Looks like Orb is doing pretty well right now

DiscreetCat

Nice article...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77687/mcgaughey-impressed-with-orbs-latest-workout

Mikenyce

Question for you? I spoke with an old timer last night (91 to be exact) guy has been betting horses forever and told me to throw out any horse in the derby that didnt break there madien in there 1st or 2nd shot no matter how many races they have won since. Do any of you guys know what the win percentage is for derby runners that broke there madien in there 3rd start or later? Thanks

fbwinners

Here is who you should toss per your discussion with the OT.


Code West

Mylute

Orb

Oxbow

Revolutionary

Tiz a Minister

Winning Cause

John Greenhaw

Only way I'm tossing out MYLUTE is if he draws bad! Tommy Amoss is playing his cards close to the vest and this one is bustin out! Rosie on board will hurt odds, due to female wagering factor, but not as much as Calvin on Rev will hurt his odds. I might be hard pressed to toss ORB too? The others---no problem tossing for me, even OXBOW, who didn't show me much in Ark Derby, even though he didn't have to. All this subject to change in days to come!

Mikenyce

John Greenhaw wrote: »

Only way I'm tossing out MYLUTE is if he draws bad! Tommy Amoss is playing his cards close to the vest and this one is bustin out! Rosie on board will hurt odds, due to female wagering factor, but not as much as Calvin on Rev will hurt his odds. I might be hard pressed to toss ORB too? The others---no problem tossing for me, even OXBOW, who didn't show me much in Ark Derby, even though he didn't have to. All this subject to change in days to come!

The interesting thing about Mylute is in his 2nd career start he ran in a stakes race. Finished 2nd in that race which I believe were against all winners then came back 2 weeks later to break maiden in his 3rd start. What happens if he doesn't run in that stake race and just a MSW?

dirtyshirt

fbwinners wrote: »

Here is who you should toss per your discussion with the OT.


Code West

Mylute

Orb

Oxbow

Revolutionary

Tiz a Minister

Winning Cause

While I agree with the old-timer in theory, and a Derby winner should win early, some trainers don't even give the horse a chance until his third start. Now if a 25% debut trainer (Baffert, Pletcher) has a horse that didn't break through in his first two - that's and issue. BUT, with Shug or somebody like Ron Ellis, I'm more than willing to accept a horse a who raced his way to fitness.

dirtyshirt

Mikenyce wrote: »

Question for you? I spoke with an old timer last night (91 to be exact) guy has been betting horses forever and told me to throw out any horse in the derby that didnt break there madien in there 1st or 2nd shot no matter how many races they have won since. Do any of you guys know what the win percentage is for derby runners that broke there madien in there 3rd start or later? Thanks

I have a copy of Champions and some spare time. I'm gonna look really quick and see. I'm sure I'll miss plenty

1930 Gallant Fox - No (3rd start)
1931 Twenty Grand - Yes (romped)
1935 Omaha - Yes (In allowance company)
1937 War Admiral - Yes (His PP's are ridiculous)

1941 Whirlaway - Yes (More crazy PP's)
1943 Count Fleet - No
1946 Assault - No
1948 Citation - Yes (Again, wild PP's)

More later. Remember, these are only divisional Champions. Doesn't seem to matter, but we'll see as we move forward.

dirtyshirt

dirtyshirt wrote: »

While I agree with the old-timer in theory, and a Derby winner should win early, some trainers don't even give the horse a chance until his third start. Now if a 25% debut trainer (Baffert, Pletcher) has a horse that didn't break through in his first two - that's and issue. BUT, with Shug or somebody like Ron Ellis, I'm more than willing to accept a horse a who raced his way to fitness.

I'm still interested in this. I didn't give up, just busy.

Houdini

The state of Kentucky changed labs in 2010.Pletcher at Churchill last 3 years

2010-21 for 89

2011-6 for 60

2012-0 for 36.

Coincendence maybe.Ill pass on Orb.

Houdini

Houdini wrote: »

The state of Kentucky changed labs in 2010.Pletcher at Churchill last 3 years

2010-21 for 89

2011-6 for 60

2012-0 for 36.

Coincendence maybe.Ill pass on Orb.

Correction ill pass on Verrazano

dirtyshirt

dirtyshirt wrote: »

I have a copy of Champions and some spare time. I'm gonna look really quick and see. I'm sure I'll miss plenty

1930 Gallant Fox - No (3rd start)
1931 Twenty Grand - Yes (romped)
1935 Omaha - Yes (In allowance company)
1937 War Admiral - Yes (His PP's are ridiculous)

1941 Whirlaway - Yes (More crazy PP's)
1943 Count Fleet - No
1946 Assault - No
1948 Citation - Yes (Again, wild PP's)

More later. Remember, these are only divisional Champions. Doesn't seem to matter, but we'll see as we move forward.

1955 Swaps - Yes (Cal-Breds, but "won handily") Still a monster.
1956 Needles - Yes
1958 Tim Tam - Yes (Easily versus Allowance company)

Ok, looking good here. There's also a couple great horses from this era who missed less than a neck in the Derby and MOST (not all) broke their maidens early (but they didn't win the KD regasrdless).

dirtyshirt

1961 Carryback - Yes
1963 Chateaugay - Yes (Easily)
1964 Northern Dancer - Yes (Crushed Canada Breds?)


Well, It looks good for the old timer again. Lets hope his memory has stayed the same, and the game hasn't changed (I know, that's a lot of hope considering his age, and this game).....

dirtyshirt

I think Orb is just hitting his best stride. Any word on how he's settled in at CD?

