Is this possible?

dirtyshirt

SANTA ANITA'S Advertisement for the SA Derby states in bold:

"37% of Santa Anita Derby runners have gone on to win Triple Crown races. Who's next?"


Were fields small enough in the past that this could be true? Do they mean SA Derby winners, not runners? That's a huge number IMO.

DiscreetCat

They're probably counting Sunday Silence twice, Silver Charm twice, etc.

Who knows if it's true or not.

dirtyshirt

Well, going back about 10 years (this off the top of my head):

There's been about 8 entrants a year (maybe 9), and I'll Have Another won 2x and Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness. Giacomo maybe (was he in the SA Derby?).

That's 4 winners from about 80 or 90 starts, unless I'm way off or something, right?

Small field sizes (and multiple leg winners as DC suggests) is the only way this could happen.

donniep

If my interpretation of your interpretation is right, an SA runner would have to win every TC race, since the most they could win was 3 races, and with an average of 8 starters in the race, this would give them 37.5%.

I may be grasping at straws here, but I'm guessing that their interpretation is that SA Derby runners have won AT LEAST ONE TC race in 37% of the years they've been running the race. This could be accomplished if SA runners won one out of every eight TC races, but would take a little more with a multiple winner in a year. Using your example over the last ten years, including Giacamo, you would have 30%. So if Goldencents, Flashback, or Super Ninety Nine, for instance, win a TC race, it might pop up to 38% in next year's promo.

It's just a marketing ploy to hype the race by letting you know that you have a good chance of seeing the winner of a TC race if you come out to the track.