Great Strategy for Daily Doubles and Exactas
jjohns7777
Senior Member
For this to work, you have to be able to spot a "mortal lock."
I've been reading a Steven Crist book on exotic bets and I've come across a strategy of his that I think is pretty awesome. This strategy would work well in a Daily Double or in an exacta. The idea is to bet the first horse in separate bets with each of the other contenders, but weighting your bets based on the odds of the second horse, so that the payout would be the same regardless of which second horse comes in.
Here's how it would have worked for me yesterday, if I had used it:
I downloaded the card for Woodbine just to work on my handicapping skills; not expecting to bet, but I found that the #3 horse in the 9th race looked like a mortal lock, so I did end up placing a win bet. Here's what I should have done:
There were four other horses I considered contenders in the race (2, 4, 8, and 9), so I could have bet exactas on each, with the #3 horse winning, like this:
Horse Morning line Odds Amt of Bet
2 20/1 $2.00
4 2.5/1 $16.00
8 4/1 $10.00
9 6/1 $7.00
The total amount I would have bet on the four exactas: $35.00
The final result of the race was 3-4. A $2.00 exacta would have paid $51.60, so my $16.00 exacta would have paid $412.80.
The same $35.00 placed on #3 to win would have paid $84.00
If I had eliminated the long shot (#2), then the bet could have been much smaller:
Horse Morning line Odds Amt of Bet
4 2.5/1 $4.00
8 4/1 $3.00
9 6/1 $2.00
The total amount I would have to bet on the three exactas: $9.00
My $4.00 bet on 3-4 would have paid: $103.20
Has anyone else seen this strategy before and used it effectively?
I do see a couple of flaws here, though. First, it would be better if I had the actual racetime odds, but I'll be using this online, much earlier than racetime, so I'll only have the morning line numbers. It would also be better to have exacta odds, rather than rely on morning line win odds. But I think this will work, despite these flaws.
I've been reading a Steven Crist book on exotic bets and I've come across a strategy of his that I think is pretty awesome. This strategy would work well in a Daily Double or in an exacta. The idea is to bet the first horse in separate bets with each of the other contenders, but weighting your bets based on the odds of the second horse, so that the payout would be the same regardless of which second horse comes in.
Here's how it would have worked for me yesterday, if I had used it:
I downloaded the card for Woodbine just to work on my handicapping skills; not expecting to bet, but I found that the #3 horse in the 9th race looked like a mortal lock, so I did end up placing a win bet. Here's what I should have done:
There were four other horses I considered contenders in the race (2, 4, 8, and 9), so I could have bet exactas on each, with the #3 horse winning, like this:
Horse Morning line Odds Amt of Bet
2 20/1 $2.00
4 2.5/1 $16.00
8 4/1 $10.00
9 6/1 $7.00
The total amount I would have bet on the four exactas: $35.00
The final result of the race was 3-4. A $2.00 exacta would have paid $51.60, so my $16.00 exacta would have paid $412.80.
The same $35.00 placed on #3 to win would have paid $84.00
If I had eliminated the long shot (#2), then the bet could have been much smaller:
Horse Morning line Odds Amt of Bet
4 2.5/1 $4.00
8 4/1 $3.00
9 6/1 $2.00
The total amount I would have to bet on the three exactas: $9.00
My $4.00 bet on 3-4 would have paid: $103.20
Has anyone else seen this strategy before and used it effectively?
I do see a couple of flaws here, though. First, it would be better if I had the actual racetime odds, but I'll be using this online, much earlier than racetime, so I'll only have the morning line numbers. It would also be better to have exacta odds, rather than rely on morning line win odds. But I think this will work, despite these flaws.
Comments
yup those word sound like Up_Selling :basketball:
strategies are great but how often they work! :shifty:
it depend on who ever is handicapping and what value they see....
once you have your Value Odd pick hit the all button and your exactor will paid.
the same with the DD, all next race and your paid.
easy to say,easy to do, just have to find the Value Odd pick. :yes:
The strategy did look interesting, though.
I'm not sure what you mean here, but I'm definately not trying to sell anything.
i was talking about the book. Mortal Lock is used to sell picks/books :shrr: