FBWinners.com Rebel Analysis
fbwinners
Senior Member
Oaklawn Park
Race 10
Rebel Stakes G2
1 - #1 Treasury Bill WP Well Ron Ellis finally is going to let his colt stretch his legs today. He reminds me of Orb as I had both of these colts on my radar and let Orb slip pass me twice. Well today I wont let this Lemon Drop Kid colt slip past me as he will relish the two turns of Oaklawn Park. The post position draw is exactly what you want over this strip. Last week we cashed on Cyber Secret as the two big guns were parked on the grandstand side and Cyber Secret saved all the ground and had enough left in the tank to take the Razorback at a nice price. I dont think we will get the ml on Treasury Bill today as he is the buzz horse coming into this race. Joe Talamo is riding out of his mind as of now and he knows this colt like the back of his hand. I was told from someone close to the Joe T camp that his last work on March 11 was his best to date and this colt is busting out of his skin at this time. The West want to win this race more than some can imagine as they send a rabbit to put pressure on Super 99. Lets just hope we can get a nice clean trip from the inside and if we do I dont see anyone holding off this colt today. Also he is getting 7 lbs from Oxbow and Super 99 as well!!!!!!
2 - #9 Oxbow The Coach has replaced Smiling Jon Court with the HOFer from the West Coast that hates to fly and is back in Hot Springs again this weekend. Well I can tell you one thing Mike Smith told Bob Baffert today after his victory aboard War Academy that he just might be my Derby horse. The difference in this runner for The Coach is that he isnt just running this one to take a shot at the Ky Derby as he has been on the trail and has a schedule in place all year long. I agree with running Oxbow in the Rebel over the La. Derby as this colt has blistered this surface in the mornings and its time to give him a shot to walk out the barn and into the starting gate. The post position draw is not so ideal but look for Mike to get a nice position as I see him tucking in after using his tactical speed from the gate.
3 - #10 Super Ninety Nine The only reason I have this colt at this spot is this stat from Oaklawn park there have been 77 starters breaking from the 11 hole and only 3 WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He is also spotting our selection 7 lbs and is also picking up 5 lbs from the Southwest. Well that is the negative on Super 99 and on the other hand he is burning up the track out West and is toying with his stable mates in the morning. Bob is real high on this colt and since he has started running two turn races he has become a different animal. He reminds me of Shackleford at this time on the trail. Can he win YES but there are just too many negatives to back him at odds on when the gates pop. If he wins from this post with all the speed signed up we have to start paying attention ASAP!!!!!!!
4 - #2 Carve This one looks like a real sleeper IMO!!! Al Stall Jr. tried to sneak this one through 30K and Steve Asmussen stole him. This one is regally bred and it looks as he has taken to this surface like a duck to water. He will have the shortest trip around the track and his last win came over a very deep and tiring track. Look for C Nak to give this colt the same type of ride he gave Hear the Ghost last week in the San Felipe. C Nak is in town to ride MMA for the Assman.
Race 10
Rebel Stakes G2
1 - #1 Treasury Bill WP Well Ron Ellis finally is going to let his colt stretch his legs today. He reminds me of Orb as I had both of these colts on my radar and let Orb slip pass me twice. Well today I wont let this Lemon Drop Kid colt slip past me as he will relish the two turns of Oaklawn Park. The post position draw is exactly what you want over this strip. Last week we cashed on Cyber Secret as the two big guns were parked on the grandstand side and Cyber Secret saved all the ground and had enough left in the tank to take the Razorback at a nice price. I dont think we will get the ml on Treasury Bill today as he is the buzz horse coming into this race. Joe Talamo is riding out of his mind as of now and he knows this colt like the back of his hand. I was told from someone close to the Joe T camp that his last work on March 11 was his best to date and this colt is busting out of his skin at this time. The West want to win this race more than some can imagine as they send a rabbit to put pressure on Super 99. Lets just hope we can get a nice clean trip from the inside and if we do I dont see anyone holding off this colt today. Also he is getting 7 lbs from Oxbow and Super 99 as well!!!!!!
2 - #9 Oxbow The Coach has replaced Smiling Jon Court with the HOFer from the West Coast that hates to fly and is back in Hot Springs again this weekend. Well I can tell you one thing Mike Smith told Bob Baffert today after his victory aboard War Academy that he just might be my Derby horse. The difference in this runner for The Coach is that he isnt just running this one to take a shot at the Ky Derby as he has been on the trail and has a schedule in place all year long. I agree with running Oxbow in the Rebel over the La. Derby as this colt has blistered this surface in the mornings and its time to give him a shot to walk out the barn and into the starting gate. The post position draw is not so ideal but look for Mike to get a nice position as I see him tucking in after using his tactical speed from the gate.
3 - #10 Super Ninety Nine The only reason I have this colt at this spot is this stat from Oaklawn park there have been 77 starters breaking from the 11 hole and only 3 WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He is also spotting our selection 7 lbs and is also picking up 5 lbs from the Southwest. Well that is the negative on Super 99 and on the other hand he is burning up the track out West and is toying with his stable mates in the morning. Bob is real high on this colt and since he has started running two turn races he has become a different animal. He reminds me of Shackleford at this time on the trail. Can he win YES but there are just too many negatives to back him at odds on when the gates pop. If he wins from this post with all the speed signed up we have to start paying attention ASAP!!!!!!!
4 - #2 Carve This one looks like a real sleeper IMO!!! Al Stall Jr. tried to sneak this one through 30K and Steve Asmussen stole him. This one is regally bred and it looks as he has taken to this surface like a duck to water. He will have the shortest trip around the track and his last win came over a very deep and tiring track. Look for C Nak to give this colt the same type of ride he gave Hear the Ghost last week in the San Felipe. C Nak is in town to ride MMA for the Assman.
Comments
I'm using 1/4-9 only no boxing just straight....Win bet only. DD 1/7
Thanks for your insight
Let's do this! :thumbup:
Carrying too much weight IMO. Bad day for #24, too. It is a little bit crazy that when all the blue-bloods decide to stop with the drugs to improve the breed, the old school trainers win big races in bunches.
Now what? See who gets points?