Dr. Farr's DelMar Indications 8/22/12
dr. farr
Junior Member
Using the "Red Flag Analysis", here's what I have come up with for the 8/22 Del Mar card:
(note: I always base wagers as w-p-s, ie, across the board)
Race 1:
Confederate Recon (5 horse) comes out on top in the analysis; however the 3 horse, Old Man Lake, is close (my choice = Confederate Recon)
Race 2:
Close to the Edge is my choice (4 horse), although Half Dome Dude (7 horse) would be 2nd choice
Race 3:
For me, a toss-up between Tasty Treat and Lemon Hero; however red flag anaylsis gives a slight edge to the 4 horse, Tasty Treat, which is my choice
Race 4:
Very mixed results in the analysis; my chance bet would be on the 8 horse, His Royal Highness
Race 5:
The 2 horse, Toruk Makto, is the choice, on the speed # primarily
Race 6:
The 4 horse I think, makes the best wager-Always a Chance, which is my choice; in the analysis, though, the 8 horse Chimi Dee and the 9 horse Briteyednbushytail, are about even as a 2nd choice
Race 7:
I think the 5 horse, Maker or Breaker, should be the pick, but likely pay-off odds make me choose the 1 horse, Jaradella, as MY pick
Race 8:
Probably the 11 horse, Huntington Harbor, which I would go with UNLESS the eligible My Diane is actually in the race (in which case My Diane would be my choice)
(note: I always base wagers as w-p-s, ie, across the board)
Race 1:
Confederate Recon (5 horse) comes out on top in the analysis; however the 3 horse, Old Man Lake, is close (my choice = Confederate Recon)
Race 2:
Close to the Edge is my choice (4 horse), although Half Dome Dude (7 horse) would be 2nd choice
Race 3:
For me, a toss-up between Tasty Treat and Lemon Hero; however red flag anaylsis gives a slight edge to the 4 horse, Tasty Treat, which is my choice
Race 4:
Very mixed results in the analysis; my chance bet would be on the 8 horse, His Royal Highness
Race 5:
The 2 horse, Toruk Makto, is the choice, on the speed # primarily
Race 6:
The 4 horse I think, makes the best wager-Always a Chance, which is my choice; in the analysis, though, the 8 horse Chimi Dee and the 9 horse Briteyednbushytail, are about even as a 2nd choice
Race 7:
I think the 5 horse, Maker or Breaker, should be the pick, but likely pay-off odds make me choose the 1 horse, Jaradella, as MY pick
Race 8:
Probably the 11 horse, Huntington Harbor, which I would go with UNLESS the eligible My Diane is actually in the race (in which case My Diane would be my choice)
Comments
Race 2: choice did not finish in wps
Race 3: Tasty Treat won and paid well: 21.60+8.80+5.20
Race 4: choice did not finish in wps
Race 5: Toruk Makto placed
Race 6: Always a Chance showed
Race 7: Maker or Breaker placed, but my choice-Jaradella-showed
Race 8: ideal My Diane was scratched, so my choice Huntington Harbor, placed
Payoff on Tasty Treat gave me a net 7% return (on total $ wagered)-so, a rather mediocre outcome!