DiscreetCat

I just checked the last 10 Derby winners, and they all qualify under that system (though Mine That Bird did win a maiden-claimer second time out). Here ya go.....definitely interesting.

I'll Have Another (won debut)
Animal Kingdom (won second start)
Super Saver (won second start)
Mine That Bird (won second start)
Big Brown (won debut)
Street Sense (won second start)
Barbaro (won debut)
Giacomo (won second start)
Funny Cide (won debut)
War Emblem (won debut)


Not sure how pertinent this info really is, because even if you could eliminate with 100% certainty any horse who doesn't fit that profile, you're still left with 13 other horses. Something to be aware of though, or so it would seem...glad the old-timer mentioned it to you (and thanks for posting about it).

Duckgawd

Monarchos 3rd start
Fusaichi Pegasus 2nd start
Charismatic 6th start
Real quiet 7th start
Silver charm 2nd start
Grindstone 1st start
Thunder gulch 2nd start
Go for gin 3rd start
Sea hero 4th start
Oil e. tee 2nd start
Strike the gold 3rd start
Unbridled 1st start
Sunday silence 2nd start
Winning colors 1st start
Alysheba 3rd start
Ferdinand 4th start
Spend a buck 1st start
Swale 2nd start
Sunnys halo 1st start
Gato del sol 3rd start
Pleasant colony 2nd start
Genuine risk 1st start

That takes us back to 1980 to present day between DC and I

Mikenyce

Duckgawd wrote: »

Monarchos 3rd start
Fusaichi Pegasus 2nd start
Charismatic 6th start
Real quiet 7th start
Silver charm 2nd start
Grindstone 1st start
Thunder gulch 2nd start
Go for gin 3rd start
Sea hero 4th start
Oil e. tee 2nd start
Strike the gold 3rd start
Unbridled 1st start
Sunday silence 2nd start
Winning colors 1st start
Alysheba 3rd start
Ferdinand 4th start
Spend a buck 1st start
Swale 2nd start
Sunnys halo 1st start
Gato del sol 3rd start
Pleasant colony 2nd start
Genuine risk 1st start

That takes us back to 1980 to present day between DC and I

Great info Thanks

dirtyshirt

DiscreetCat wrote: »

I just checked the last 10 Derby winners, and they all qualify under that system (though Mine That Bird did win a maiden-claimer second time out). Here ya go.....definitely interesting.

I'll Have Another (won debut)
Animal Kingdom (won second start)
Super Saver (won second start)
Mine That Bird (won second start)
Big Brown (won debut)
Street Sense (won second start)
Barbaro (won debut)
Giacomo (won second start)
Funny Cide (won debut)
War Emblem (won debut)


Not sure how pertinent this info really is, because even if you could eliminate with 100% certainty any horse who doesn't fit that profile, you're still left with 13 other horses. Something to be aware of though, or so it would seem...glad the old-timer mentioned it to you (and thanks for posting about it).

This is the race my father bet a future based off I think. His future paid less than Ken "Giacomo" Rudolph paid on Derby Day.

rayphil

Said orb looked amazing today going 4f in 47.89 and baffert pretty much ruling out Charlie and code west..

JohnnyPutz

Powerhouse gallop out too supposedly, i'm sure this is a bit of hyperbole but his work was being compared to Barbaro and Street Sense's before their Derbys.

dirtyshirt

Straight from Joel:

Orb, under exercise rider Jenn Patterson, blew past Overwhelming with incredible ease in midstretch of the half-mile work, and Rosario could only smile as Orb continued to get further and further away from him while galloping out.

“I was watching to see him and what he did,” Rosario said of Orb, his mount in the Kentucky Derby. “He really moved well. I think he worked very well. I didn’t know if I was going slow or if he was going fast.”


It's way funnier with an accent.

Mikenyce

Something I pulled off of Facebook interesting

In the last eleven out of twelve years, every Kentucky Derby winner’s sire or damsire’s daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. In seven of eleven instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Funny Cide is the only Kentucky Derby winner in the last twelve years whose damsire hadn't produced a winner at 1 ¼ miles.

Mikenyce

Mikenyce wrote: »

Something I pulled off of Facebook interesting

In the last eleven out of twelve years, every Kentucky Derby winner’s sire or damsire’s daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. In seven of eleven instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Funny Cide is the only Kentucky Derby winner in the last twelve years whose damsire hadn't produced a winner at 1 ¼ miles.

Horses under this situation:
Orb, Verrazano, Revolutionary, Black Onyx, Palace Malice, and Oxbow

Mikenyce

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikenyce
Something I pulled off of Facebook interesting

In the last eleven out of twelve years, every Kentucky Derby winner’s sire or damsire’s daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. In seven of eleven instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Funny Cide is the only Kentucky Derby winner in the last twelve years whose damsire hadn't produced a winner at 1 ¼ miles.

Horses under this situation:
Orb, Verrazano, Revolutionary, Black Onyx, Palace Malice, and Oxbow

Interesting

rayphil

Well mike all 3 winner are in there...lets bump this thread next year..