Rebel Stakes play
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Oaklawn - Race 10
#8 Kobe's Back (7/2 ml)
Flashy late-running gray from the Sadler barn had reportedly been training exceptionally well for his 3yo debut last month, and ran an absolutely dynamite race (against a very sub-optimal pace scenario) to draw away very impressively in fast time. Also worth noting, that was his first ran on dirt, as all three of his 2yo starts came over the synthetic surface @ Hollywood. Could be that he prefers dirt, but more importantly, it appears he has returned for his 3yo season a much-improved animal to what i saw last year (and he wasn't bad as a 2yo, winning a stakes race in his career debut, in fact). Main issue aside from the new surface today is that he he ran by far his career-worst race in his only two-turn start, that coming in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. It appears he had a very valid excuse however, drawn way out in the 12-hole and getting caught very wide on the first turn before clipping heels with another horse and almost going down. Seems like a pretty easy race to throw out, and as mentioned, he seems to be a different horse right now anyway. Should get at least a moderate (and likely contested) pace up front to set up his late run, and i think there'll definitely be some value here as Tapiture and Strong Mandate both figure to attract a lot of support, while many people will likely be turned off by our guy's flop around two turns. Not crazy about the outside post-draw, but the 8-hole isn't a total nightmare, and it looks like there's a pretty decent run into the first turn, so i'm not overly concerned about it. Suspect this may be Kobe's big coming-out party as a legit Derby prospect.
Btw, i also wanted to give you guys a heads-up on a first-time starter over @ Gulfstream today, that being #3 Chique to Chique (15/1 ml) in Race 11. Trained by Roger Attfield, who can be quite deadly with turf maidens debuting @ Gulfstream, this one has worked heads-up 4 times in a row with Lady Empress, who is entered in Race 3 today (also listed @ 15/1 ml). So, if Lady Empress should win in Race 3 (or at least run well), then Chique to Chique might be a big overlay in Race 11. We shall see.
HRT record:
94 for 353 (27%)
$807.30 mutuels ($8.59 avg)
#8 Kobe's Back (7/2 ml)
Flashy late-running gray from the Sadler barn had reportedly been training exceptionally well for his 3yo debut last month, and ran an absolutely dynamite race (against a very sub-optimal pace scenario) to draw away very impressively in fast time. Also worth noting, that was his first ran on dirt, as all three of his 2yo starts came over the synthetic surface @ Hollywood. Could be that he prefers dirt, but more importantly, it appears he has returned for his 3yo season a much-improved animal to what i saw last year (and he wasn't bad as a 2yo, winning a stakes race in his career debut, in fact). Main issue aside from the new surface today is that he he ran by far his career-worst race in his only two-turn start, that coming in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. It appears he had a very valid excuse however, drawn way out in the 12-hole and getting caught very wide on the first turn before clipping heels with another horse and almost going down. Seems like a pretty easy race to throw out, and as mentioned, he seems to be a different horse right now anyway. Should get at least a moderate (and likely contested) pace up front to set up his late run, and i think there'll definitely be some value here as Tapiture and Strong Mandate both figure to attract a lot of support, while many people will likely be turned off by our guy's flop around two turns. Not crazy about the outside post-draw, but the 8-hole isn't a total nightmare, and it looks like there's a pretty decent run into the first turn, so i'm not overly concerned about it. Suspect this may be Kobe's big coming-out party as a legit Derby prospect.
Btw, i also wanted to give you guys a heads-up on a first-time starter over @ Gulfstream today, that being #3 Chique to Chique (15/1 ml) in Race 11. Trained by Roger Attfield, who can be quite deadly with turf maidens debuting @ Gulfstream, this one has worked heads-up 4 times in a row with Lady Empress, who is entered in Race 3 today (also listed @ 15/1 ml). So, if Lady Empress should win in Race 3 (or at least run well), then Chique to Chique might be a big overlay in Race 11. We shall see.
HRT record:
94 for 353 (27%)
$807.30 mutuels ($8.59 avg)
Comments
Right now the rain is holding off----but around post time it may be a swamp? Sure hope not!!
I meet John in 2010 at Churchill Downs, straight up man. We sat down and spoke at length that moring of the Oaks and he straight up told me that moring if the skys open up and its soup in the morning go to the windows on Mona DeMomma and I did and crushed everything that race, also I posted it here for my forum buddies as well. Just search for it in the archives!!!
#CashingTickets
Ok, I stopped to watch the finish. The half to Executiveprividge looked really nice, and Tapiture was loaded as well. We'll see if this stands up.