Two plays for Saturday (Mar 1)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Aqueduct - Race 5
#8 Whyalwaysme (6/1 ml)
First-timer for the solid debut trainer Dominick Schettino appears to have outworked then-unraced barnmate Killaday (by .02) from the gate back on Jan 21 @ Belmont, which looks awfully good now considering Killaday subsequently ran off to an 8-length win in her debut @ Aqueduct a couple of weeks later on Feb 17. Also of note is the fact that rider Mike Luzzi gets the mount here (Killaday was ridden by Taylor Rice, in case you're wondering), and Luzzi is showing a flat-bet profit of over 50% with Schettino going back to the beginning of last year (from 32 mounts). Looks live here at a nice price.
Gulfstream - Race 9
#3 No Nay Never (2/1 ml)
Highly interesting colt here for trainer Wesley Ward. Ran off to an easy debut win @ the Keeneland Spring meet (as many Ward 2yo's often do), then shipped to England for the prestigious Royal Ascot meet and won a Group 2 stakes there (while overcoming a bad start in a 14-horse field), then shipped over to France and won a Group 1 stakes over second-place finisher Vorda, who ended up going favored in the Breeders Cup Juvenile FiIlies Turf last year. Fast-forward to more recently, and this colt worked a best-of-102 bullet over the local Gulfsteam surface back on Feb 2, then followed that up by apparently outworking older barnmate Judy the Beauty (by .02) on Feb 15, and that's no small matter considering that Judy the Beauty was last seen running second in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last year. Looks like this guy is the real deal, and although he's listed @ 2/1 ml, the price should be quite acceptable as he's facing off today against Pletcher's Grade 1-winning Kentucky Derby prospect Havana, who is listed as the 9/5 ml favorite). I also have some reason to believe that Havana may not have progressed much (if at all) since last fall, because his worktab is very conspicuously missing some team-drills with Pletcher's other top-level Derby prospects, something that is quite out-of-character for a well-meant Pletcher Derby prosoect around this time of year. In fact, the only recent drill where i have Havan working with anybody came on Feb 11 when he worked with Discreetly Elusive, a twice-beaten maiden for Pletcher who came out of that drill to lose for a third time, running second behind a 43/1 shot on Feb 17. Think we're getting the better horse at the bigger price here.
HRT record:
94 for 350 (27%)
$807.30 mutuels ($8.59 avg)
#8 Whyalwaysme (6/1 ml)
First-timer for the solid debut trainer Dominick Schettino appears to have outworked then-unraced barnmate Killaday (by .02) from the gate back on Jan 21 @ Belmont, which looks awfully good now considering Killaday subsequently ran off to an 8-length win in her debut @ Aqueduct a couple of weeks later on Feb 17. Also of note is the fact that rider Mike Luzzi gets the mount here (Killaday was ridden by Taylor Rice, in case you're wondering), and Luzzi is showing a flat-bet profit of over 50% with Schettino going back to the beginning of last year (from 32 mounts). Looks live here at a nice price.
Gulfstream - Race 9
#3 No Nay Never (2/1 ml)
Highly interesting colt here for trainer Wesley Ward. Ran off to an easy debut win @ the Keeneland Spring meet (as many Ward 2yo's often do), then shipped to England for the prestigious Royal Ascot meet and won a Group 2 stakes there (while overcoming a bad start in a 14-horse field), then shipped over to France and won a Group 1 stakes over second-place finisher Vorda, who ended up going favored in the Breeders Cup Juvenile FiIlies Turf last year. Fast-forward to more recently, and this colt worked a best-of-102 bullet over the local Gulfsteam surface back on Feb 2, then followed that up by apparently outworking older barnmate Judy the Beauty (by .02) on Feb 15, and that's no small matter considering that Judy the Beauty was last seen running second in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last year. Looks like this guy is the real deal, and although he's listed @ 2/1 ml, the price should be quite acceptable as he's facing off today against Pletcher's Grade 1-winning Kentucky Derby prospect Havana, who is listed as the 9/5 ml favorite). I also have some reason to believe that Havana may not have progressed much (if at all) since last fall, because his worktab is very conspicuously missing some team-drills with Pletcher's other top-level Derby prospects, something that is quite out-of-character for a well-meant Pletcher Derby prosoect around this time of year. In fact, the only recent drill where i have Havan working with anybody came on Feb 11 when he worked with Discreetly Elusive, a twice-beaten maiden for Pletcher who came out of that drill to lose for a third time, running second behind a 43/1 shot on Feb 17. Think we're getting the better horse at the bigger price here.
HRT record:
94 for 350 (27%)
$807.30 mutuels ($8.59 avg)
Comments
No Nay Never ran second, but was clearly unplayable after the scratch of Havana left him @ 1/5 odds approaching post-time.