Saturday card from DiscreetPicks
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Gulfstream - Race 10
#4 Discreet Dancer (3/1 ml)
Pletcher colt by the supremely talented Discreet Cat looked sensational in a pair of one-turn starts over this surface last year (the latter at today's same distance), so much so that he went postward as the 4/5 favorite in last year's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Ended up finishing third there (his only career loss), perhaps he didn't like the two turns, but more likely there was another problem (a major one), because he immediately disappeared for an entire year after that race. Appears to have come back in top shape though, as he scored a sharp win sprinting in his return last month (while probably not 100% cranked), and has since come back to work a heads-up bullet on Feb. 25 with none other than Verrazano, the current Kentucky Derby favorite who has won his two career starts by a combined 23 lengths. Have to be extremely encouraged by that drill, and bear in mind that this horse remains unbeaten around one turn (3-for-3), with all of those wins coming over the local surface. And of course, he won't be the favorite here, with this being the comeback race of Fort Larned (3/5 ml), winner of the Breeders Cup Classic with a huge 117 Beyer. As you may or may not know, horses making their return from Breeders Cup wins have a long history of losing at very short prices (not all of them of course, but it does happen with some frequency), and also note that this is a one-turn race, and Fort Larned has not raced around one turn in a very long time. He should also be facing quite a bit of early pace pressure here, from Fort Loudon on his inside and also potentially Discreet Dancer on his outside (which might see Fort Larned caught between horses), though i suspect Discreet Dancer may sit just off the pace and then pounce on the turn. Looks to me as if Fort Larned may be extremely vulnerable in this spot (maybe not even 100% cranked for this one, on top of everything else), with Discreet Dancer offering overlaid odds as perhaps the most likely winner of the race.
Santa Anita - Race 5
#3 Smart Journey (8/1 ml)
Very interesting colt here for no-name trainer Michael Curtis (only 4 starters going all the way back to the beginning of last year). This guy was entered a few weeks ago @ 20/1 on the morning line, but had reportedly turned in some sharp workouts with jockey Martin Pedroza aboard. Seemed rather odd that Pedroza would take the time to work out an obscure first-time starter from a virtually non-existent barn, especially when that horse was regarded as such a longshot (again, 20/1 ml) to win first time out. And sure enough, some money showed, as this guy got bet down into the 7/1 range (if memory serves) before inexplicably scratching out of the race with about one minute to post. Obviously there was some kind of problem (and i notice in today's form that he was indeed a vet scratch), but in cases like this the horse is required to work out for the track vet before he's allowed to be entered back in another race, so it appears he's healthy, having worked twice during the interim and being entered back a relatively speedy 3 weeks later. It also appears that the morning-line maker noticed the money that he was taking last time, as he's now listed @ 8/1 ml rather than 20/1. That kinda sucks, but nothing wrong with 8/1 and he may indeed go higher than that (his connections certainly won't raise any eyebrows). Looking for a good run out of this guy, at a very good price. Will be no surprise if he pulls it off.
Santa Anita - Race 7
#3 Goldencents (2/1 ml)
Short morning line, but this horse should offer good value here as the much-hyped Baffert colt Flashback (8/5 ml) may get bet down to even-money (or even lower). Think the wrong horse is favored here, as this Doug O'Neill colt has been running at a consistently high level all the way back to last summer, when he ran off to win by 7 lengths in razor-sharp time @ Del Mar. Following that race, he made a tough cross-country ship to take on the heavy favorite (and eventual Breeders Cup winner) Shanghai Bobby, and he acquitted himself very nicely in that one, dueling with Shanghai Bobby up front before tiring late (note that he was making a pretty big stretch-out from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 mile, after shipping cross-country and also running over the deeper Belmont surface). Came out of that race to run a better-than-looked race (in my opinion) while winning the Delta Jackpot, as he was drawn on the extreme outside that day, and the Delta Downs track is a bull-ring, meaning he really had to gun it early to make it to the first turn in front, which he did with no problem (and kept right on going). Took a short break after that one, then came back with another win in the Sham Stakes, a race that he definitely wasn't cranked up for. He's definitely cranked up for this one though, and also got some valuable experience last time when sitting off the early pace, valuable because he'll likely be doing that again today. The stretch-out sprinter Salutos Amigos will likely gun to the front, with Flashback and Goldencents laying behind, and note the favorable post-draw of Goldencents here, drawn on the outside of Flashback so he may be able to keep that one boxed in along the rail (and behind Salutos Amigos) if things go well. Have to like the horse with significantly more experience and arguably just as much talent, who's also drawn better and will be offering perhaps double the price of Flashback. Good value on a very good horse.
