Jim Dandy Breakdown
fbwinners
Senior Member
Here is what I have on the following horses for today's running of the Jim Dandy.
1 - Alpha - This colt is much better than his last effort as he all but blew his chances that day right after the break. Toss that race and with the time off and his works leading up to this race he looks awesome. This is a prep for the Travers where these connections want that race in a bad way. I can see him running huge off the bench and he already owns a win over this strip and his works suggest nothing has changed to him liking this track. Win Contender
2 - Fast Falcon - Improving sort that has run back to back big races to no avail against the Dog. The Dwyer was run at a very fast pace and he still couldn't get past the Dog that day and I don't see it today as well. Pass
3 - Atigun - Well you all know this was my Belmont selection at 20-1 and with a better timed move might of won that day or at least finished second. I can see another big run from this colt today as he has had time off to come back from that race and just look at his last work over this track. Sheding 9lb, shorting up, and coming into this one off a best of 33 over this strip are all good signs. Win Contender
4 - Neck N Neck - This colt is really coming into his own after a very slow start at learning how to run. This colt has been very difficult to train in his early stages of his career. I was told about this one early on from a Calvin Borail connection. Calvin thought his was going to be his derby horse last year and was one of the reasons he went down to the Stream last year. Look at his past two races if he could of gotten to the Derby he might of made a case as it looks to me he is a Churhcill Downs horse in a big way. I will take a pass to see if can duplicate his runs over a different surface as his 3 wins have came over that surface.
5 - My Adonis - He will be a big pace factor in this race today and I just don't think he is fast enough to compete with these type runners. Won't get long winded over this colt. Pass
6 - Teeth of the Dog - M. Matz has done a tremendous job with this colt. He has only finished off the board in one start and that was The Preakness. His last race in The Dwyer was the most impressive as he was dogged the entire time and fought two rivals off to hold on gamely over Fast Falcon that should of ran by him with those early type fractions. I see a big bounce today from this colt off two big wins and it looks as Joel fits this one to a tee!!!!!! Pass
7 - Liaison - Bob Baffert has this colt rounding back into his 2 you form. His last few works and races show a colt on the improve. He has been working heads up and better over some of Bafferts big guns!!!!!! His last two races his has improved and was against the top level horses in Cali. One thing to note in here is that Baffert is letting Martin Garcia back on one of his runners since there little beef. I think the reason that Bafferts ships across country with this colt was his last work. He was working with Paynter and on July 23rd Paynter couldn't reel him in during the work and his gallop out was AWESOME. He is set for a big run today with Garcia in the saddle. Win Contender
8 - Prospective - Well look who takes the mount on this colt (JR). He was of the best working and looking colts over the Triple Crown races. His works at CH was awesome and his coat and flesh where always the best on the grounds. One thing you can say is you don't win races off looks and works as he never lived up to those impressions of a top notch colt. He has won back to back races against lesser, also owns 6 wins with 3 on the dirt and 3 over the sticky stuff so he isn't a certain type surface horse. He is the wildcard in this race and could be the tote buster for the exotics. Johnny is on for a reason!!!!!!!
The way I will play it!!!!
#7 - Liaison - Win / Place
Exacta Box
1-3-7
Tri and Super Key
7 over 1-3-6-8 over 1-2-3-4-6-8 over all / Reverse in 2nd hole as well.
1 - Alpha - This colt is much better than his last effort as he all but blew his chances that day right after the break. Toss that race and with the time off and his works leading up to this race he looks awesome. This is a prep for the Travers where these connections want that race in a bad way. I can see him running huge off the bench and he already owns a win over this strip and his works suggest nothing has changed to him liking this track. Win Contender
2 - Fast Falcon - Improving sort that has run back to back big races to no avail against the Dog. The Dwyer was run at a very fast pace and he still couldn't get past the Dog that day and I don't see it today as well. Pass
3 - Atigun - Well you all know this was my Belmont selection at 20-1 and with a better timed move might of won that day or at least finished second. I can see another big run from this colt today as he has had time off to come back from that race and just look at his last work over this track. Sheding 9lb, shorting up, and coming into this one off a best of 33 over this strip are all good signs. Win Contender
4 - Neck N Neck - This colt is really coming into his own after a very slow start at learning how to run. This colt has been very difficult to train in his early stages of his career. I was told about this one early on from a Calvin Borail connection. Calvin thought his was going to be his derby horse last year and was one of the reasons he went down to the Stream last year. Look at his past two races if he could of gotten to the Derby he might of made a case as it looks to me he is a Churhcill Downs horse in a big way. I will take a pass to see if can duplicate his runs over a different surface as his 3 wins have came over that surface.
5 - My Adonis - He will be a big pace factor in this race today and I just don't think he is fast enough to compete with these type runners. Won't get long winded over this colt. Pass
6 - Teeth of the Dog - M. Matz has done a tremendous job with this colt. He has only finished off the board in one start and that was The Preakness. His last race in The Dwyer was the most impressive as he was dogged the entire time and fought two rivals off to hold on gamely over Fast Falcon that should of ran by him with those early type fractions. I see a big bounce today from this colt off two big wins and it looks as Joel fits this one to a tee!!!!!! Pass
7 - Liaison - Bob Baffert has this colt rounding back into his 2 you form. His last few works and races show a colt on the improve. He has been working heads up and better over some of Bafferts big guns!!!!!! His last two races his has improved and was against the top level horses in Cali. One thing to note in here is that Baffert is letting Martin Garcia back on one of his runners since there little beef. I think the reason that Bafferts ships across country with this colt was his last work. He was working with Paynter and on July 23rd Paynter couldn't reel him in during the work and his gallop out was AWESOME. He is set for a big run today with Garcia in the saddle. Win Contender
8 - Prospective - Well look who takes the mount on this colt (JR). He was of the best working and looking colts over the Triple Crown races. His works at CH was awesome and his coat and flesh where always the best on the grounds. One thing you can say is you don't win races off looks and works as he never lived up to those impressions of a top notch colt. He has won back to back races against lesser, also owns 6 wins with 3 on the dirt and 3 over the sticky stuff so he isn't a certain type surface horse. He is the wildcard in this race and could be the tote buster for the exotics. Johnny is on for a reason!!!!!!!
The way I will play it!!!!
#7 - Liaison - Win / Place
Exacta Box
1-3-7
Tri and Super Key
7 over 1-3-6-8 over 1-2-3-4-6-8 over all / Reverse in 2nd hole as well.
Comments
Yup tell me about it now I have to hope for 2-1 in the Travers on this horse. Looking at him on top with Street Life under him in everything. 4 more weeks to go!