Risen Star play for Saturday
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Fair Grounds - Race 10
#6 Palace Malice (8/1 ml)
Been looking forward to this race for several weeks now, and in fact have been following this horse pretty closely since he was a 2yo last summer. Debuted with a very sharp second in very fast time @ Belmont (missed by a half-length but note that it was almost 7 lenghths back to the rest of the field), then came back and ran big once again while breaking his maiden by open lengths @ Saratoga. To that point he was the most impressive 2yo i had seen all year, but unfortunately he bucked shins shortly before the Grade 1 Hopeful (where he likely would've been a strong favorite), so he had to skip the race and his connections decided to just put him on the shelf until next year (well aware of the potential he had as a 3yo, i'm sure). So fast-forward to Gulfstream early this year, where prior to his seasonal debut on Jan. 19 i noticed that he had been working heads-up @ Palm Meadows with none other than the unbeaten Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby (who incidently was using those drills to prepare for the Holy Bull Stakes). Doesn't get much better than that, right? So anyway, Palace Malice then went out and ran a good second in a 7-furlong allowance race, no real blemish at all considering that he was returning from a long layoff, certainly hadn't been cranked up for his best effort (which probably makes those heads-up drills with Shanghai Bobby look even better), and also happened to catch a sloppy track that day (the winner was Majestic Hussar, who had previously ran off to a big win over a sloppy track @ Saratoga). Plus the time of the race was quite good, and Palace Malice was only beaten a couple of lengths (note also that it was 8 lengths back to the rest of the field that day). Since that race, Palace Malice has been working heads-up with none other than Violence, who is unbeaten in 3 starts (including two graded stakes) and has been using those drills to prep for the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, where he has beebn installed as the 9/5 ml favorite. Meanwhile, our boy Palace Malice isn't getting anywhere near that kind of respect, practically being dismissed @ 8/1 in this race. Incidentally, i read earlier this week that the last 3 Risen Stars have been won by Florida shippers, and Palace Malice is one of only two horses in this race that fits that bill (the other being the 5/2 ml favorite Normandy Invasion). Also be aware that, unlike in his seasonal debut last month, Palace Malice definitely IS cranked up for his best effort today, as he attempts to rack up some some points in the new Derby qualifying system. Fully expecting a top effort here, and considering his race record, the horses he's been working with in the mornings, and the success of Florida-based horses in this race, Palace Malice is a steal at this kind of price. It also helps that there really isn't a lot of speed in the race, so Palace Malice (who has ample speed) shouldn't have much difficulty securing a good spot once they leave the gate in this very large 14-horse field. I'm guessing he'll let Oxbow cross over and try to move up on that one's outside, which would likely have him sitting second or third in the early going. The biggest problem i'm having is that the track is currently muddy (as i write this on Friday night), and more rain is expected tomorrow (though i think it's supposed to clear out as the day moves along). So i'm not sure what kind of racing surface to expect. As mentioned earlier though, Palace Malice encountered a sloppy track in his last start @ Gulfstream, and seemed to handle it fine, so i'm not sure how much of a concern a sloppy track would be here. Might even help him, since the track would likely be playing to speed (the track is sealed now and will obviously be sealed tomorrow as well), and he figures to be forwardly-placed. I would be more concerned about a slower, drying-out type of track, but of course this is nothing we can control. All-in-all, there is a whole lot to like here at this kind of price. A whole lot. Expecting a very good effort here, and i suspect he'll be joining the Derby conversation after this weekend. Go Palace Malice.
HRT record:
89 for 336 (26%)
$763.80 mutuels ($8.56 avg)
#6 Palace Malice (8/1 ml)
Been looking forward to this race for several weeks now, and in fact have been following this horse pretty closely since he was a 2yo last summer. Debuted with a very sharp second in very fast time @ Belmont (missed by a half-length but note that it was almost 7 lenghths back to the rest of the field), then came back and ran big once again while breaking his maiden by open lengths @ Saratoga. To that point he was the most impressive 2yo i had seen all year, but unfortunately he bucked shins shortly before the Grade 1 Hopeful (where he likely would've been a strong favorite), so he had to skip the race and his connections decided to just put him on the shelf until next year (well aware of the potential he had as a 3yo, i'm sure). So fast-forward to Gulfstream early this year, where prior to his seasonal debut on Jan. 19 i noticed that he had been working heads-up @ Palm Meadows with none other than the unbeaten Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby (who incidently was using those drills to prepare for the Holy Bull Stakes). Doesn't get much better than that, right? So anyway, Palace Malice then went out and ran a good second in a 7-furlong allowance race, no real blemish at all considering that he was returning from a long layoff, certainly hadn't been cranked up for his best effort (which probably makes those heads-up drills with Shanghai Bobby look even better), and also happened to catch a sloppy track that day (the winner was Majestic Hussar, who had previously ran off to a big win over a sloppy track @ Saratoga). Plus the time of the race was quite good, and Palace Malice was only beaten a couple of lengths (note also that it was 8 lengths back to the rest of the field that day). Since that race, Palace Malice has been working heads-up with none other than Violence, who is unbeaten in 3 starts (including two graded stakes) and has been using those drills to prep for the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, where he has beebn installed as the 9/5 ml favorite. Meanwhile, our boy Palace Malice isn't getting anywhere near that kind of respect, practically being dismissed @ 8/1 in this race. Incidentally, i read earlier this week that the last 3 Risen Stars have been won by Florida shippers, and Palace Malice is one of only two horses in this race that fits that bill (the other being the 5/2 ml favorite Normandy Invasion). Also be aware that, unlike in his seasonal debut last month, Palace Malice definitely IS cranked up for his best effort today, as he attempts to rack up some some points in the new Derby qualifying system. Fully expecting a top effort here, and considering his race record, the horses he's been working with in the mornings, and the success of Florida-based horses in this race, Palace Malice is a steal at this kind of price. It also helps that there really isn't a lot of speed in the race, so Palace Malice (who has ample speed) shouldn't have much difficulty securing a good spot once they leave the gate in this very large 14-horse field. I'm guessing he'll let Oxbow cross over and try to move up on that one's outside, which would likely have him sitting second or third in the early going. The biggest problem i'm having is that the track is currently muddy (as i write this on Friday night), and more rain is expected tomorrow (though i think it's supposed to clear out as the day moves along). So i'm not sure what kind of racing surface to expect. As mentioned earlier though, Palace Malice encountered a sloppy track in his last start @ Gulfstream, and seemed to handle it fine, so i'm not sure how much of a concern a sloppy track would be here. Might even help him, since the track would likely be playing to speed (the track is sealed now and will obviously be sealed tomorrow as well), and he figures to be forwardly-placed. I would be more concerned about a slower, drying-out type of track, but of course this is nothing we can control. All-in-all, there is a whole lot to like here at this kind of price. A whole lot. Expecting a very good effort here, and i suspect he'll be joining the Derby conversation after this weekend. Go Palace Malice.
HRT record:
89 for 336 (26%)
$763.80 mutuels ($8.56 avg)
Comments
Speaking of which, what kind of price do you guys expect? Obviously he won't be anywhere near 8/1. I'm hoping for 9/2, i think that's probably the top end of what we can expect. More likely he goes 7/2 or 4/1 though, i think.
Thoughts?
If you're gonna bet a future in Vegas or offshore, tonight's the night, as Watchmaker will have him at 5-1 after the race.
6-1 would have me tickled. 5-1 likely. 4-1 I'm still down. 3-1 I'm off, but I'll bet $2 and keep the ticket for after he wins the Triple Crown. This is a great spot to make a place bet as well, large field, plus when horses get bet down, much of that money is on the nose, so the horse's place price could be that of an 8-1 shot.
WEATHER, WEATHER, WEATHER?????
Who knows what the surface will be. If it is drying out mud, who knows? If it is wet sloppy/fast, 9/2 or 5-1 would be a gift!
Asst. trainer Whit Beckham makes the trip, as TAP stays in Florida to saddle Violence in the FOY. Whit does not think anybody will break any faster than PM and he will instruct Rosie to get him out and let him go. If Jon Court gets anxious and guns Oxbow from the start, PM will let him go but nobody thinks that Oxbow can go with PM, even on his best day. Palace Malice has the speed to click 3/4 in 1:09 flat and then he gets serious. Normandy Invasion has super late speed figs, but those aren't worth much when you're carrying 10 lbs of mud? Everybody is nervous as hell, except Whit Beckham, who is cool as a cucumber and sees this race as just the beginning of a trip to Louisville. Before PM bucked shins, he was considered #1 in the barn. As far as Whit is concerned, that ranking remains in tact.
If things don't work out, we would like to see at least a hard fought 3rd, with something to come back on in Rebel or Ark Derby. But 50 points tomorrow will get you in and afford you the options others won't have. We sure hope Beckham is right?
Thank you for the priceless info. Let's pray for fast.
Best of luck JG!!!!
Sorry John, thought he ran okay though. Probably would've won with a better trip.
I could have won with that much horse under me. But, we all know women cannot ride horses. Can't wait for this one to return with a nice strong ride. Unfortunately, that's only gonna get me even. LOL.
Still very impressed. John's closer to the Derby than any of us will ever be.....
I've already communicated with Dogwood about Rebel and Johnny V--or Calvin!
Or Irad Ortiz. Just get the dumb bitch off the horse.
I could not get to NOLA due to a family thing
and its a damn good thing I could not or I would have grabbed Rosie by the fuckin throat and let her have it!!!!!
Anger mgmt. issues?????
Needless to say---better races ahead---and better rides to boot!!!
Right now, since this race took nothing out of Palace Malice---3 weeks to Rebel in Oaklawn!!!
And jock change to Johnny V
or Calvin?
Yes. But we all have them after that. Remember the SPA ride she fucked up completely, when DC had us on a practical lock at a good price. I'll join John once more (and swear to God, I'm done with female jocks) in saying - Fuck Rosie.
BTW - JG what do you know about the Black Rock guys? They dress sharp, and bet their own horses to stupid prices. The also debuted a million dollar horse in the last race at GP.
Oh fuck, the Risen Star replay is coming on TVG. Okay, she should have won clear, not an awful ride, but she's not very strong. Any male jock wins clear, I'm excited for you JG. Let's hope he makes it home safe and sound.
Nobody happy with the ride!
Jock change forthcoming!
Rosie Napravnik, the rider of Palace Malice, commented that his two-turn debut was full of merit.
"He was really not standing great in the gate and maybe got off just a step slow," Napravnik said, "so we lost some position. But, having said that, I ended up getting an excellent trip. Was able to save ground when I wanted, I wasn't forced to move early or late, so we got a good trip. He ran a great race and we got beat half a length for everything, so for his first race at two turns and all, that I think it was an excellent race."
As for Violence....what the hell was Castellano thinking when the timer showed 1:08.4 for 6 panels...did they gut this horse? only time will tell. The Risen Star 6 panels was ran in 1.12.3, or about 3 and 4/5 seconds slower.
Say what?
She's acting like we didn't watch?
I guess she has to pander to try to retain (even though we know she's gone) the mount.
Does this dumb bitch realize this wasn't an educational trip? You need the points dummy - getting beat a "half a length for everything" could cost the connections millions with this new system. Somebody shake her.
And Violence isn't "gutted," he's crippled.
Don't argue about this. Javier, Joel, JV, almost any competent jock wins this fucking race.
Here's the replay, btw....
Ive Struck a Nerve 135-1 upset in Risen Star - ESPN
Hate to see him get hurt, but glad in so far as it helps Team 24.
Agree with you here, in fact my comment was a joke about what happens when you send a newly turned 3yo through fractions like that.