking being at the track and getting action on every race on the card. I'm talking top ranked animals in graded stakes not a maiden claimer who won off by 10 lengths in the slop is coming back in a NX1 allowance race and ends up chalk.
Back to UR yes...put him in the right conditions, against the right group, and sure he can win. But they won't be ducking anybody...they thought he was going to win the triple crown for goodness-sake..they clearly think he's the 2nd coming and if they follow through with their ill-conceived logic he may very well not win another race this year and then they retire him. I fully appreciate he may blossom during the summer and if he does I'll give him his due. As of now he has run the same races last year and this year....no improvement.
Every trainers strength or weakness and their standings is a direct result of knowing where to place their horses. Matz has a 14% win rate for the year. I think Baffert is clicking over 30%. Is he a better trainer?..maybe maybe not...but he definitely places his horses where they can win. Matz thinks UR should have won the triple crown...where do you think he'll be placing him?
And of course no you don't ever bet a horse because you love him or against him because you hate him. Thats not what this is about. Its about over hyping a horse of average talent and we can all be fans or not and still understand handicapping objectively.
As for Bodemeister I disagree, 1st I have never bet on him but boy do I admire him now. He's lightly raced and has run several huge races already. His high cruising speed will be difficult to deal with at 9F. Out sprinting Trinniberg in the Derby shocked me and he was still around at the end impressed me.
I really don't hate any horse either. I do not fault UR for anything....again its the hype that gets to me and made me want to have this open discussion....well of course then there's h8ter in a league of his own. I think its been an interesting and good discussion so far.....
We'll agree to disagree on beyers. Sure for a beginner maybe they think the highest beyer should win the race. For an experienced handicapper you look how they won it, type of surface, can you eliminate some, etc....I use them comparatively not absolutely. It funny I could open the same thread about speed figs and we'd have a similar discussion
As for Easy Goer
Anyway I love the discussion and enjoy the back and forth, so I look forward to disagreeing with you in the future, LOL!! peace , brother.:drinking: