Santa Anita Sprint play from Discreet Picks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Santa Anita - Race 8
#7 Reneesgotzip (6/1 ml)
Always been a big fan of this exceptionally speedy filly, who ran into just a bit of distance difficulty in her two Grade 1 starts (both routes), before wisely being turned back into sprint distances with an eye towards the Breeders Cup. Looks like they may be testing the waters for an attempt at the BC Sprint (rather than the Filly & Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs), as she jumps into the deep water here, not only facing males for the first time, but also facing last year's BC Sprint winner (and current division leader) Amazombie. The thing is though, she looks every bit as fast as Amazombie, at least judging by their recent Del Mar starts, which came at the same distance with very similar track variants. Also worth noting here, Amazombie is simply prepping for his BC Sprint defense (while coming off a layoff), while Reneesgotzip's connections figure to be taking this race a bit more seriously. She's also absolutely the speed of the race, and should get loose early while forcing the boys to play catch-up. And this filly won't be easily caught at this 6-furlong distance, you can count on that. Further, she owns an impressive win over the Santa Anita dirt (her largest margin of victory, in fact), with today's rider Nakatani in the irons for that race. She also looked extremely sharp in both of her route tries over this surface; she just got a little tired late. So we know the surface switch will be no problem. Very tough spot for her today, obviously, but Amazombie will be overbet based on his reputation while almost assuredly not being 100% cranked for this race, and additionally, Reneesgotzip figures to be overlooked a bit here just based on the fact that she's a 3yo filly jumping up to face a very strong field of older males. Great value here on a very fast horse who has a legitimate shot at wiring the field today.
HRT record:
89 for 327 (27%)
$763.80 mutuels ($8.58 avg)
PS - Using her in ShowVivor as well....
#7 Reneesgotzip (6/1 ml)
Always been a big fan of this exceptionally speedy filly, who ran into just a bit of distance difficulty in her two Grade 1 starts (both routes), before wisely being turned back into sprint distances with an eye towards the Breeders Cup. Looks like they may be testing the waters for an attempt at the BC Sprint (rather than the Filly & Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs), as she jumps into the deep water here, not only facing males for the first time, but also facing last year's BC Sprint winner (and current division leader) Amazombie. The thing is though, she looks every bit as fast as Amazombie, at least judging by their recent Del Mar starts, which came at the same distance with very similar track variants. Also worth noting here, Amazombie is simply prepping for his BC Sprint defense (while coming off a layoff), while Reneesgotzip's connections figure to be taking this race a bit more seriously. She's also absolutely the speed of the race, and should get loose early while forcing the boys to play catch-up. And this filly won't be easily caught at this 6-furlong distance, you can count on that. Further, she owns an impressive win over the Santa Anita dirt (her largest margin of victory, in fact), with today's rider Nakatani in the irons for that race. She also looked extremely sharp in both of her route tries over this surface; she just got a little tired late. So we know the surface switch will be no problem. Very tough spot for her today, obviously, but Amazombie will be overbet based on his reputation while almost assuredly not being 100% cranked for this race, and additionally, Reneesgotzip figures to be overlooked a bit here just based on the fact that she's a 3yo filly jumping up to face a very strong field of older males. Great value here on a very fast horse who has a legitimate shot at wiring the field today.
HRT record:
89 for 327 (27%)
$763.80 mutuels ($8.58 avg)
PS - Using her in ShowVivor as well....
Comments
Don't do it. Please.
I assure you Amazombie is cranked, he still hasn't won a WIN AND YOU'RE IN. The connections want that, and the financial bonus (these guys aren't rich). My only worry about AMAZOMBIE is closing into this track profile.
The connections have already told me CASTLETOWN will be hell bent for the lead. Up and comer JIMMY CREED is gonna send too.
Look, I'll give you this - Renee is LEGIT FAST, and the track plays to that, but these are the the big boys.
Get my plate of crow ready just in case.
I got a bad ride, you got fucked by an owner who should have gone in the ALWN2X race, but wanted to ruin this one. Mike Smith rode Amazombie like he was Secretariat, he knows that MF'r needs a target.
19 second first quarter?
Here's the only upside I can find. When exchange wagering arrives, and we have info that somebody is hell bent on ruining a race, we can lay accordingly.
Yeah, did not look right. I see a lot of faders though on some of the longer priced horses. Bad racing strategy by the jockey?