Saratoga play from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Saratoga - Race 3
#3 Show Some Magic (2/1 ml)
Think we have a good play here, one way or another. First off, this Asmussen trainee is coming off a much better-than-looked (even though it looks pretty good) effort on opening weekend, a very strong maiden race that looks as if it might produce several next-out winners. A little background first though. This guy had previously run a sharp second @ Churchill behind Circle Unbroken, who is now 2-for-2 after coming back to win the Bashford Manor Stakes next time out. As a result of that, he looked pretty damn strong heading into the afore-mentioned Saratoga race last out, and deservedly went favored over a strong-looking group that included our choice Well Lawyered (3rd), and Exploring (4th), who if memory serves had worked the fastest furlong at one of the under-tack shows for the OBS or Fasig-Tipton (i think OBS). Predictably, Exploring set a fast pace up-front, stalked closely in second by Spurious Precision, who has since some back to win the Sanford Stakes. Right behind those two however was Show Some Magic, who was showing a great deal of resourcefulness and moxy to stick that close so early after having stumbled badly at the break (almost going to his knees), then getting bumped hard from the inside on his way up. Show Some Magic then stuck to his task all the way to the wire, outfinishing both Exploring and Well Lawyered for second in fast time, once again behind a horse who came back to win a graded stakes next time out (first Circle Unbroken and then Spurious Precision). This horse is extremely unlucky to still be a maiden, and if that weren't all, he has since come back to work a heads-up bullet with the older stakes horse (Breeders Cup winner, in fact) Regally Ready, who went off @ 3/1 yesterday in a tough turf-sprint stakes won by Bridgetown. Obviously Asmussen thinks very highly of this 2yo, and with good reason. Also obvious he won't be a secret here, however, i am encouraged by the presence of the Pletcher trainee Lincoln Law, who is listed @ 3/1 ml while coming off a bullet gate drill and figures to take a lot of action here. That being said, i am showing absolutely nothing of note on Lincoln Law, as he worked in 10.3 at the March Barrett's sale (very rare for a Pletcher to be coming out of that sale, btw), a full 4 ticks off the show's best (nearly a full second, at just one furlong mind you). Further, he's coming into this race off 4 straight heads-up drills with 4 different horses (also rare for Pletcher, at least with his good ones), none of whom have raced a single time (and one of them is a 3yo). As such, i feel that Lincoln Law will be WAY overbet in this race, as might Will Take Charge, a Lukas trainee who will draw some attention based on the fact that he's a son of the mulitple Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady (making him a half-brother to Take Charge Indy, btw). That one has been worked recently with 3 different Lukas horses who have all raced already, with none of them showing much abilty. Plus Lukas almost never wins with firsters these days.
That brings us to the second part of this play, which is my honorable mention horse #7 Gombey Dancer (6/1 ml). This is a very interesting firster for the highly capable debut trainer Eddie Kenneally. Back on July 21, he worked heads-up with Liquid Lunch, who came out of that drill to take a surprising amount of action (especially early) when running second behind our pick Corail, pressing that one's early pace to upper stretch and briefly appearing a threat in the lane before veering inward pretty badly, remaining well-clear for second. Subsequent to that, Gombey Dancer then came back to work heads-up from the gate with Majestic Hussar on Aug 4, and Majestic Hussar came out of that drill to win by 6 lengths last week (albeit in the mud). Looks as if Gombey Dancer may indeed be the main threat to Show Some Magic here, and should offer excellent value in the exacta while the public jumps all over the Pletcher horse. Btw, i also looked (obviously) at the Terranova trainee Takajo, who brought $300k @ Fasig-Tipton, but that one actually worked in 10.2 at the sale, 2 ticks off the show's best. He has interestingly worked 4 straight times (at least) with an unraced barnmate, so we may have something there later if Takajo runs well today.
So, in summation, i like Show Some Magic a great deal here, and hoping he's playable thanks to the Pletcher (annd hopefully the Lukas) being overbet. Failing that (and regardless of that), i also plan to bet a Show Some Magic/Gombey Dancer exacta box. Sorry for the long writeup, but there was a lot to cover here.