HRT record:
89 for 337 (26%)
$763.80 mutuels ($8.56 avg)
#4 Discreet Dancer (3/1 ml)
Pletcher colt by the supremely talented Discreet Cat looked sensational in a pair of one-turn starts over this surface last year (the latter at today's same distance), so much so that he went postward as the 4/5 favorite in last year's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Ended up finishing third there (his only career loss), perhaps he didn't like the two turns, but more likely there was another problem (a major one), because he immediately disappeared for an entire year after that race. Appears to have come back in top shape though, as he scored a sharp win sprinting in his return last month (while probably not 100% cranked), and has since come back to work a heads-up bullet on Feb. 25 with none other than Verrazano, the current Kentucky Derby favorite who has won his two career starts by a combined 23 lengths. Have to be extremely encouraged by that drill, and bear in mind that this horse remains unbeaten around one turn (3-for-3), with all of those wins coming over the local surface. And of course, he won't be the favorite here, with this being the comeback race of Fort Larned (3/5 ml), winner of the Breeders Cup Classic with a huge 117 Beyer. As you may or may not know, horses making their return from Breeders Cup wins have a long history of losing at very short prices (not all of them of course, but it does happen with some frequency), and also note that this is a one-turn race, and Fort Larned has not raced around one turn in a very long time. He should also be facing quite a bit of early pace pressure here, from Fort Loudon on his inside and also potentially Discreet Dancer on his outside (which might see Fort Larned caught between horses), though i suspect Discreet Dancer may sit just off the pace and then pounce on the turn. Looks to me as if Fort Larned may be extremely vulnerable in this spot (maybe not even 100% cranked for this one, on top of everything else), with Discreet Dancer offering overlaid odds as perhaps the most likely winner of the race.
Santa Anita - Race 5
#3 Smart Journey (8/1 ml)
Very interesting colt here for no-name trainer Michael Curtis (only 4 starters going all the way back to the beginning of last year). This guy was entered a few weeks ago @ 20/1 on the morning line, but had reportedly turned in some sharp workouts with jockey Martin Pedroza aboard. Seemed rather odd that Pedroza would take the time to work out an obscure first-time starter from a virtually non-existent barn, especially when that horse was regarded as such a longshot (again, 20/1 ml) to win first time out. And sure enough, some money showed, as this guy got bet down into the 7/1 range (if memory serves) before inexplicably scratching out of the race with about one minute to post. Obviously there was some kind of problem (and i notice in today's form that he was indeed a vet scratch), but in cases like this the horse is required to work out for the track vet before he's allowed to be entered back in another race, so it appears he's healthy, having worked twice during the interim and being entered back a relatively speedy 3 weeks later. It also appears that the morning-line maker noticed the money that he was taking last time, as he's now listed @ 8/1 ml rather than 20/1. That kinda sucks, but nothing wrong with 8/1 and he may indeed go higher than that (his connections certainly won't raise any eyebrows). Looking for a good run out of this guy, at a very good price. Will be no surprise if he pulls it off.
Santa Anita - Race 7
#3 Goldencents (2/1 ml)
Short morning line, but this horse should offer good value here as the much-hyped Baffert colt Flashback (8/5 ml) may get bet down to even-money (or even lower). Think the wrong horse is favored here, as this Doug O'Neill colt has been running at a consistently high level all the way back to last summer, when he ran off to win by 7 lengths in razor-sharp time @ Del Mar. Following that race, he made a tough cross-country ship to take on the heavy favorite (and eventual Breeders Cup winner) Shanghai Bobby, and he acquitted himself very nicely in that one, dueling with Shanghai Bobby up front before tiring late (note that he was making a pretty big stretch-out from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 mile, after shipping cross-country and also running over the deeper Belmont surface). Came out of that race to run a better-than-looked race (in my opinion) while winning the Delta Jackpot, as he was drawn on the extreme outside that day, and the Delta Downs track is a bull-ring, meaning he really had to gun it early to make it to the first turn in front, which he did with no problem (and kept right on going). Took a short break after that one, then came back with another win in the Sham Stakes, a race that he definitely wasn't cranked up for. He's definitely cranked up for this one though, and also got some valuable experience last time when sitting off the early pace, valuable because he'll likely be doing that again today. The stretch-out sprinter Salutos Amigos will likely gun to the front, with Flashback and Goldencents laying behind, and note the favorable post-draw of Goldencents here, drawn on the outside of Flashback so he may be able to keep that one boxed in along the rail (and behind Salutos Amigos) if things go well. Have to like the horse with significantly more experience and arguably just as much talent, who's also drawn better and will be offering perhaps double the price of Flashback. Good value on a very good horse.
HRT record:
89 for 337 (26%)
$763.80 mutuels ($8.56 avg)
Comments
Good luck DC. I'm not gonna try to separate the San Felipe horses. On another note - and I was mad at the Smart Journey scam last time, but I heard right after his ankle was as big as a grapefruit. Not sure the reason, and certainly don't want you off him (hell I might bet $50.)
1-for-3, with a winner on Discreet Dancer ($5.80)