Why ORB wins the Kentucky Derby

CigarShop

The past few days I've been spending hours of researching the top 30 contenders for the Derby.
Even though I have future bets on Itsmyluckyday and Uncaptured I'll be wagering on ORB in this weekends final Derby Pool.

Below are my reasons why he will win

ORB: Malibu Moon-Lady Liberty-Unbridled

Malibu Moon now 16 years old is currently the 2013 leading sire in ALL of North America.
His most recent graded stakes winners are: Kauai Kate, More Chocolate, Eden's Moon, and Prospective.
His stud fee is 70K for the 2013 season.

The main reason is SHUG, he truly does what is in the best interest of the horse, being the Phipps trainer since 1986.
He trained LURE to back to back BC Mile wins. He won the Belmont with Easy Goer. Has 9 BC wins. Most he has accomplished a rare trifecta in training a BC winner,daughter, and granddaughter.
Personal Ensign,My Flag, and Flag Flying.

ORBs most recent works : 3/18 4F :48 B 2/12 -- 3/11 4F :48.2 B 2/16

In a year where there are so many need for the lead type horses, ORBs running style is perfect for the 1 1/4 Derby distance.

DiscreetCat

Hope you're right (short of Palace Malice winning or the Verrazano/Field combo coming in), but i don't rank the horse as highly as some others do. He was barely able to get by Violence in the FOY despite the San Felipe-type pace duel up front, though of course the final time was quite good and i certainly won't hold that against him. I agree that Shug is an asset, and the distance probably is as well, i just don't see him as having the same talent level as Verrazano and some of the other top-tier contenders. Best horse doesn't always win the Dereby though, so there's always that. I think Orb deserves to be Top Ten right now but probably not Top Five. Hopefully he can step up his game a little bit as we draw closer to the race, and that's another thing he has going for him, he's definitely been improving lately. Good luck with him...

CigarShop

This post just might come true. March 20 this was written.

SirBear

So basically Orb is going to win the Kentucky Derby because he is by Malibou Moon and he is trained by Shug. Let's break that statement down.

Malibou Moon is a tad suspect at 10f. Look at the prominent horses he has sired. Most scream middle distance, but Orb certainly looks as if he can get 10f, and I don't place too much stock in breeding when a son of Distorted Humor, or Elusive Quality, or Boundary can win the Derby. So, all in all, the fact that he is a son of Malibou Moon means nada as a viable Kentucky Derby handicapping angle.

Now, Shug. Every single horse of Shug's that you mention ran decades ago. The one whiff of stardom he has had in recent years is Point of Entry. For all you know, Orb is Dialed In part II. Also, no offense whatsoever, but bro, you picked him after he won the Fountain of Youth! Your future ticket on ItsMyLuckyDay is probably going to be lower odds than what the horse goes off at on race day (IF he even makes the starting gate).

So forgive me if I'm underwhelmed! Orb is honest, but man is he slowwwwwwww. He could be sitting on a big one though.

But all that said, Good luck to ya!:clap2:

Mikenyce

I think your derby winner is going to come from the wood memorial tomm and no not one of the top 2 picks.

KP-HR2k9

Mikenyce wrote: »

I think your derby winner is going to come from the wood memorial tomm and no not one of the top 2 picks.

who you like in the wood memorial ?
i want to beat the 2top choice but is a tough call, wow
i was leaning to the #10.Freedom Child 30/1 ML & #2.Normandy Invasion 5/1 ML to give them a good run. i dont know yet, :shrr:

John Greenhaw

He may not run a fuckin lick, but my money is on ALWAYS IN A TIZ, who has been a major disappointment since breaking maiden last summer at SPA. Always an excuse, but Calvin and his buds were big on his chances while stabled at Oaklawn Park. Easy works since going back to Florida and then on back to NY, and the OP crew say he is busting at the seems to get back on the track. Dom Schettino adds blinkers/on and hopes he will show mid-pack speed and come late at what should be a hot pace. This is a great day of racing and it only gets better from here on out. Good Luck !

cinfront

My Horse for the Derby has been Verrazano but for todays race @ Aqueduct my money is on Vyjack.
The main reason for that choice is he'll be holding nothing back, he's a GUILDING and they'll run for the MONEY and not Breeding Rights since he can't.
Get all the money you can get while the gettin is good.....Oh, and just to mention this puppy is Dang Good.

Good Luck and May The Horse Be With You.......

Mikenyce

Going with Normandy Invasion in this one. Horse is razor sharp and I think he runs by them all at the end

Horsin~Aro

I love the extra week between the wood and the derby. always shyd away from the wood winner but Mike you may be right here.