#3 Show Some Magic (2/1 ml)
Think we have a good play here, one way or another. First off, this Asmussen trainee is coming off a much better-than-looked (even though it looks pretty good) effort on opening weekend, a very strong maiden race that looks as if it might produce several next-out winners. A little background first though. This guy had previously run a sharp second @ Churchill behind Circle Unbroken, who is now 2-for-2 after coming back to win the Bashford Manor Stakes next time out. As a result of that, he looked pretty damn strong heading into the afore-mentioned Saratoga race last out, and deservedly went favored over a strong-looking group that included our choice Well Lawyered (3rd), and Exploring (4th), who if memory serves had worked the fastest furlong at one of the under-tack shows for the OBS or Fasig-Tipton (i think OBS). Predictably, Exploring set a fast pace up-front, stalked closely in second by Spurious Precision, who has since some back to win the Sanford Stakes. Right behind those two however was Show Some Magic, who was showing a great deal of resourcefulness and moxy to stick that close so early after having stumbled badly at the break (almost going to his knees), then getting bumped hard from the inside on his way up. Show Some Magic then stuck to his task all the way to the wire, outfinishing both Exploring and Well Lawyered for second in fast time, once again behind a horse who came back to win a graded stakes next time out (first Circle Unbroken and then Spurious Precision). This horse is extremely unlucky to still be a maiden, and if that weren't all, he has since come back to work a heads-up bullet with the older stakes horse (Breeders Cup winner, in fact) Regally Ready, who went off @ 3/1 yesterday in a tough turf-sprint stakes won by Bridgetown. Obviously Asmussen thinks very highly of this 2yo, and with good reason. Also obvious he won't be a secret here, however, i am encouraged by the presence of the Pletcher trainee Lincoln Law, who is listed @ 3/1 ml while coming off a bullet gate drill and figures to take a lot of action here. That being said, i am showing absolutely nothing of note on Lincoln Law, as he worked in 10.3 at the March Barrett's sale (very rare for a Pletcher to be coming out of that sale, btw), a full 4 ticks off the show's best (nearly a full second, at just one furlong mind you). Further, he's coming into this race off 4 straight heads-up drills with 4 different horses (also rare for Pletcher, at least with his good ones), none of whom have raced a single time (and one of them is a 3yo). As such, i feel that Lincoln Law will be WAY overbet in this race, as might Will Take Charge, a Lukas trainee who will draw some attention based on the fact that he's a son of the mulitple Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady (making him a half-brother to Take Charge Indy, btw). That one has been worked recently with 3 different Lukas horses who have all raced already, with none of them showing much abilty. Plus Lukas almost never wins with firsters these days.
That brings us to the second part of this play, which is my honorable mention horse #7 Gombey Dancer (6/1 ml). This is a very interesting firster for the highly capable debut trainer Eddie Kenneally. Back on July 21, he worked heads-up with Liquid Lunch, who came out of that drill to take a surprising amount of action (especially early) when running second behind our pick Corail, pressing that one's early pace to upper stretch and briefly appearing a threat in the lane before veering inward pretty badly, remaining well-clear for second. Subsequent to that, Gombey Dancer then came back to work heads-up from the gate with Majestic Hussar on Aug 4, and Majestic Hussar came out of that drill to win by 6 lengths last week (albeit in the mud). Looks as if Gombey Dancer may indeed be the main threat to Show Some Magic here, and should offer excellent value in the exacta while the public jumps all over the Pletcher horse. Btw, i also looked (obviously) at the Terranova trainee Takajo, who brought $300k @ Fasig-Tipton, but that one actually worked in 10.2 at the sale, 2 ticks off the show's best. He has interestingly worked 4 straight times (at least) with an unraced barnmate, so we may have something there later if Takajo runs well today.
So, in summation, i like Show Some Magic a great deal here, and hoping he's playable thanks to the Pletcher (annd hopefully the Lukas) being overbet. Failing that (and regardless of that), i also plan to bet a Show Some Magic/Gombey Dancer exacta box. Sorry for the long writeup, but there was a lot to cover here.
Comments
$2 win bet pays $3.60
$2 exacta pays $23.20
:toast:
From the Top 4, the two horses that haven't run back yet are Well Lawyered and Exploring. I probably have more interest in Exploring. I thought he ran a little better than Well Lawyered (despite finishing 4th to Well Lawyered's 3rd), and Well Lawyered figures to be a shorter price next time out due to the Pletcher factor.
I also remember mentioning the Zito-trained son of Xtra Heat (who didn't run well in that race). Zito tends to improve greatly with second-time starters (and almost never wins with firsters), so that one might be worth a look back at a price. Hard to say.