Sunland Derby play
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Sunland Park - Race 11
#9 Chitu (4/1 ml)
Several angles in play here. First off, as you know, Baffert practically owns this race (the Sunland Derby). It's rare when one of his horses doesn't win this one. Secondly, Chitu is the "other" Baffert, because the 5/2 ml favorite here is barnmate Midnight Hawk, who just ran strong second behind California Chrome in the Grade 2 San Felipe. The thing is though, Chitu has already beaten Midnight Hawk on the square (at a bigger price that day, too), even more impressive when you consider that Chitu was making his two-turn debut in that race (stretching out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles). Now, while Midnight Hawk showed excellent speed last time out while battling up front with California Chrome thru torrid fractions (before getting left in the dust down the stretch), it should be noted that the track was running extremely fast that day, so those fractions likely aren't as fast as they look on paper. That is backed up by the fact that Chitu outfooted Midnight Hawk to the front in the Bob Lewis Stakes (despite breaking from the far outside post, btw), and not only held Midnight Hawk at bay, but nearly won the race before the very solid colt Candy Boy (whom we were on that day) came running late to catch him at the wire. As mentioned, Chitu was making his two-turn debut that day, and figures to make a nice move forward here, which brings me to a third angle. You probably remember me noting several times over the years that Baffert is known to work his very top-echelon trainees 7 furlongs before a race. This is NOT something he does all the time, so it's always worth taking note of when he does do it. And as mentioned, he doesn't do it with just anybody. Only the good ones. So that's a very positive sign indeed. And lastly, Sunland Park (at least in this race) tends to be very kind to speed, which should boost this one's chances even further. Lots to like here, and very likely at an overlaid price. Deserves to be favored and probably won't be.
HRT record:
94 for 354 (26%)
$807.30 mutuels ($8.59 avg)
#9 Chitu (4/1 ml)
Several angles in play here. First off, as you know, Baffert practically owns this race (the Sunland Derby). It's rare when one of his horses doesn't win this one. Secondly, Chitu is the "other" Baffert, because the 5/2 ml favorite here is barnmate Midnight Hawk, who just ran strong second behind California Chrome in the Grade 2 San Felipe. The thing is though, Chitu has already beaten Midnight Hawk on the square (at a bigger price that day, too), even more impressive when you consider that Chitu was making his two-turn debut in that race (stretching out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles). Now, while Midnight Hawk showed excellent speed last time out while battling up front with California Chrome thru torrid fractions (before getting left in the dust down the stretch), it should be noted that the track was running extremely fast that day, so those fractions likely aren't as fast as they look on paper. That is backed up by the fact that Chitu outfooted Midnight Hawk to the front in the Bob Lewis Stakes (despite breaking from the far outside post, btw), and not only held Midnight Hawk at bay, but nearly won the race before the very solid colt Candy Boy (whom we were on that day) came running late to catch him at the wire. As mentioned, Chitu was making his two-turn debut that day, and figures to make a nice move forward here, which brings me to a third angle. You probably remember me noting several times over the years that Baffert is known to work his very top-echelon trainees 7 furlongs before a race. This is NOT something he does all the time, so it's always worth taking note of when he does do it. And as mentioned, he doesn't do it with just anybody. Only the good ones. So that's a very positive sign indeed. And lastly, Sunland Park (at least in this race) tends to be very kind to speed, which should boost this one's chances even further. Lots to like here, and very likely at an overlaid price. Deserves to be favored and probably won't be.
HRT record:
94 for 354 (26%)
$807.30 mutuels ($8.59 avg)
Comments
Rate the hawk that day.