Saratoga Friday 08/09
BGboothA
Junior Member
Looking at some Saratoga action for Friday 08/09/2013.
Race 1 (5.5f / Turf) 3-7-6-8
Love this race and we may even be able to find some value in it as well. The 3 UNCLE SOUTHERN is ready to pop here, we have him rated as a double positive with a 12.0 strong start and a race leading 6.4 strong finish. Sitting as the 4th favorite on the M/L we may also get some value out of this one as well.
Race 3 (7f / Dirt) 3>7-8-2>
A couple of first time starters in this one, but I dont think they play into the mix at all. My favorite here is the 7 START JUMPING. Who may be set up for a nice trip here. Another double positive angle with a 7.3 strong start and a race leading 9.1 strong finish. A long shot here who could cause some ruckus and will more than likely be in the back end of the exotics is the 2 LIKE A BOSS, who is trending up may be right where he needs to be to have a shot late in this 7f race.
Race 3 (16f / Dirt) 1>5>4>1A
I hate capping these 2 mile races, 16 furlongs what the heck. While there is a heavy favorite that has every reason to be the favorite in the 1 EA, I am going to go against him and take a shot with the second longest shot on the board, 3 POPPLESTONE, who is has had quite a history his last few out. Watching replays of this horse, 3 of his last 4 starts included some major trouble, the one race that he ran clean he won going away. If and its a big IF he can stay out of trouble, he should have a shot here. Its worth a look especially if he can stay somewhere near his ML of 15-1.
Race 4 (5.5f / Dirt) 3-4-6-1
1.4% historical data, the 4 FORBIDDEN TALENT has the connections of Valezquez and Pletcher and will be over bet, but probably win. Nothing that I am going to put my money on in this one.
Race 5 (5.5f / Turf) 12>3>6-5
Pretty much the same idea as race 4, only substitute 6 MISS LEACH with Castellano and Chad Brown combining for a short priced winner.
Race 6 (5.5f / Dirt) 1>7>3-4
Although we have another short race with a number of FTS in it, I like the 1 EMPIRE DREAMS who is coming off a nice run in which he finished 4th in his first time out. Right now he is the second favorite and should be poised to win this one from the inside post.
Race 7 (8.5f / Turf) 9-6>4-1
Another short price horse from Chad Brown, its simple, which ever horse Brown chooses to put under Castellano will win this race at a short price. If I had to pick someone to beat them .no I wouldnt pick anyone to beat them in this one, take either the 1 HIGH HEEL KITTEN or the 1A ALL STAR KITTEN.
Race 8 (8.5f / InnerT) 6>3-4-1A
It will be interesting to see where the money goes here, I dont think the money line is going to hold for all of these guys and someone is going to get a decent price. I really like 3 RYDILLUC but I really worry about his price come post time. The pace should be pretty easy and Rydilluc should be sitting just off the lead coming home, and should have every opportunity to win this one down the stretch.
Race 9 (9f / Dirt) 4>7-2-6
Is it possible that the 4 CASH FOR CLUNKERS gets away from this field on the lead and they let him have an easy pace. I think it is, and at a ML of 12-1, you have to take the opportunity seriously. While the -17.5 Strong Finish is a number that would usually scare me off a horse, I think this horse could wire this field if given the right scenario. If the field doesnt let the 4 get away from them look for the 2 SEA ISLAND to be in the right place to take down the leaders and win this race in a close one.
Race 10 (9f / InnerT) 2-9-6-4
Hmmm, another longshot leads our numbers with the 2 MATT AND JESSE, the only double positive horse (although 0.3/1.3 barely count as positive) the 2 may have the right lineup to take this race down.
Race 1 (5.5f / Turf) 3-7-6-8
Love this race and we may even be able to find some value in it as well. The 3 UNCLE SOUTHERN is ready to pop here, we have him rated as a double positive with a 12.0 strong start and a race leading 6.4 strong finish. Sitting as the 4th favorite on the M/L we may also get some value out of this one as well.
Race 3 (7f / Dirt) 3>7-8-2>
A couple of first time starters in this one, but I dont think they play into the mix at all. My favorite here is the 7 START JUMPING. Who may be set up for a nice trip here. Another double positive angle with a 7.3 strong start and a race leading 9.1 strong finish. A long shot here who could cause some ruckus and will more than likely be in the back end of the exotics is the 2 LIKE A BOSS, who is trending up may be right where he needs to be to have a shot late in this 7f race.
Race 3 (16f / Dirt) 1>5>4>1A
I hate capping these 2 mile races, 16 furlongs what the heck. While there is a heavy favorite that has every reason to be the favorite in the 1 EA, I am going to go against him and take a shot with the second longest shot on the board, 3 POPPLESTONE, who is has had quite a history his last few out. Watching replays of this horse, 3 of his last 4 starts included some major trouble, the one race that he ran clean he won going away. If and its a big IF he can stay out of trouble, he should have a shot here. Its worth a look especially if he can stay somewhere near his ML of 15-1.
Race 4 (5.5f / Dirt) 3-4-6-1
1.4% historical data, the 4 FORBIDDEN TALENT has the connections of Valezquez and Pletcher and will be over bet, but probably win. Nothing that I am going to put my money on in this one.
Race 5 (5.5f / Turf) 12>3>6-5
Pretty much the same idea as race 4, only substitute 6 MISS LEACH with Castellano and Chad Brown combining for a short priced winner.
Race 6 (5.5f / Dirt) 1>7>3-4
Although we have another short race with a number of FTS in it, I like the 1 EMPIRE DREAMS who is coming off a nice run in which he finished 4th in his first time out. Right now he is the second favorite and should be poised to win this one from the inside post.
Race 7 (8.5f / Turf) 9-6>4-1
Another short price horse from Chad Brown, its simple, which ever horse Brown chooses to put under Castellano will win this race at a short price. If I had to pick someone to beat them .no I wouldnt pick anyone to beat them in this one, take either the 1 HIGH HEEL KITTEN or the 1A ALL STAR KITTEN.
Race 8 (8.5f / InnerT) 6>3-4-1A
It will be interesting to see where the money goes here, I dont think the money line is going to hold for all of these guys and someone is going to get a decent price. I really like 3 RYDILLUC but I really worry about his price come post time. The pace should be pretty easy and Rydilluc should be sitting just off the lead coming home, and should have every opportunity to win this one down the stretch.
Race 9 (9f / Dirt) 4>7-2-6
Is it possible that the 4 CASH FOR CLUNKERS gets away from this field on the lead and they let him have an easy pace. I think it is, and at a ML of 12-1, you have to take the opportunity seriously. While the -17.5 Strong Finish is a number that would usually scare me off a horse, I think this horse could wire this field if given the right scenario. If the field doesnt let the 4 get away from them look for the 2 SEA ISLAND to be in the right place to take down the leaders and win this race in a close one.
Race 10 (9f / InnerT) 2-9-6-4
Hmmm, another longshot leads our numbers with the 2 MATT AND JESSE, the only double positive horse (although 0.3/1.3 barely count as positive) the 2 may have the right lineup to take this race down.
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